mman vs. Iskandar

13 point match, Score is mman: 14, Iskandar: 12


Τελικός του 5ου Διαδικτυακού Πρωταθλήματος Ελλάδος 2018, μεταξύ του Μιχάλη Μανωλιού (mman) και του Μίμη Τσακωνιάτη (Iskandar).
Σχόλια: Μιχάλης Μανωλιός

mman  Category Iskandar 
World Class (-0.0092) Total Error Expert (-0.0132)
World Class (-0.0093) Checker Play Expert (-0.0129)
World Class (-0.0092) Cube Play Expert (-0.0143)
4.62 Performance Rating 6.58

mman  Iskandar 
World Champ. (+0.0000) Game 1 World Champ. (+0.0000)
Advanced (-0.0195) Game 2 Expert (-0.0140)
World Class (-0.0064) Game 3 Intermediate (-0.0260)
World Class (-0.0096) Game 4 Expert (-0.0134)
World Champ. (-0.0008) Game 5 Beginner (-0.0509)
World Champ. (-0.0041) Game 6 World Class (-0.0053)
Expert (-0.0102) Game 7 World Class (-0.0100)
Advanced (-0.0169) Game 8 Expert (-0.0142)
World Champ. (-0.0021) Game 9 World Champ. (-0.0039)
Expert (-0.0137) Game 10 World Class (-0.0062)

mman  Category Iskandar 
25(9) Move Errors 29(10)
-1.851(-22.22%) Equity lost (cost) -2.408(-23.46%)
     
2 Double Errors 5(3)
-0.112(-0.78%) Equity lost (cost) -0.487(-4.04%)
     
2(1) Take Errors 0
-0.127(-0.73%) Equity lost (cost) +0.000
     
29(10) Total Error 34(13)
-2.090(-23.74%) Equity lost (cost) -2.895(-27.50%)
     
26 Jokers 25
-1.478(+48.54%) Luck +1.478(-48.54%)
     
World Class Level of Play Expert
4.62 Performance Rating 6.58

Location: GamesGrid Games Server
Played on: 03-Mar-18
At: 9:42:34 PM


mman: Elo= 1946, Exp=10714

Iskandar: Elo= 1717, Exp=3011

 Game 1

13 point match, Score is mman: 0, Iskandar: 0

 
 43: 13/10 13/9 
Pip=167-167
1.playedBook113/10 13/9eq: +0.015
Player:
Opponent:		49.78% (G:14.86% B:0.73%)
50.22% (G:13.37% B:0.73%)
2.Book124/21 13/9eq: +0.003 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		49.83% (G:13.75% B:0.67%)
50.17% (G:13.05% B:0.57%)
3.Book124/20 13/10eq: +0.003 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		50.06% (G:13.31% B:0.60%)
49.94% (G:13.22% B:0.57%)
4.Book124/21 24/20eq: -0.018 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		49.74% (G:11.93% B:0.56%)
50.26% (G:12.96% B:0.45%)
5.Book113/9 8/5eq: -0.073 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:		48.04% (G:14.03% B:0.59%)
51.96% (G:14.68% B:0.92%)
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 21-May-11 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
 
 61: 13/7 8/7 
Pip=160-167
1.played4-ply13/7 8/7eq: -0.069
Player:
Opponent:		48.94% (G:12.95% B:0.64%)
51.06% (G:15.93% B:0.87%)
2.4-ply24/23 24/18eq: -0.250 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent:		44.82% (G:10.60% B:0.53%)
55.18% (G:18.25% B:0.63%)
3.4-ply13/7 6/5eq: -0.253 (-0.184)
Player:
Opponent:		44.86% (G:11.50% B:0.55%)
55.14% (G:18.45% B:1.53%)
4.4-ply24/23 13/7eq: -0.274 (-0.204)
Player:
Opponent:		43.87% (G:11.33% B:0.54%)
56.13% (G:18.38% B:0.95%)
5.4-ply24/18 6/5eq: -0.302 (-0.233)
Player:
Opponent:		44.39% (G:10.92% B:0.58%)
55.61% (G:21.15% B:1.08%)
 
 21: 24/22 10/9 
Pip=160-160
1.playedXG Roller++24/22 10/9eq: -0.033
Player:
Opponent:		49.10% (G:12.98% B:0.54%)
50.90% (G:13.59% B:0.49%)
2.XG Roller++9/7 8/7eq: -0.077 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		48.05% (G:13.73% B:0.63%)
51.95% (G:14.97% B:0.80%)
3.XG Roller++13/11 10/9eq: -0.134 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:		46.50% (G:13.60% B:0.72%)
53.50% (G:15.44% B:0.83%)
4.XG Roller++10/9 6/4eq: -0.147 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:		46.44% (G:12.73% B:0.59%)
53.56% (G:15.13% B:0.89%)
5.XG Roller++13/10eq: -0.157 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent:		45.84% (G:13.65% B:0.70%)
54.16% (G:15.41% B:0.86%)

"Κίνηση που κάνει δύο δουλειές είναι συνήθως καλύτερη από κίνηση που κάνει μόνο μία." (Backgammon by the Bay) Εδώ έχουμε πόρτα και διαχωρισμό έναντι μόνο πόρτας.
 
 55: 8/3*(2) 6/1*(2)  
Pip=157-160
1.played4-ply8/3*(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.530
Player:
Opponent:		58.54% (G:29.83% B:0.45%)
41.46% (G:10.05% B:0.49%)
2.4-ply13/3*(2) eq: +0.314 (-0.216)
Player:
Opponent:		56.10% (G:21.02% B:0.84%)
43.90% (G:10.96% B:0.51%)
3.4-ply13/3* 8/3 6/1* eq: +0.266 (-0.264)
Player:
Opponent:		53.43% (G:23.96% B:0.54%)
46.57% (G:12.25% B:0.70%)
4.4-ply13/3* 6/1*(2) eq: +0.243 (-0.287)
Player:
Opponent:		52.85% (G:23.69% B:0.39%)
47.15% (G:12.17% B:0.62%)
5.3-ply8/3*(2) 7/2(2)eq: +0.188 (-0.342)
Player:
Opponent:		52.86% (G:20.47% B:0.82%)
47.14% (G:11.85% B:0.63%)
 
 52: Bar/23 Bar/20 
Pip=161-140
1.played3-plyBar/23 Bar/20eq: -0.260
Player:
Opponent:		46.64% (G:11.56% B:0.61%)
53.36% (G:23.71% B:0.39%)
 
 21: 7/5* 6/5 
Pip=154-140
1.played3-ply7/5* 6/5eq: +0.550
Player:
Opponent:		58.44% (G:28.37% B:0.69%)
41.56% (G:9.44% B:0.47%)
2.3-ply13/11 6/5* eq: +0.088 (-0.462)
Player:
Opponent:		49.47% (G:20.76% B:0.56%)
50.53% (G:13.57% B:0.93%)
3.3-ply6/5* 5/3eq: +0.034 (-0.516)
Player:
Opponent:		48.99% (G:19.01% B:0.44%)
51.01% (G:13.25% B:0.71%)
4.3-ply24/23 7/5* eq: +0.022 (-0.528)
Player:
Opponent:		48.41% (G:19.59% B:0.52%)
51.59% (G:14.45% B:0.89%)
5.3-ply24/22 6/5* eq: -0.001 (-0.551)
Player:
Opponent:		47.99% (G:18.24% B:0.44%)
52.01% (G:12.71% B:0.68%)
 
 65: Cannot Move 
Pip=159-137
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -0.981
Player:
Opponent:		34.73% (G:7.54% B:0.36%)
65.27% (G:37.86% B:0.57%)
 
 Double/Pass 
Pip=159-137
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 65.63% (G:38.61% B:0.63%) 65.93% (G:39.88% B:0.72%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 34.37% (G:7.97% B:0.44%) 34.07% (G:8.20% B:0.52%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.629 +1.317
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.790 (-0.210)±0.012 (+0.778..+0.802)
xg Double/Take:+1.028 (+0.028)±0.018 (+1.010..+1.046)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 99.9%
Duration: 17 minutes 23 seconds

Προφανώς φοβήθηκα τα διπλά. Δεν ήξερα πάντως ότι είναι τόσο κοντά στο take.
 
 Wins 1pt. 

Game Summary:

mman  Category Iskandar 
World Champ. (+0.0000) Total Error World Champ. (+0.0000)
World Champ. (+0.0000) Checker Play World Champ. (+0.0000)
World Champ. (+0.0000) Cube Play World Champ. (+0.0000)
0.00 Performance Rating 0.00
0 Move Errors 0
+0.000 Equity lost (cost) +0.000
     
0 Double Errors 0
+0.000 Equity lost (cost) +0.000
     
0 Take Errors 0
+0.000 Equity lost (cost) +0.000
     
0 Total Error 0
+0.000 Equity lost (cost) +0.000
     
0 Jokers 2
-0.973(-4.29%) Luck +0.973(+4.29%)

 Game 2

13 point match, Score is mman: 0, Iskandar: 1

 
 31: 8/5 6/5 
Pip=167-167
1.playedBook18/5 6/5eq: +0.226
Player:
Opponent:		55.30% (G:16.39% B:0.68%)
44.70% (G:11.19% B:0.47%)
2.Book124/23 13/10eq: -0.023 (-0.249)
Player:
Opponent:		49.62% (G:13.69% B:0.54%)
50.38% (G:13.52% B:0.59%)
3.Book113/10 6/5eq: -0.041 (-0.266)
Player:
Opponent:		49.61% (G:13.52% B:0.53%)
50.39% (G:14.07% B:0.87%)
4.Book113/9eq: -0.048 (-0.274)
Player:
Opponent:		49.06% (G:13.76% B:0.63%)
50.94% (G:13.88% B:0.67%)
5.Book124/20eq: -0.052 (-0.278)
Player:
Opponent:		49.13% (G:12.53% B:0.57%)
50.87% (G:13.47% B:0.51%)
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 21-May-11 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
 
