15 point match
Green-White:
Score 8-10
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Pip: 122 | |
| Game 1 15 point match Green-White: Score 8-10 |
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| Pip: 182 |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R | bar/22 6/4* | -0,403 |
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0,378 ±0,018. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 11, 144 games (equiv. 16892 games), played 2-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | |||
| 2 | R | bar/22 13/11 | -0,498 (-0,095) |
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0,425 ±0,019. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 11, 144 games (equiv. 15336 games), played 2-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | |||
| 3 | R | bar/22 7/5 | -0,519 (-0,116) |
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0,426 ±0,018. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 11, 144 games (equiv. 16243 games), played 2-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | |||
| 4 | R | bar/22 8/6 | -0,574 (-0,171) |
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0,457 ±0,019. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 11, 144 games (equiv. 13484 games), played 2-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | |||
| 5 | R | bar/23 8/5 | -0,798 (-0,394) |
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0,580 ±0,019. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 11, 144 games (equiv. 15843 games), played 2-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. |
| Alert: Blunder (0,394) |
| Cube action |
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It becomes clear from the rollout that any play that does not anchor on the 22 point is a mega-blunder. The natural [making a four-prime] pick in this group and at the same time best [only (!) -0.394 from the best anchoring play] is B/23 8/5. This play is tempting as it leaves a false sense of safety: it looks like White can hit effectively only from the 6 point. In practice, White will break gleefully even the 8 point in order to hit Green's blots [in the actual game White rolled a 5-1 played 8/3*/2*]. From the anchoring plays, winner by far is B/22 6/4* ! The reason for this spectacular play is that Green's most viable plan is to play a backgame. For the moment his timimg for a backgame is fragile [only 55 pips down after playing his roll, while he roughly needs - as a rule of thump in most backgames - the sum of his back checkers' pips, which is 23x4=92]. Actually Green WANTS to be hit in order to improve his timimg, but even if he is not hit, he has some chances of going forward, half-looking at White's other blot on his 14 point. |