15 point match
Green-White:
Score 0-0
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Pip: 186 | |
| Game 1 15 point match Green-White: Score 0-0 |
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| Pip: 125 |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R | 21/15*/3 7/1* | 0,614 |
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0,435 ±0,026. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 11, 144 games (equiv. 11369 games), played 2-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | |||
| 2 | R | 21/15* 8/2 7/1*(2) | 0,456 (-0,158) |
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0,362 ±0,026. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 11, 144 games (equiv. 14506 games), played 2-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | |||
| 3 | R | 21/15*/9 9/3(2) | 0,418 (-0,196) |
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0,330 ±0,030. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 11, 144 games (equiv. 8371 games), played 2-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | |||
| 4 | R | 21/15* 9/3(2) 7/1* | 0,378 (-0,236) |
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0,291 ±0,025. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 11, 144 games (equiv. 13026 games), played 2-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | |||
| 5 | R | 21/15*/9 8/2 7/1* | 0,346 (-0,268) |
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0,283 ±0,026. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 11, 144 games (equiv. 11997 games), played 2-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. |
| Cube action |
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What would be more automatic than the 'obvious' 21/15* 8/2 7/1*(2), putting two blots on the bar and most probably depriving Red of a third backgame point? (interestingly enough, this play is both Snowie's and Extreme Gammon's 3-ply choice). Still, this play is a big blunder after the rollout [Extreme Gammon 3-ply with Variance Reduction 1296 games agrees] and the winner by far is the spectacular 21/15*/3 7/1* which leaves volitionally three inner board blots! Once more, timing is key : Green welcomes the hit of one or more of those blots, as this would permit their 'recirculation'. While the recirculated checkers will have no big problem passing over the anaemic three-point enemy prime on their way to control the outfield and hopefully make sometimes even the 11 point and a six-prime hemming in Red's back checkers, Red will be forced to move and destroy his fragile by then timing. After 21/15* 8/2 7/1*(2) Red's timimg is okay and it is Green who will have difficulty remaking the 8 and 7 points and bringing home his disjoint position. In this case, three outfield blots, hit by indirect future shots, are proven much worse than three inner board blots which can be hit by immediate direct shots. |