 42: 8/4 6/4 
Pip=167-163
1.playedXG Roller++8/4 6/4eq: -0.178
Player:
Opponent:		45.48% (G:12.76% B:0.54%)
54.52% (G:16.43% B:0.80%)
2.XG Roller++24/22 13/9eq: -0.332 (-0.154)
Player:
Opponent:		42.06% (G:10.77% B:0.46%)
57.94% (G:17.82% B:0.85%)
3.4-ply13/11 13/9eq: -0.360 (-0.182)
Player:
Opponent:		41.26% (G:11.16% B:0.53%)
58.74% (G:18.70% B:1.21%)
4.4-ply24/18eq: -0.366 (-0.188)
Player:
Opponent:		41.84% (G:9.22% B:0.40%)
58.16% (G:19.35% B:0.73%)
5.4-ply13/9 6/4eq: -0.451 (-0.273)
Player:
Opponent:		39.96% (G:9.74% B:0.42%)
60.04% (G:20.37% B:1.60%)
 
 41: 24/23 13/9 
Pip=161-163
1.xgXG Roller++24/20 6/5eq: +0.084
Player:
Opponent:		52.44% (G:14.71% B:0.71%)
47.56% (G:13.40% B:0.53%)
2.playedXG Roller++24/23 13/9eq: +0.068 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		51.91% (G:15.88% B:0.75%)
48.09% (G:14.43% B:0.63%)
3.XG Roller++13/9 6/5eq: +0.062 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		51.71% (G:16.00% B:0.76%)
48.29% (G:14.42% B:0.77%)
4.XG Roller++24/23 24/20eq: +0.050 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		51.59% (G:14.09% B:0.64%)
48.41% (G:13.43% B:0.49%)
5.XG Roller++13/8eq: +0.037 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		51.06% (G:15.36% B:0.70%)
48.94% (G:14.20% B:0.67%)
 
 51: 24/23 13/8 
Pip=161-158
1.playedXG Roller++24/23 13/8eq: -0.190
Player:
Opponent:		45.45% (G:12.67% B:0.53%)
54.55% (G:17.28% B:0.71%)
2.XG Roller++24/18eq: -0.245 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:		44.65% (G:11.63% B:0.57%)
55.35% (G:19.04% B:0.71%)
3.XG Roller++24/23 6/1* eq: -0.325 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:		42.20% (G:11.74% B:0.42%)
57.80% (G:18.54% B:0.94%)
4.4-ply13/8 6/5eq: -0.377 (-0.187)
Player:
Opponent:		41.17% (G:10.69% B:0.46%)
58.83% (G:19.25% B:1.37%)
5.4-ply13/7eq: -0.418 (-0.228)
Player:
Opponent:		39.81% (G:10.58% B:0.44%)
60.19% (G:19.21% B:1.36%)
 
 41: 13/9 6/5 
Pip=155-158
1.playedXG Roller++13/9 6/5eq: +0.134
Player:
Opponent:		53.61% (G:16.44% B:0.67%)
46.39% (G:14.13% B:0.59%)
2.XG Roller++23/22 13/9eq: +0.109 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		53.09% (G:16.09% B:0.69%)
46.91% (G:14.25% B:0.58%)
3.XG Roller++24/23 13/9eq: +0.080 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:		51.79% (G:15.68% B:0.57%)
48.21% (G:13.07% B:0.57%)
4.XG Roller++6/2* 2/1* eq: +0.060 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:		51.31% (G:18.11% B:0.45%)
48.69% (G:14.94% B:0.85%)
5.XG Roller++24/20 9/8eq: -0.013 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:		50.27% (G:14.26% B:0.72%)
49.73% (G:15.03% B:0.55%)
 
 65: 24/18 23/18 
Pip=155-153
1.played3-ply24/18 23/18eq: +0.232
Player:
Opponent:		56.23% (G:12.31% B:0.43%)
43.77% (G:9.45% B:0.23%)
2.3-ply24/13eq: -0.151 (-0.383)
Player:
Opponent:		46.75% (G:11.03% B:0.45%)
53.25% (G:16.46% B:0.36%)
3.3-ply24/18 13/8eq: -0.323 (-0.556)
Player:
Opponent:		42.76% (G:12.25% B:0.71%)
57.24% (G:21.09% B:0.67%)
4.3-ply13/2* eq: -0.333 (-0.565)
Player:
Opponent:		41.10% (G:12.62% B:0.50%)
58.90% (G:17.95% B:1.03%)
5.3-ply23/18 8/2* eq: -0.380 (-0.612)
Player:
Opponent:		41.52% (G:11.28% B:0.53%)
58.48% (G:20.85% B:1.19%)
 
 21: 24/22 23/22 
Pip=144-153
1.playedXG Roller++24/22 23/22eq: -0.223
Player:
Opponent:		43.04% (G:7.93% B:0.21%)
56.96% (G:8.12% B:0.21%)
2.XG Roller++6/4 5/4eq: -0.263 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		43.43% (G:9.39% B:0.31%)
56.57% (G:12.80% B:0.33%)
3.XG Roller++23/20eq: -0.319 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:		42.50% (G:9.02% B:0.31%)
57.50% (G:14.21% B:0.41%)
4.XG Roller++23/22 6/4eq: -0.326 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:		42.27% (G:9.54% B:0.33%)
57.73% (G:15.36% B:0.45%)
5.XG Roller++23/22 5/3eq: -0.350 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:		41.74% (G:9.59% B:0.33%)
58.26% (G:15.87% B:0.48%)

Το 22 επείγει, ενώ το 4 μπορεί να γίνει και αργότερα.
 
 43: 13/6 
Pip=144-150
1.playedXG Roller++13/6eq: +0.148
Player:
Opponent:		54.71% (G:7.84% B:0.21%)
45.29% (G:8.51% B:0.24%)
2.XG Roller++13/10 6/2eq: +0.114 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		53.58% (G:8.32% B:0.21%)
46.42% (G:8.89% B:0.28%)
3.XG Roller++13/10 8/4eq: +0.086 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		52.89% (G:8.23% B:0.22%)
47.11% (G:9.28% B:0.29%)
4.XG Roller++8/1eq: +0.052 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:		52.29% (G:8.19% B:0.18%)
47.71% (G:10.47% B:0.30%)
5.XG Roller++8/5 6/2eq: +0.003 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		50.76% (G:8.94% B:0.25%)
49.24% (G:11.34% B:0.37%)
 
 31: 13/9 
Pip=137-150
1.playedXG Roller++13/9eq: -0.202
Player:
Opponent:		43.49% (G:8.36% B:0.22%)
56.51% (G:7.73% B:0.20%)
2.XG Roller++6/3 5/4eq: -0.214 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		43.57% (G:8.81% B:0.25%)
56.43% (G:9.20% B:0.33%)
3.XG Roller++9/8 9/6eq: -0.234 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		42.58% (G:8.11% B:0.20%)
57.42% (G:7.83% B:0.21%)
4.XG Roller++13/10 5/4eq: -0.240 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		43.00% (G:8.93% B:0.26%)
57.00% (G:9.63% B:0.32%)
5.XG Roller++6/2eq: -0.251 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		42.49% (G:8.52% B:0.22%)
57.51% (G:9.01% B:0.27%)
 
 31: 8/5 6/5 
Pip=137-146
1.played4-ply8/5 6/5eq: +0.358
Player:
Opponent:		60.46% (G:9.24% B:0.24%)
39.54% (G:6.68% B:0.19%)
2.4-ply6/2eq: +0.124 (-0.234)
Player:
Opponent:		54.31% (G:8.06% B:0.18%)
45.69% (G:8.99% B:0.29%)
3.4-ply8/4eq: +0.066 (-0.292)
Player:
Opponent:		52.74% (G:7.74% B:0.18%)
47.26% (G:9.56% B:0.30%)
4.3-ply13/10 6/5eq: +0.040 (-0.318)
Player:
Opponent:		52.01% (G:9.60% B:0.26%)
47.99% (G:11.34% B:0.39%)
5.3-ply13/9eq: -0.019 (-0.377)
Player:
Opponent:		49.97% (G:8.47% B:0.20%)
50.03% (G:10.17% B:0.31%)
 
 65: 8/3 8/2 
Pip=133-146
1.playedXG Roller++8/3 8/2eq: -0.465
Player:
Opponent:		37.35% (G:7.68% B:0.21%)
62.65% (G:11.91% B:0.40%)
2.XG Roller++9/3 6/1eq: -0.515 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		36.16% (G:6.80% B:0.13%)
63.84% (G:11.29% B:0.38%)
3.XG Roller++9/3 8/3eq: -0.524 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		36.00% (G:7.45% B:0.19%)
64.00% (G:11.73% B:0.37%)
4.XG Roller++9/4 9/3eq: -0.553 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:		35.14% (G:6.94% B:0.18%)
64.86% (G:11.38% B:0.41%)
5.XG Roller++9/4 8/2eq: -0.581 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:		34.51% (G:6.92% B:0.18%)
65.49% (G:12.13% B:0.47%)

Με τόσο ισχυρό αντίπαλο στρατόπεδο δεν είναι καλή ιδέα να αφήσει κανείς αχρείαστες βολές (κάνοντας την πόρτα του 3), ενώ το 9/3 6/1 θάβει πούλι.
 
 No double 
Pip=133-135
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 62.61% (G:11.95% B:0.44%) 62.57% (G:12.07% B:0.44%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 37.39% (G:7.42% B:0.23%) 37.43% (G:7.46% B:0.22%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.299 +0.607
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.471
     Double/Take:+0.355 (-0.116)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.529)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.3%
 
 53: 18/15 18/13 
Pip=133-135
1.xgXG Roller++13/10 13/8eq: +0.471
Player:
Opponent:		62.41% (G:12.55% B:0.43%)
37.59% (G:7.06% B:0.24%)
2.playedXG Roller++18/15 18/13eq: +0.459 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		63.26% (G:6.77% B:0.28%)
36.74% (G:5.58% B:0.09%)
3.XG Roller++13/5eq: +0.390 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:		60.33% (G:11.18% B:0.33%)
39.67% (G:7.29% B:0.18%)
4.XG Roller++13/10 6/1eq: +0.363 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:		59.66% (G:11.50% B:0.29%)
40.34% (G:8.28% B:0.23%)
5.4-ply18/10eq: +0.271 (-0.201)
Player:
Opponent:		58.44% (G:9.85% B:0.38%)
41.56% (G:10.55% B:0.23%)

Εδώ σκέφτηκα ότι εφόσον προηγούμαι στην κούρσα, είναι μια καλή ευκαιρία να τρέξω λόγω των δύο αντίπαλων εσωτερικών blots.
Το XG προκρίνει για λίγο την προσπάθεια να φτιαχτούν πόρτες στο outfield. Και τα δύο παιξίματα έχουν το πλεονέκτημα ότι πιθανό χτύπημα θα χαλάσει τη γυμνή αντίπαλη midpoint.
 
