15 point match
Green-White:
Score 0-0
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Pip: 189 | |
| Game 1 15 point match Green-White: Score 0-0 |
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| Pip: 137 |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R | 13/7* 6/1 | 0,748 |
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0,498 ±0,013. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 11, 288 games (equiv. 45674 games), played 2-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | |||
| 2 | R | 20/15 13/7* | 0,706 (-0,042) |
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0,483 ±0,013. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 11, 288 games (equiv. 43476 games), played 2-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | |||
| 3 | R | 13/7* 13/8 | 0,672 (-0,077) |
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0,468 ±0,012. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 11, 288 games (equiv. 44462 games), played 2-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | |||
| 4 | 3 | 20/14 20/15 | 0,709 (-0,040) |
| 5 | 2 | 20/9 | 0,619 (-0,130) |
| Cube action |
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When defending against a backgame, dumping a checker in order to recirculate it, is a play often overlooked but it's second nature for the masters of backgame. In this position, White's timing is fragile. Green certainly must hit with the six, otherwise White could easily transpose into a holding game by making Green's bar point and play from there -- this underlines another concept, namely that one should try by all means to make sure that his opponent will be committed to a backgame. After that, the rest of the roll [the 5] becomes interesting: 20/15 or even 13/8 are not actually bad plays, just innacurate -- Green must play 6/1! praying to be hit [White is obliged to hit immediately with seven rolls [1-1, 1-4, 1-5 and 1-6 and some more in the future, for example after dancing or after another White checker is hit]. If the checker on the ace point is hit, Green loses 24 pips in the race, but actually wins 24 timing pips and White's timing becomes really suspect. Expert Gammon [1296 tries 3-ply rollout with Variance Reduction ] agrees with Snowie's results. |