 42: 6/2 5/3 
Pip=125-135
1.playedXG Roller++6/2 5/3eq: -0.610
Player:
Opponent:		32.14% (G:2.54% B:0.04%)
67.86% (G:4.37% B:0.10%)
2.XG Roller++9/7 6/2eq: -0.634 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		31.56% (G:2.58% B:0.04%)
68.44% (G:4.99% B:0.16%)
3.XG Roller++9/3eq: -0.638 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		31.47% (G:2.55% B:0.05%)
68.53% (G:4.90% B:0.15%)
4.XG Roller++6/2 3/1eq: -0.684 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:		30.56% (G:2.85% B:0.04%)
69.44% (G:5.93% B:0.19%)
5.XG Roller++9/7 9/5eq: -0.688 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:		30.40% (G:2.52% B:0.04%)
69.60% (G:5.18% B:0.22%)
 
 No double 
Pip=125-129
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 67.78% (G:4.72% B:0.12%) 67.82% (G:4.56% B:0.11%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 32.22% (G:2.81% B:0.05%) 32.18% (G:2.48% B:0.04%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.375 +0.760
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.618
     Double/Take:+0.540 (-0.078)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.382)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.6%
 
 63: 15/6 
Pip=125-129
1.played3-ply15/6eq: +0.627
Player:
Opponent:		69.02% (G:3.91% B:0.05%)
30.98% (G:1.71% B:0.02%)
2.3-ply13/4eq: +0.248 (-0.379)
Player:
Opponent:		58.72% (G:6.14% B:0.18%)
41.28% (G:8.64% B:0.08%)
3.3-ply15/9 13/10eq: +0.211 (-0.416)
Player:
Opponent:		57.60% (G:6.35% B:0.23%)
42.40% (G:12.49% B:0.19%)
4.3-ply8/5 8/2eq: -0.034 (-0.661)
Player:
Opponent:		51.83% (G:6.08% B:0.15%)
48.17% (G:12.61% B:0.12%)
5.2-ply13/10 13/7eq: -0.212 (-0.839)
Player:
Opponent:		47.98% (G:8.44% B:0.37%)
52.02% (G:23.76% B:1.37%)
 
 42: 9/7 9/5 
Pip=116-129
1.playedXG Roller++9/7 9/5eq: -0.726
Player:
Opponent:		28.70% (G:1.18% B:0.02%)
71.30% (G:3.65% B:0.05%)
2.XG Roller++13/11 13/9eq: -0.733 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		28.45% (G:1.14% B:0.02%)
71.55% (G:3.51% B:0.05%)
3.XG Roller++9/3eq: -0.751 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:		28.20% (G:1.18% B:0.01%)
71.80% (G:4.00% B:0.07%)
4.XG Roller++9/5 6/4eq: -0.751 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		28.22% (G:1.35% B:0.02%)
71.78% (G:4.02% B:0.09%)
5.XG Roller++9/5 3/1eq: -0.754 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:		28.50% (G:1.91% B:0.03%)
71.50% (G:5.27% B:0.18%)
 
 No double 
Pip=116-123
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 71.30% (G:3.94% B:0.10%) 71.42% (G:3.99% B:0.10%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 28.70% (G:1.26% B:0.02%) 28.58% (G:1.23% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.454 +0.921
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.742
     Double/Take:+0.735 (-0.007)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.258)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.4%

Λόγω του ότι η anchor του είναι στο 22 και όχι πιο ψηλά, ο βίδος γίνεται ελκυστικός, παρά το μικρό προβάδισμα στην κούρσα.
Είναι από τις αποφάσεις που μπορεί κανείς να πάρει με βάση τη διαφορά δυναμικότητας των παικτών. (Γενικά, ο ισχυρότερος παίκτης παίζει λίγο συντηριτικότερα με τη χρήση του βίδου, με σκοπό το ματς να κριθεί σε περισσότερα games, ώστε να δώσει στον αντίπαλο τη δυνατότητα να κάνει περισσότερα λάθη απ' ό,τι εκείνος. Το αντίθετο ισχύει για τον πιο αδύναμο παίκτή: γενικά, πρέπει να είναι λιγο επιθετικότερος με τη χρήση του βίδου).


 
 31: 6/2 
Pip=116-123
1.playedXG Roller++6/2eq: +0.616
Player:
Opponent:		67.98% (G:4.00% B:0.08%)
32.02% (G:1.58% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++13/10 6/5eq: +0.569 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		66.61% (G:4.76% B:0.16%)
33.39% (G:3.37% B:0.05%)
3.4-ply5/4 5/2eq: +0.343 (-0.273)
Player:
Opponent:		61.04% (G:3.08% B:0.05%)
38.96% (G:2.61% B:0.04%)
4.3-ply13/9eq: +0.181 (-0.434)
Player:
Opponent:		57.14% (G:6.36% B:0.29%)
42.86% (G:9.12% B:0.10%)
5.3-ply8/7 8/5eq: +0.158 (-0.458)
Player:
Opponent:		56.50% (G:5.50% B:0.18%)
43.50% (G:8.83% B:0.12%)
 
 22: 9/1 
Pip=112-123
1.xgXG Roller++13/11 13/7eq: -0.680
Player:
Opponent:		30.40% (G:1.47% B:0.01%)
69.60% (G:4.11% B:0.11%)
2.XG Roller++13/9(2)eq: -0.685 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		30.19% (G:1.52% B:0.02%)
69.81% (G:4.10% B:0.08%)
3.XG Roller++13/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: -0.687 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		30.34% (G:1.56% B:0.02%)
69.66% (G:4.29% B:0.15%)
4.XG Roller++13/11(2) 5/1eq: -0.691 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		30.24% (G:1.73% B:0.01%)
69.76% (G:4.65% B:0.21%)
5.XG Roller++13/11 13/9 5/3eq: -0.695 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		30.02% (G:1.57% B:0.02%)
69.98% (G:4.40% B:0.14%)
6.playedXG Roller++9/1eq: -0.705 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		29.90% (G:1.62% B:0.01%)
70.10% (G:4.63% B:0.15%)

Μια συνηθισμένη περίπτωση, όπου πρέπει να κατέβουν τα δύο πούλια από τη midpoint, επειδή ο αντίπαλος έχει καλύτερο timing (θα παίξει με τα spare του).
Αν δεν γίνει τώρα, θα γίνει αργότερα, ενώ θα έχουν ήδη θαφτεί πούλια σ' αυτή τη ζαριά.
 
 No double 
Pip=112-115
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.22% (G:4.74% B:0.18%) 70.41% (G:4.68% B:0.17%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.78% (G:1.70% B:0.02%) 29.59% (G:1.55% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.437 +0.890
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.723
     Double/Take:+0.692 (-0.031)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.277)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.1%

Κι εδώ ο βίδος δεν θα ήταν πολύ λάθος, αν και το προβάδισμα στην κούρσα έχει μειωθεί.
Επειδή δεν ήμουν σίγουρος, συνυπολόγισα και τη διαφορά δυναμικότητας και αποφάσισα να περιμένω.
 
 11: 8/7(2) 6/5 2/1 
Pip=112-115
1.xgRollout18/7(2) 6/4eq: +0.655
Player:
Opponent:		67.95% (G:6.01% B:0.25%)
32.05% (G:2.51% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.645...+0.664) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 04 seconds
2.playedRollout18/7(2) 6/5 2/1eq: +0.597 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:		66.45% (G:6.46% B:0.19%)
33.55% (G:2.66% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.588...+0.606) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 47 seconds
3.XG Roller++8/7(2) 6/5(2)eq: +0.630 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		67.52% (G:5.96% B:0.17%)
32.48% (G:2.43% B:0.03%)
4.XG Roller++6/5 6/4 2/1eq: +0.534 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:		64.99% (G:5.71% B:0.17%)
35.01% (G:2.90% B:0.03%)
5.4-ply6/4(2)eq: +0.462 (-0.193)
Player:
Opponent:		64.20% (G:4.60% B:0.10%)
35.80% (G:2.61% B:0.03%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
 65: 13/8 13/7 
Pip=108-115
1.xgXG Roller++22/11eq: -0.445
Player:
Opponent:		36.96% (G:3.75% B:0.04%)
63.04% (G:8.55% B:0.18%)
2.playedXG Roller++13/8 13/7eq: -0.642 (-0.197)
Player:
Opponent:		32.33% (G:2.50% B:0.02%)
67.67% (G:6.62% B:0.15%)
3.4-ply22/17 7/1eq: -0.609 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:		34.32% (G:5.11% B:0.03%)
65.68% (G:14.47% B:0.24%)
4.4-ply13/8 7/1eq: -0.692 (-0.247)
Player:
Opponent:		29.76% (G:3.13% B:0.03%)
70.24% (G:6.76% B:0.11%)
5.4-ply7/1 6/1eq: -0.759 (-0.314)
Player:
Opponent:		29.27% (G:1.64% B:0.01%)
70.73% (G:7.30% B:0.12%)

Δεν θα έβρισκα το σωστό παίξειμο εδώ. Μάλιστα στην παρτίδα, ο Μίμης το δοκίμασε, και με θυμάμαι να παρακαλάω να το παίξει. :-)
Κατόπιν εορτής, μπορώ να εικάσω ότι πρέπει να τρέξει επειδή (α) μετά το 22/11 η κούρσα είναι ίση, (β) το blot στον άσο μου τον προστατεύει εν μέρει από την επίθεσή μου και (γ) το κυριότερο, έχω καλύτερο timing λόγω των spare στη midpoint μου.
Πάντως, ειλικρινά, δεν νομίζω ότι θα το παίξω σωστά όταν θα το ξαναδώ.
 
 No double 
Pip=108-104
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 67.51% (G:6.70% B:0.17%) 67.57% (G:6.52% B:0.16%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 32.49% (G:2.64% B:0.03%) 32.43% (G:2.46% B:0.03%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.392 +0.794
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.649
     Double/Take:+0.591 (-0.058)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.351)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.5%

Εδώ δεν βίδαρα λόγω κούρσας.
 
 61: 13/7 5/4 
Pip=108-104
1.playedXG Roller++13/7 5/4eq: +0.633
Player:
Opponent:		66.80% (G:6.66% B:0.18%)
33.20% (G:2.22% B:0.03%)
2.xgXG Roller++13/6eq: +0.625 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		66.52% (G:7.41% B:0.18%)
33.48% (G:2.58% B:0.03%)
3.XG Roller++13/7 6/5eq: +0.540 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:		64.62% (G:7.63% B:0.20%)
35.38% (G:3.23% B:0.05%)
4.XG Roller++13/12 13/7eq: +0.518 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:		64.04% (G:7.48% B:0.29%)
35.96% (G:4.43% B:0.07%)
5.4-ply7/6 7/1eq: +0.388 (-0.245)
Player:
Opponent:		61.51% (G:4.82% B:0.10%)
38.49% (G:2.71% B:0.02%)
 
 44: 8/4 7/3 6/2 5/1 
Pip=101-104
1.playedXG Roller++8/4 7/3 6/2 5/1eq: -0.837
Player:
Opponent:		29.43% (G:1.75% B:0.01%)
70.57% (G:10.10% B:0.29%)
2.xgXG Roller++8/4 7/3(2) 5/1eq: -0.839 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		29.75% (G:2.39% B:0.02%)
70.25% (G:11.55% B:0.37%)
3.XG Roller++8/4 7/3 5/1(2)eq: -0.860 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		28.99% (G:1.62% B:0.01%)
71.01% (G:10.13% B:0.32%)
4.XG Roller++8/4 6/2(2) 5/1eq: -0.875 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		28.90% (G:1.56% B:0.01%)
71.10% (G:10.24% B:0.26%)
5.XG Roller++8/4 5/1(3)eq: -0.878 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		28.40% (G:1.32% B:0.01%)
71.60% (G:9.39% B:0.23%)
 
 No double 
Pip=101-88
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.54% (G:10.47% B:0.42%) 70.56% (G:11.08% B:0.43%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.46% (G:1.91% B:0.02%) 29.44% (G:2.11% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.502 +1.027
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.840 (-0.010)
xg Double/Take:+0.850
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.150)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take

Τα 44 έχουν σχεδόν καταστρέψει το στρατόπεδό του, όμως αν και τα καμένα δεν μετράνε όσο φαίνεται στην κούρσα (wastage) αυτή παραμένει υπέρ του, οπότε δεν βίδαρα.
 
 52: 7/5 6/1 
Pip=101-88
1.xgXG Roller++7/2 4/2eq: +0.877
Player:
Opponent:		70.61% (G:12.08% B:0.38%)
29.39% (G:2.39% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++13/6eq: +0.829 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:		69.93% (G:10.46% B:0.28%)
30.07% (G:1.70% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller++13/11 7/2eq: +0.809 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:		68.57% (G:14.58% B:0.89%)
31.43% (G:4.10% B:0.07%)
4.playedXG Roller++7/5 6/1eq: +0.773 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:		68.97% (G:9.72% B:0.30%)
31.03% (G:1.83% B:0.02%)
5.XG Roller++13/11 6/1eq: +0.769 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:		68.96% (G:9.48% B:0.27%)
31.04% (G:1.72% B:0.02%)

"When in doubt, make the prettiest play"
Το σκεπτικό πίσω από το 7/5 6/1 ήταν να μην έχω blot στο στρατόπεδό μου, ώστε να μπορώ να επιτεθώ όταν θα λύσει (και θα λύσει για να διεκδικήσει την ίση κούρσα) και να έχω τρεις builders.
Το σωστό 7/2 4/2 κάνει την καλύτερη πόρτα του 2, ενώ το blot που αφήνει στον άσο δεν είναι τόσο σημαντικό, λόγω του κακού αντίπαλου board, που θα συνεχίσει να καταστρέφεται. Επίσης, το 7/2 4/2 είναι το πιο pure παίξιμο και κρατάει τη μέγιστη δυνατή ευελιξία λόγω του spare στο 6.
 
 33: 7/4 6/3 5/2(2) 
Pip=94-88
1.playedXG Roller++7/4 6/3 5/2(2)eq: -0.988
Player:
Opponent:		26.99% (G:1.49% B:0.01%)
73.01% (G:12.09% B:0.31%)
2.XG Roller++7/1 6/3 4/1eq: -1.000 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		25.85% (G:1.32% B:0.01%)
74.15% (G:13.04% B:0.36%)
3.XG Roller++6/3 5/2(2) 4/1eq: -1.000 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		24.24% (G:0.77% B:0.01%)
75.76% (G:13.58% B:0.33%)
4.XG Roller++7/1 5/2 4/1eq: -1.000 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		23.48% (G:0.95% B:0.01%)
76.52% (G:15.03% B:0.57%)
5.XG Roller++7/1 5/2(2)eq: -1.000 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		23.66% (G:1.02% B:0.01%)
76.34% (G:15.97% B:0.61%)
 
 Double/Take 
Pip=94-76
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 73.00% (G:11.98% B:0.30%) 72.77% (G:12.76% B:0.32%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 27.00% (G:1.35% B:0.01%) 27.23% (G:1.68% B:0.01%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.571 +1.159
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.861 (-0.126)
played Double/Take:+0.988
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.012)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take

Εδώ πια το στρατόπεδό του είναι χάλια και το wastage μεγάλο. Στην επόμενη ζαριά υπάρχουν πολλά makret losers που θα με κάνουν να χάσω την αγορά μου με double / pass, οπότε ο βίδος τώρα είναι υποχρεωτικός.
 
 53: 13/5 
Pip=94-76
1.playedXG Roller++13/5eq: +0.479
Player:
Opponent:		72.31% (G:12.35% B:0.29%)
27.69% (G:1.75% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++7/2 5/2eq: +0.368 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:		66.73% (G:15.06% B:0.38%)
33.27% (G:2.61% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller++7/4 7/2eq: +0.353 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:		66.95% (G:13.92% B:0.34%)
33.05% (G:3.10% B:0.03%)
4.XG Roller++13/8 5/2eq: +0.342 (-0.137)
Player:
Opponent:		66.76% (G:13.24% B:0.33%)
33.24% (G:3.82% B:0.04%)
5.4-ply13/8 4/1eq: +0.253 (-0.227)
Player:
Opponent:		64.75% (G:8.54% B:0.22%)
35.25% (G:2.44% B:0.02%)
 
 54: 22/13 
Pip=86-76
1.played3-ply22/13eq: -0.504
Player:
Opponent:		26.67% (G:2.06% B:0.02%)
73.33% (G:13.43% B:0.34%)
 
 41: 13/9 13/12*  
Pip=86-67
1.xgXG Roller++13/12* 7/3* eq: +0.979
Player:
Opponent:		86.49% (G:30.47% B:0.86%)
13.51% (G:4.10% B:0.12%)
2.XG Roller++7/3* 4/3eq: +0.851 (-0.128)
Player:
Opponent:		85.46% (G:18.01% B:0.46%)
14.54% (G:0.63% B:0.01%)
3.playedXG Roller++13/9 13/12* eq: +0.834 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		83.30% (G:21.60% B:0.57%)
16.70% (G:1.23% B:0.01%)
4.XG Roller++13/12* 5/1eq: +0.829 (-0.151)
Player:
Opponent:		84.14% (G:19.15% B:0.45%)
15.86% (G:0.99% B:0.01%)
5.4-ply13/12* 12/8eq: +0.776 (-0.203)
Player:
Opponent:		81.48% (G:20.78% B:0.56%)
18.52% (G:1.80% B:0.02%)

Πρέπει να παραδεχτώ ότι δεν εξέτασα καθόλου το διπλό χτύπημα. Είδα μόνο την πόρτα και την απέρριψα επειδή ήθελα οπωσδήποτε το έξω πούλι λόγω κούρσας.
Ο λόγος που το έχασα αυτό είναι ο φόβος μου απέναντι στο σεβαστό του board (πάντα πρέπει να σέβεσαι ένα 4-πορτο board), όμως αυτό που αποφασίζει στη θέση αυτή είναι η μεγάλη διαφορά των gammons για μένα (30.5% έναντι 21.6%). Αυτό βέβαια είναι προφανές. Εκείνο που δεν ήξερα είναι ότι και οι συνολικές νίκες είναι περισσότερες (κατά 3.2%)με το διπλό χτύπημα.
 
 54: Cannot Move 
Pip=81-79
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -1.157
Player:
Opponent:		7.68% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)
92.32% (G:31.43% B:0.93%)
 
 43: 12/8 9/6 
Pip=81-79
1.xgXG Roller++12/9 7/3* eq: +1.050
Player:
Opponent:		88.63% (G:30.21% B:0.87%)
11.37% (G:1.28% B:0.01%)
2.XG Roller++9/6 7/3* eq: +1.033 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		87.88% (G:31.02% B:0.94%)
12.12% (G:2.34% B:0.04%)
3.XG Roller++7/4 7/3* eq: +0.957 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:		86.02% (G:28.06% B:0.81%)
13.98% (G:2.45% B:0.04%)
4.XG Roller++9/6 5/1eq: +0.906 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		87.83% (G:17.71% B:0.42%)
12.17% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++7/3* 4/1eq: +0.902 (-0.148)
Player:
Opponent:		85.04% (G:26.48% B:0.71%)
14.96% (G:4.21% B:0.11%)
6.playedXG Roller++12/8 9/6eq: +0.872 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:		85.23% (G:20.34% B:0.56%)
14.77% (G:0.45% B:0.00%)

Αυτό είναι εγκληματικό. Δεν επιτρέπεται να αφήνεις τον αντίπαλο να δέσει σε τέτοια θέση, πόσω μάλλον όταν το board του επιτρέπει εύκολη διαφυγή.
 
 32: Bar/22 3/1 
Pip=74-79
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/22 3/1eq: -0.645
Player:
Opponent:		16.80% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
83.20% (G:3.27% B:0.03%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 4/2eq: -0.707 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		15.32% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
84.68% (G:5.88% B:0.09%)
3.3-plyBar/23 4/1eq: -1.318 (-0.673)
Player:
Opponent:		5.37% (G:0.35% B:0.01%)
94.63% (G:40.85% B:1.59%)
 
 53: 8/5 6/1 
Pip=74-74
1.played4-ply8/5 6/1eq: +0.600
Player:
Opponent:		81.72% (G:1.96% B:0.01%)
18.28% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply8/5 7/2eq: +0.404 (-0.196)
Player:
Opponent:		72.72% (G:3.89% B:0.03%)
27.28% (G:0.31% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply7/4 7/2eq: +0.372 (-0.229)
Player:
Opponent:		71.22% (G:4.19% B:0.03%)
28.78% (G:0.41% B:0.01%)
4.4-ply6/1 5/2eq: +0.355 (-0.245)
Player:
Opponent:		70.82% (G:4.02% B:0.03%)
29.18% (G:0.78% B:0.01%)
5.3-ply6/1 4/1eq: +0.254 (-0.347)
Player:
Opponent:		67.27% (G:2.67% B:0.03%)
32.73% (G:0.56% B:0.00%)
 
 52: 22/15 
Pip=66-74
1.playedXG Roller++22/15eq: -0.617
Player:
Opponent:		17.50% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
82.50% (G:2.03% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++22/17 3/1eq: -0.670 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:		15.47% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
84.53% (G:2.63% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller++22/17 4/2eq: -0.726 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:		14.36% (G:0.19% B:0.00%)
85.64% (G:5.78% B:0.09%)
 
 62: 7/5 7/1 
Pip=66-67
1.played4-ply7/5 7/1eq: +0.513
Player:
Opponent:		78.57% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
21.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply7/1 5/3* eq: +0.255 (-0.258)
Player:
Opponent:		67.49% (G:3.51% B:0.03%)
32.51% (G:1.36% B:0.01%)
3.3-ply7/1 4/2eq: +0.136 (-0.378)
Player:
Opponent:		63.02% (G:0.53% B:0.00%)
36.98% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
4.2-ply7/1 6/4eq: -0.237 (-0.750)
Player:
Opponent:		46.84% (G:0.46% B:0.00%)
53.16% (G:1.56% B:0.01%)

Η ευκαιρία για gammon έχει πετάξει. Μετά το 62 είμαι μπροστά στην κούρσα 9 pips (και στην ουσία 14 λόγω των καμένων του) οπότε είναι σαφές ότι δεν πρέπει να χτυπήσω.
 
 44: 22/10 15/11 
Pip=58-67
1.playedXG Roller++22/10 15/11eq: -0.040
Player:
Opponent:		41.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
58.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++22/6eq: -0.052 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		40.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++22/14 15/7eq: -0.056 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		40.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++22/18 15/3eq: -0.142 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:		36.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
63.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 11: 1/Off(4) 
Pip=58-51
1.playedXG Roller++1/Off(4)eq: +0.086
Player:
Opponent:		60.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++5/4 1/Off(3)eq: +0.057 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		59.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++4/3 1/Off(3)eq: +0.042 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:		58.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++5/3 1/Off(2)eq: -0.005 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:		56.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++6/5 1/Off(3)eq: -0.018 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:		56.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 66: 11/Off 10/Off 
Pip=54-51
1.played3-ply11/Off 10/Offeq: +0.742
Player:
Opponent:		72.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
27.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 42: 5/3 4/Off 
Pip=54-30
1.played4-ply5/3 4/Offeq: -0.966
Player:
Opponent:		21.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
78.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply6/Offeq: -1.000 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		19.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply4/2 4/Offeq: -1.000 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		19.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.4-ply5/3 5/1eq: -1.000 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		19.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.4-ply6/2 5/3eq: -1.000 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		19.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 Double/Pass 
Pip=48-30
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 78.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 77.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 21.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 22.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.563 +1.131
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.862 (-0.138)±0.002 (+0.860..+0.865)
xg Redouble/Take:+1.002 (+0.002)±0.003 (+0.998..+1.005)
played Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 83.6%
Duration: 8.5 seconds

Υπολόγισα ότι είχα γύρω στο 17%, οπότε μου φάνηκε καθαρό πάσο. Όμως ακόμα κι αν ήξερα την ακριβή εκτίμηση (οριακό take) πάλι πάσο θα πήγαινα, λόγω διαφοράς δυναμικότητας και ύψους κύβου.
 
 Wins 2pts. 

Game Summary:

mman  Category Iskandar 
Advanced (-0.0195) Total Error Expert (-0.0140)
Intermediate (-0.0276) Checker Play Advanced (-0.0159)
World Champ. (-0.0013) Cube Play World Champ. (+0.0000)
9.76 Performance Rating 7.01
4(3) Move Errors 2(1)
-0.497(-3.71%) Equity lost (cost) -0.238(-1.06%)
     
0 Double Errors 0
-0.010(-0.05%) Equity lost (cost) +0.000
     
0 Take Errors 0
+0.000 Equity lost (cost) +0.000
     
4(3) Total Error 2(1)
-0.507(-3.76%) Equity lost (cost) -0.238(-1.06%)
     
3 Jokers 2
-0.375(-7.12%) Luck +0.375(+7.12%)

 Game 3

13 point match, Score is mman: 0, Iskandar: 3

 
 32: 24/21 13/11 
Pip=167-167
1.playedBook124/21 13/11eq: +0.067
Player:
Opponent:		50.23% (G:13.56% B:0.60%)
49.77% (G:12.88% B:0.57%)
2.Book124/22 13/10eq: +0.055 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		49.82% (G:13.32% B:0.53%)
50.18% (G:12.86% B:0.48%)
3.Book113/11 13/10eq: +0.054 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		49.74% (G:14.60% B:0.63%)
50.26% (G:13.81% B:0.74%)
4.XG Roller++13/11 8/5eq: +0.010 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:		48.94% (G:13.80% B:0.59%)
51.06% (G:14.34% B:0.84%)
5.Book124/22 24/21eq: +0.007 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:		49.21% (G:11.78% B:0.51%)
50.79% (G:12.99% B:0.45%)
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 21-May-11 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
 
 63: 13/4*  
Pip=162-167
1.playedXG Roller++13/4* eq: -0.169
Player:
Opponent:		47.09% (G:13.04% B:0.56%)
52.91% (G:14.62% B:0.80%)
2.XG Roller++24/15eq: -0.225 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:		46.45% (G:10.51% B:0.43%)
53.55% (G:15.45% B:0.57%)
3.XG Roller++24/21 24/18eq: -0.264 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:		45.59% (G:9.90% B:0.41%)
54.41% (G:15.76% B:0.54%)
4.XG Roller++24/18 13/10eq: -0.284 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:		45.08% (G:10.34% B:0.43%)
54.92% (G:16.01% B:0.78%)
5.XG Roller++24/21 13/7eq: -0.292 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent:		44.21% (G:11.08% B:0.45%)
55.79% (G:15.43% B:0.77%)
 
 33: Bar/22 24/21* 6/3(2) 
Pip=166-158
1.xgXG Roller++Bar/22 24/21* 8/5(2)eq: +0.539
Player:
Opponent:		59.88% (G:20.46% B:1.41%)
40.12% (G:9.43% B:0.41%)
2.playedXG Roller++Bar/22 24/21* 6/3(2)eq: +0.517 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		59.83% (G:19.28% B:1.32%)
40.17% (G:9.22% B:0.34%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/22 24/21* 13/10(2)eq: +0.413 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:		57.55% (G:18.36% B:1.24%)
42.45% (G:10.10% B:0.40%)
4.4-plyBar/22 24/21* 21/15eq: +0.331 (-0.208)
Player:
Opponent:		56.93% (G:15.84% B:0.95%)
43.07% (G:10.92% B:0.43%)
5.4-plyBar/22 24/21* 13/10 11/8eq: +0.309 (-0.230)
Player:
Opponent:		55.58% (G:17.03% B:1.05%)
44.42% (G:10.71% B:0.42%)

Δεν θέλησα να κάνω την 5 επειδή αφήνει φορωμένη την 6 και blot στο 8. Δεν μου κάνει εντύπωση, πάντως, που είναι λίγο καλύτερη.
 
 51: Bar/20 24/23 
Pip=154-179
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/20 24/23eq: -0.583
Player:
Opponent:		38.62% (G:8.66% B:0.32%)
61.38% (G:20.69% B:1.24%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/20 6/5eq: -0.661 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:		38.53% (G:8.36% B:0.33%)
61.47% (G:24.07% B:2.58%)
3.4-plyBar/24 8/3* eq: -0.743 (-0.160)
Player:
Opponent:		36.24% (G:7.92% B:0.30%)
63.76% (G:23.06% B:2.21%)
4.4-plyBar/24 13/8eq: -0.762 (-0.179)
Player:
Opponent:		35.31% (G:7.95% B:0.28%)
64.69% (G:22.08% B:1.97%)
5.4-plyBar/20 8/7eq: -0.787 (-0.204)
Player:
Opponent:		36.08% (G:7.51% B:0.28%)
63.92% (G:24.17% B:2.51%)
 
 No double 
Pip=154-173
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 61.43% (G:20.70% B:1.20%) 61.51% (G:20.82% B:1.21%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 38.57% (G:8.70% B:0.32%) 38.49% (G:8.72% B:0.32%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.355 +0.752
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.587
     Double/Take:+0.555 (-0.032)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.413)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.8%
 
 43: 13/9 8/5*  
Pip=154-173
1.xgXG Roller++8/5* 5/1* eq: +0.483
Player:
Opponent:		58.24% (G:21.35% B:0.93%)
41.76% (G:10.01% B:0.41%)
2.XG Roller++8/5* 6/2* eq: +0.412 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:		56.80% (G:20.40% B:1.38%)
43.20% (G:11.43% B:0.58%)
3.playedXG Roller++13/9 8/5* eq: +0.392 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:		56.55% (G:19.70% B:1.30%)
43.45% (G:11.76% B:0.64%)
4.XG Roller++22/18 21/18eq: +0.350 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:		58.00% (G:13.36% B:0.48%)
42.00% (G:9.09% B:0.28%)
5.4-ply22/18 8/5* eq: +0.296 (-0.188)
Player:
Opponent:		55.41% (G:16.62% B:1.00%)
44.59% (G:11.86% B:0.52%)

Και πάλι δεν το είδα. Ο νους μου ήταν στην πόρτα 5, αλλά οτιδήποτε άλλο εκτός από το διπλό χτύπημα αφήνει πολύ ελεύθερο τον αντίπαλο.
 
 54: Bar/20* 20/16*  
Pip=147-178
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/20* 20/16* eq: +0.100
Player:
Opponent:		53.27% (G:16.22% B:0.83%)
46.73% (G:12.61% B:0.61%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/20* 24/20eq: +0.016 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:		50.93% (G:12.26% B:0.52%)
49.07% (G:10.43% B:0.40%)
3.4-plyBar/20* 8/4* eq: -0.091 (-0.191)
Player:
Opponent:		49.26% (G:15.17% B:1.00%)
50.74% (G:15.87% B:1.13%)
4.3-plyBar/20* 13/9eq: -0.330 (-0.430)
Player:
Opponent:		44.24% (G:12.00% B:0.62%)
55.76% (G:18.60% B:1.41%)
5.3-plyBar/20* 6/2eq: -0.403 (-0.503)
Player:
Opponent:		43.23% (G:11.55% B:0.56%)
56.77% (G:20.54% B:1.66%)

Ο Μίμης σκέφτηκε για λίγο την πόρτα το 20, αλλά το διπλό χτύπημα είναι πολύ ισχυρό.
 
 41: Bar/24 Bar/21 
Pip=183-169
1.played3-plyBar/24 Bar/21eq: -0.044
Player:
Opponent:		47.68% (G:12.93% B:0.63%)
52.32% (G:14.86% B:0.54%)
 
 43: 24/20 23/20 
Pip=178-169
1.playedXG Roller++24/20 23/20eq: +0.040
Player:
Opponent:		51.76% (G:11.95% B:0.38%)
48.24% (G:10.13% B:0.36%)
2.XG Roller++23/16eq: +0.007 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		52.51% (G:12.23% B:0.41%)
47.49% (G:14.01% B:0.44%)
3.4-ply24/20 16/13eq: -0.169 (-0.209)
Player:
Opponent:		47.65% (G:11.60% B:0.36%)
52.35% (G:15.46% B:0.59%)
4.4-ply16/13 6/2eq: -0.228 (-0.267)
Player:
Opponent:		46.38% (G:11.55% B:0.37%)
53.62% (G:16.80% B:0.85%)
5.4-ply24/20 6/3* eq: -0.271 (-0.310)
Player:
Opponent:		46.31% (G:11.77% B:0.42%)
53.69% (G:18.60% B:1.26%)

Η χρυσή πόρτα του 20 υπερτερεί της ασφάλειας στο outfield.
 
 62: 22/16 11/9*  
Pip=178-162
1.playedXG Roller++22/16 11/9* eq: +0.023
Player:
Opponent:		49.85% (G:10.51% B:0.38%)
50.15% (G:11.41% B:0.41%)
2.XG Roller++24/18 11/9* eq: -0.029 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:		48.55% (G:10.63% B:0.40%)
51.45% (G:12.66% B:0.44%)
3.XG Roller++21/15 11/9* eq: -0.044 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:		48.47% (G:10.53% B:0.41%)
51.53% (G:13.29% B:0.64%)
4.XG Roller++11/9* 9/3eq: -0.070 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:		47.15% (G:10.46% B:0.33%)
52.85% (G:12.16% B:0.41%)
5.XG Roller++13/7 11/9* eq: -0.090 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:		46.90% (G:11.01% B:0.43%)
53.10% (G:14.08% B:0.59%)
 
 43: Bar/18 
Pip=170-171
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/18eq: -0.067
Player:
Opponent:		49.06% (G:10.51% B:0.34%)
50.94% (G:10.59% B:0.38%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/21 6/3eq: -0.134 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:		47.66% (G:10.62% B:0.33%)
52.34% (G:12.21% B:0.44%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/21 8/5eq: -0.200 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:		46.32% (G:10.83% B:0.39%)
53.68% (G:13.85% B:0.51%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/21 13/10eq: -0.210 (-0.143)
Player:
Opponent:		45.70% (G:10.31% B:0.35%)
54.30% (G:12.93% B:0.48%)
 
 63: 16/7*  
Pip=170-164
1.playedXG Roller++16/7* eq: +0.070
Player:
Opponent:		50.63% (G:11.44% B:0.44%)
49.37% (G:10.86% B:0.39%)
2.XG Roller++16/10 13/10eq: +0.021 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		49.59% (G:10.36% B:0.37%)
50.41% (G:10.79% B:0.36%)
3.XG Roller++13/7* 9/6eq: -0.005 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:		48.80% (G:11.28% B:0.39%)
51.20% (G:12.12% B:0.46%)
4.XG Roller++13/7* 7/4eq: -0.006 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:		49.09% (G:11.06% B:0.40%)
50.91% (G:12.73% B:0.51%)
5.XG Roller++24/21 13/7* eq: -0.019 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:		48.70% (G:10.30% B:0.38%)
51.30% (G:11.86% B:0.42%)

Πρέπει να χτυπήσω, και δεν υπάρχει πιο ασφαλές τριάρι από το 16/13.
 
 51: Bar/24 13/8 
Pip=161-171
1.xgXG Roller++Bar/20 6/5eq: -0.162
Player:
Opponent:		47.32% (G:9.39% B:0.31%)
52.68% (G:12.41% B:0.43%)
2.playedXG Roller++Bar/24 13/8eq: -0.167 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		46.51% (G:9.24% B:0.27%)
53.49% (G:10.91% B:0.38%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/24 6/1* eq: -0.211 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:		45.67% (G:9.85% B:0.26%)
54.33% (G:12.57% B:0.49%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/20 8/7eq: -0.267 (-0.105)
Player:
Opponent:		44.44% (G:9.21% B:0.31%)
55.56% (G:13.16% B:0.47%)
5.XG Roller++Bar/24 8/3eq: -0.270 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:		44.58% (G:9.56% B:0.29%)
55.42% (G:14.04% B:0.54%)
 
 62: 13/7 9/7 
Pip=161-165
1.playedXG Roller++13/7 9/7eq: +0.202
Player:
Opponent:		54.42% (G:10.51% B:0.38%)
45.58% (G:8.65% B:0.26%)
2.XG Roller++24/18 9/7eq: +0.179 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		54.30% (G:9.21% B:0.34%)
45.70% (G:8.42% B:0.24%)
3.XG Roller++24/22 13/7eq: +0.156 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:		53.27% (G:10.39% B:0.41%)
46.73% (G:9.27% B:0.28%)
4.XG Roller++21/15 9/7eq: +0.132 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:		53.35% (G:10.67% B:0.44%)
46.65% (G:11.86% B:0.44%)
5.XG Roller++13/7 6/4eq: +0.064 (-0.137)
Player:
Opponent:		50.63% (G:12.33% B:0.54%)
49.37% (G:12.73% B:0.49%)
 
 43: 8/1*  
Pip=153-165
1.xgXG Roller++24/20 6/3eq: -0.244
Player:
Opponent:		44.56% (G:8.01% B:0.24%)
55.44% (G:11.01% B:0.36%)
2.XG Roller++24/20 8/5eq: -0.325 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:		42.72% (G:8.28% B:0.25%)
57.28% (G:12.69% B:0.42%)
3.XG Roller++24/20 13/10eq: -0.332 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:		42.49% (G:7.99% B:0.26%)
57.51% (G:12.16% B:0.40%)
4.XG Roller++13/6eq: -0.343 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:		41.48% (G:7.79% B:0.20%)
58.52% (G:10.74% B:0.41%)
5.playedXG Roller++8/1* eq: -0.356 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:		41.71% (G:8.71% B:0.22%)
58.29% (G:12.77% B:0.54%)

Το σωστό παίξιμο κερδίζει κάτι αν πετύχει (μάλλον κάνει την πόρτα του 3). Επίσης, εφόσον η κούρσα είναι κοντά και εγώ έχω επίσης τρία πούλια πίσω, δεν πειράζει καθόλου να ανέβει το πούλι στο 20.
Αντίθετα, το αντιθεματικό 8/1 χωρίς να αποφεύγει τον κίνδυνο του χτυπήματος, θάβει το πούλι στην περίπτωση που γλιτώσει και δεν έχει σχέδιο να κάνει καμία χρήσιμη πόρτα.
 
 No double 
Pip=154-158
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 58.15% (G:12.75% B:0.54%) 58.26% (G:12.63% B:0.54%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 41.85% (G:8.80% B:0.23%) 41.74% (G:8.75% B:0.23%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.202 +0.422
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.349
     Double/Take:+0.207 (-0.143)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.651)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.2%
 
 21: Bar/24* 24/22 
Pip=154-158
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/24* 24/22eq: +0.472
Player:
Opponent:		59.40% (G:17.47% B:0.77%)
40.60% (G:8.29% B:0.27%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/24* 6/4eq: +0.334 (-0.138)
Player:
Opponent:		56.21% (G:15.97% B:0.71%)
43.79% (G:9.55% B:0.32%)
3.4-plyBar/24* 13/11eq: +0.281 (-0.191)
Player:
Opponent:		55.10% (G:15.85% B:0.75%)
44.90% (G:9.61% B:0.29%)
4.4-plyBar/24* 8/6eq: +0.280 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:		54.89% (G:16.09% B:0.66%)
45.11% (G:9.44% B:0.28%)
5.4-plyBar/22eq: +0.230 (-0.242)
Player:
Opponent:		55.68% (G:10.47% B:0.43%)
44.32% (G:8.78% B:0.19%)
 
 63: Cannot Move 
Pip=151-182
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -0.561
Player:
Opponent:		38.29% (G:7.39% B:0.19%)
61.71% (G:18.80% B:0.81%)
 
 Double/Take 
Pip=151-182
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 61.75% (G:19.42% B:0.91%) 61.94% (G:19.52% B:0.92%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 38.25% (G:8.17% B:0.34%) 38.06% (G:8.12% B:0.43%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.351 +0.744
Cubeful Equities
xg No double:+0.575±0.018 (+0.557..+0.593)
played Double/Take:+0.519 (-0.057)±0.020 (+0.498..+0.539)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.425)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 33 minutes 17 seconds

Έχω πολλά πλεονεκτήματα (επιπλεόν πόρτα στο 3, καλύτερο αποκλεισμό με το bar, χρήσιμους builders, και μεγάλο προβάδισμα στην κούρσα) αλλά τα τρία πούλια μου πίσω αντιπροσωπεύουν πολλή δουλειά που πρέπει να γίνει μέχρι τη νίκη, ενώ ο αντίπαλος θα έχει ευκαιρίες να φτιάξει τη δεύτερη anchor.


 
 53: 21/13 
Pip=151-182
1.playedXG Roller++21/13eq: +0.248
Player:
Opponent:		60.72% (G:19.34% B:0.98%)
39.28% (G:8.13% B:0.27%)
2.XG Roller++21/18 21/16eq: +0.224 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:		60.17% (G:18.88% B:0.91%)
39.83% (G:9.09% B:0.34%)
3.XG Roller++13/10 13/8eq: +0.170 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:		57.76% (G:18.41% B:0.85%)
42.24% (G:8.28% B:0.25%)
4.XG Roller++21/16 6/3eq: +0.152 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:		57.36% (G:19.07% B:0.93%)
42.64% (G:10.09% B:0.37%)
5.XG Roller++21/18 6/1* eq: +0.148 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:		57.81% (G:17.53% B:0.48%)
42.19% (G:9.81% B:0.36%)

Ευκαιρία για λύσιμο της anchor όσο το στρατόπεδό του είναι αδύναμο και είναι χτυπημένος.
 
 31: Bar/24 6/3*  
Pip=143-182
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/24 6/3* eq: -0.255
Player:
Opponent:		39.49% (G:8.27% B:0.29%)
60.51% (G:20.58% B:1.47%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/21eq: -0.306 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:		36.93% (G:7.34% B:0.24%)
63.07% (G:19.32% B:0.77%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/24 8/5eq: -0.312 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:		38.04% (G:7.41% B:0.26%)
61.96% (G:22.12% B:1.87%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/24 13/10eq: -0.333 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:		37.32% (G:7.11% B:0.26%)
62.68% (G:22.26% B:1.79%)
 
 64: Bar/21 13/7 
Pip=146-178
1.xgXG Roller++Bar/15eq: +0.239
Player:
Opponent:		60.59% (G:19.17% B:1.46%)
39.41% (G:9.19% B:0.32%)
2.playedXG Roller++Bar/21 13/7eq: +0.236 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		60.53% (G:18.78% B:1.04%)
39.47% (G:8.52% B:0.28%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/21 8/2eq: +0.110 (-0.129)
Player:
Opponent:		55.99% (G:17.60% B:0.99%)
44.01% (G:10.02% B:0.34%)
 
 62: 13/5 
Pip=136-178
1.playedXG Roller++13/5eq: -0.299
Player:
Opponent:		38.10% (G:7.91% B:0.28%)
61.90% (G:21.24% B:1.77%)
2.XG Roller++13/7 8/6eq: -0.359 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:		36.01% (G:7.14% B:0.25%)
63.99% (G:21.66% B:1.80%)
3.XG Roller++13/11 8/2eq: -0.390 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:		35.08% (G:7.12% B:0.22%)
64.92% (G:22.23% B:1.85%)
4.XG Roller++13/11 13/7eq: -0.405 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:		36.34% (G:6.47% B:0.25%)
63.66% (G:25.82% B:2.64%)
5.XG Roller++13/7 3/1eq: -0.435 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:		33.12% (G:6.52% B:0.16%)
66.88% (G:21.99% B:1.73%)
 
 64: 21/11 
Pip=136-170
1.playedXG Roller++21/11eq: +0.188
Player:
Opponent:		58.04% (G:20.50% B:1.83%)
41.96% (G:10.35% B:0.37%)
2.XG Roller++8/2 6/2eq: +0.163 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		57.01% (G:20.21% B:1.47%)
42.99% (G:9.92% B:0.36%)
3.XG Roller++13/9 13/7eq: +0.141 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		56.67% (G:18.47% B:1.15%)
43.33% (G:9.00% B:0.30%)
4.XG Roller++21/15 7/3eq: +0.130 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:		56.00% (G:20.30% B:1.91%)
44.00% (G:11.29% B:0.43%)
5.XG Roller++13/3eq: +0.119 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:		55.86% (G:18.53% B:1.27%)
44.14% (G:9.47% B:0.32%)

Το μεγάλο προβάδισμα στην κούρσα και το αδύναμο αντίπαλο στρατόπεδο υποδεικνύουν (όπως και στην προηγούμενη κίνηση) το τρέξιμο με λύσιμο της anchor.
 
 21: 6/4* 5/4 
Pip=126-170
1.xgXG Roller++6/5 6/4* eq: -0.138
Player:
Opponent:		44.54% (G:9.94% B:0.38%)
55.46% (G:21.82% B:2.03%)
2.playedXG Roller++6/4* 5/4eq: -0.150 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		42.92% (G:10.19% B:0.36%)
57.08% (G:19.55% B:1.61%)
3.XG Roller++6/4* 4/3eq: -0.194 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:		41.45% (G:9.46% B:0.33%)
58.55% (G:19.88% B:1.64%)
4.XG Roller++8/5eq: -0.229 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:		39.43% (G:8.85% B:0.28%)
60.57% (G:18.14% B:1.55%)
5.XG Roller++13/11 6/5eq: -0.282 (-0.144)
Player:
Opponent:		38.52% (G:7.51% B:0.26%)
61.48% (G:20.43% B:1.79%)
 
 64: Cannot Move 
Pip=130-167
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -0.078
Player:
Opponent:		50.81% (G:14.88% B:1.08%)
49.19% (G:15.40% B:0.52%)
 
 43: 24/20 6/3 
Pip=130-167
1.playedXG Roller++24/20 6/3eq: +0.079
Player:
Opponent:		48.21% (G:13.55% B:0.43%)
51.79% (G:12.28% B:0.37%)
2.XG Roller++13/9 6/3eq: +0.001 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:		46.47% (G:13.55% B:0.50%)
53.53% (G:15.47% B:1.12%)
3.XG Roller++8/4 6/3eq: -0.059 (-0.138)
Player:
Opponent:		43.87% (G:12.96% B:0.40%)
56.13% (G:14.97% B:0.86%)
4.4-ply20/16 6/3eq: -0.112 (-0.190)
Player:
Opponent:		44.09% (G:12.54% B:0.44%)
55.91% (G:18.86% B:1.69%)
5.4-ply24/21 24/20eq: -0.130 (-0.209)
Player:
Opponent:		42.79% (G:9.92% B:0.31%)
57.21% (G:17.38% B:0.48%)
 
 52: Bar/23 11/6 
Pip=130-160
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/23 11/6eq: +0.019
Player:
Opponent:		54.42% (G:13.32% B:0.36%)
45.58% (G:10.43% B:0.33%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/20 13/11eq: -0.034 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:		52.82% (G:13.94% B:0.59%)
47.18% (G:12.88% B:0.41%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/20 11/9eq: -0.084 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:		51.29% (G:13.50% B:0.55%)
48.71% (G:14.29% B:0.48%)
4.4-plyBar/18eq: -0.126 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		50.64% (G:11.47% B:0.42%)
49.36% (G:15.85% B:0.48%)
5.4-plyBar/23 6/1* eq: -0.221 (-0.240)
Player:
Opponent:		46.41% (G:11.98% B:0.31%)
53.59% (G:15.98% B:0.64%)
 
 42: 24/20 8/6 
Pip=123-160
1.xgXG Roller++20/16 8/6eq: -0.050
Player:
Opponent:		44.95% (G:10.78% B:0.34%)
55.05% (G:15.25% B:0.45%)
2.XG Roller++20/14eq: -0.059 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		44.52% (G:10.32% B:0.34%)
55.48% (G:14.98% B:0.43%)
3.playedXG Roller++24/20 8/6eq: -0.102 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:		41.30% (G:8.24% B:0.22%)
58.70% (G:10.54% B:0.23%)
4.XG Roller++8/2* eq: -0.178 (-0.129)
Player:
Opponent:		41.12% (G:10.18% B:0.26%)
58.88% (G:18.36% B:0.69%)
5.XG Roller++13/11 13/9eq: -0.188 (-0.138)
Player:
Opponent:		40.36% (G:9.10% B:0.30%)
59.64% (G:17.07% B:0.50%)

To 24/20 συσσωρεύει πούλια στο 20 και απεμπολεί τον έλεγχο του αντίπαλου στρατόπεδου. Το σωστό είναι να παίξει στο outfield. Εξάλλου στην κούρσα είναι τόσο πίσω που πιθανό χτύπημα δεν στοιχίζει πολύ.
Στο σωστό συναινούν η γυμνή αντίπαλη midpoint και η υπεροπλία σε εσωτερικές πόρτες.
 
 42: 7/3 6/4 
Pip=123-154
1.playedXG Roller++7/3 6/4eq: -0.011
Player:
Opponent:		53.49% (G:11.87% B:0.28%)
46.51% (G:9.34% B:0.31%)
2.XG Roller++6/4 6/2eq: -0.043 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		52.83% (G:11.17% B:0.26%)
47.17% (G:10.43% B:0.32%)
3.XG Roller++7/1eq: -0.043 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		52.73% (G:11.32% B:0.19%)
47.27% (G:10.34% B:0.33%)
4.XG Roller++8/6 8/4eq: -0.086 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:		50.45% (G:11.76% B:0.25%)
49.55% (G:9.76% B:0.31%)
5.XG Roller++8/4 6/4eq: -0.126 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:		49.82% (G:11.23% B:0.26%)
50.18% (G:12.17% B:0.36%)
 
 62: 8/6 8/2*  
Pip=117-154
1.xgXG Roller++20/14 13/11eq: -0.064
Player:
Opponent:		44.93% (G:10.61% B:0.44%)
55.07% (G:16.48% B:0.52%)
2.XG Roller++20/14 6/4eq: -0.070 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		43.12% (G:8.24% B:0.22%)
56.88% (G:11.57% B:0.25%)
3.XG Roller++13/11 13/7eq: -0.220 (-0.156)
Player:
Opponent:		39.35% (G:8.03% B:0.24%)
60.65% (G:17.22% B:0.37%)
4.playedXG Roller++8/6 8/2* eq: -0.250 (-0.186)
Player:
Opponent:		36.70% (G:8.55% B:0.20%)
63.30% (G:14.33% B:0.37%)
5.4-ply20/14 8/6eq: -0.249 (-0.185)
Player:
Opponent:		38.12% (G:8.02% B:0.22%)
61.88% (G:16.74% B:0.43%)

Ομολογώ ότι δεν είχα εξετάσει το 20/14 13/11. Θα έπαιζα 20/14 6/4.
Οι λόγοι που το 8/6 8/2* είναι τόσο λάθος, είναι η αξία της πόρτας 8 που χαλάει σε συνδυασμό με τα τέσσερα πούλια στο 20 τα οποία φωνάζουν ότι πρέπει να κινηθούν.
 
 32: Bar/23* 7/4 
Pip=119-146
1.played3-plyBar/23* 7/4eq: +0.599
Player:
Opponent:		71.91% (G:25.51% B:0.52%)
28.09% (G:4.82% B:0.14%)
2.3-plyBar/23* 23/20eq: +0.255 (-0.343)
Player:
Opponent:		61.47% (G:19.26% B:0.49%)
38.53% (G:9.49% B:0.30%)
3.3-plyBar/23* 4/1eq: +0.221 (-0.378)
Player:
Opponent:		59.81% (G:20.12% B:0.43%)
40.19% (G:10.05% B:0.30%)
4.3-plyBar/23* 6/3eq: +0.100 (-0.498)
Player:
Opponent:		56.16% (G:18.11% B:0.44%)
43.84% (G:12.08% B:0.39%)
5.2-plyBar/23* 13/10eq: -0.116 (-0.714)
Player:
Opponent:		49.07% (G:16.59% B:0.51%)
50.93% (G:16.85% B:1.09%)
 
 62: Bar/23 20/14 
Pip=114-169
1.played4-plyBar/23 20/14eq: -0.585
Player:
Opponent:		30.73% (G:6.18% B:0.25%)
69.27% (G:30.71% B:0.79%)
2.4-plyBar/23 13/7eq: -0.885 (-0.299)
Player:
Opponent:		24.73% (G:4.47% B:0.16%)
75.27% (G:42.84% B:2.31%)

Χαρακτηριστικός επιπλεόν λόγος για το ότι έπρεπε πριν να βγει στο outfield: Αναγκάζεται να το κάνει τώρα και μάλιστα με πολύ χειρότερες συνθήκες (επιπλεόν πούλι πίσω και απώλεια της πόρτας 8).
 
 64: 23/13 
Pip=114-161
1.playedXG Roller++23/13eq: +0.718
Player:
Opponent:		79.59% (G:18.63% B:0.23%)
20.41% (G:2.29% B:0.07%)
2.XG Roller++8/2* 6/2eq: +0.630 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:		69.20% (G:34.69% B:0.63%)
30.80% (G:5.69% B:0.21%)
3.3-ply23/17 6/2* eq: +0.420 (-0.297)
Player:
Opponent:		65.08% (G:26.35% B:0.72%)
34.92% (G:9.11% B:0.33%)
4.3-ply8/4 8/2* eq: +0.361 (-0.356)
Player:
Opponent:		62.19% (G:27.14% B:0.67%)
37.81% (G:9.03% B:0.32%)
5.3-ply13/9 13/7eq: +0.252 (-0.465)
Player:
Opponent:		60.60% (G:19.79% B:0.52%)
39.40% (G:7.86% B:0.24%)
 
 64: 20/14 6/2 
Pip=104-161
1.XG Roller++20/10eq: -0.754
Player:
Opponent:		22.65% (G:3.24% B:0.11%)
77.35% (G:27.15% B:0.61%)
2.XG Roller++20/14 13/9eq: -0.759 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		21.36% (G:2.62% B:0.08%)
78.64% (G:24.46% B:0.51%)
3.playedXG Roller++20/14 6/2eq: -0.768 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		19.52% (G:2.19% B:0.05%)
80.48% (G:21.16% B:0.35%)
4.XG Roller++20/16 14/8eq: -0.778 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:		21.64% (G:2.68% B:0.08%)
78.36% (G:26.80% B:0.59%)
5.XG Roller++14/4eq: -0.779 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		18.51% (G:1.99% B:0.05%)
81.49% (G:20.05% B:0.25%)
 
 52: 13/6 
Pip=104-151
1.playedXG Roller++13/6eq: +0.763
Player:
Opponent:		80.79% (G:20.03% B:0.38%)
19.21% (G:2.16% B:0.07%)
2.XG Roller++13/8 3/1eq: +0.728 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		80.00% (G:18.77% B:0.26%)
20.00% (G:2.42% B:0.08%)
3.XG Roller++13/8 6/4eq: +0.720 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		79.86% (G:18.20% B:0.30%)
20.14% (G:2.21% B:0.06%)
4.XG Roller++6/1 3/1eq: +0.692 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:		78.74% (G:18.23% B:0.23%)
21.26% (G:2.51% B:0.07%)
5.XG Roller++8/6 8/3eq: +0.607 (-0.156)
Player:
Opponent:		75.56% (G:17.34% B:0.32%)
24.44% (G:3.01% B:0.09%)

Πιο ευέλικτο από την πόρτα.
 
 41: 14/13 14/10 
Pip=97-151
1.XG Roller++14/13 6/2eq: -0.828
Player:
Opponent:		21.11% (G:2.51% B:0.07%)
78.89% (G:30.35% B:0.43%)
2.playedXG Roller++14/13 14/10eq: -0.828 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:		18.44% (G:2.12% B:0.06%)
81.56% (G:24.25% B:0.53%)
3.XG Roller++13/8eq: -0.893 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:		18.91% (G:2.28% B:0.06%)
81.09% (G:31.17% B:0.74%)
4.XG Roller++13/9 6/5eq: -0.901 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:		20.27% (G:3.10% B:0.14%)
79.73% (G:34.94% B:1.27%)
5.XG Roller++13/9 3/2eq: -0.905 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:		18.77% (G:2.34% B:0.07%)
81.23% (G:31.96% B:0.74%)
 
 42: 8/6 8/4 
Pip=97-146
1.xgRollout113/7eq: +0.672
Player:
Opponent:		76.72% (G:21.60% B:0.95%)
23.28% (G:3.49% B:0.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.666...+0.679) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 17 seconds
2.playedRollout18/6 8/4eq: +0.625 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		75.86% (G:18.97% B:0.36%)
24.14% (G:2.87% B:0.09%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.619...+0.631) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 17 seconds
3.XG Roller++6/4 6/2* eq: +0.575 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:		72.59% (G:22.14% B:0.48%)
27.41% (G:5.23% B:0.16%)
4.XG Roller++13/11 13/9eq: +0.523 (-0.149)
Player:
Opponent:		69.19% (G:24.80% B:1.82%)
30.81% (G:7.21% B:0.30%)
5.XG Roller++6/2* 4/2eq: +0.523 (-0.149)
Player:
Opponent:		71.01% (G:21.05% B:0.36%)
28.99% (G:5.60% B:0.18%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Προφανώς η ανοιχτή αντίπαλη πόρτα του 5, και το εσωτερικό blot, μειώνουν τόσο τον κίνδυνο που αξίζει το ρίσκο του χτυπήματος.
Τα οφέλη είναι φυσικά το καθάρισμα της midpoint και η διατήρηση της πόρτας 8.
Παρόλ' αυτά ομολογώ ότι δεν εξέτασα σοβαρά αυτό το παίξιμο.
 
 62: 23/15 
Pip=91-146
1.xgXG Roller++10/2eq: -0.652
Player:
Opponent:		24.44% (G:2.81% B:0.07%)
75.56% (G:21.54% B:0.21%)
2.XG Roller++23/17 13/11eq: -0.713 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		21.74% (G:2.42% B:0.07%)
78.26% (G:20.76% B:0.63%)
3.XG Roller++13/5eq: -0.713 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		23.34% (G:2.50% B:0.06%)
76.66% (G:24.38% B:0.65%)
4.XG Roller++23/17 10/8eq: -0.726 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:		21.25% (G:2.24% B:0.06%)
78.75% (G:21.02% B:0.46%)
5.XG Roller++13/7 10/8eq: -0.729 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:		22.36% (G:2.62% B:0.07%)
77.64% (G:23.63% B:0.62%)
6.playedXG Roller++23/15eq: -0.733 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:		20.30% (G:2.13% B:0.06%)
79.70% (G:19.58% B:0.43%)

Εδώ δεν υπάρχει λόγος να βγει το πούλι στο outfield. Ναί, σίγουρα κινδυνεύει και στο 23, λόγω των αντίπαλων τεσσάρων builder, αλλά στο outfield o αντίπαλος θα έχει την ευκαιρία να καθαρίσει τη χειρότερη πόρτα του (τη midpoint) με tempo, όπως και έγινε.
To 23/15 γίνεται ακόμα μεγαλύτερο λάθος επειδή το timing δεν είναι τόσο άσχημο, λόγω των τριών πουλίων στη midpoint ενώ η εναλλακτική (10/2) είναι πολύ εποικοδομητική.
 
 32: 13/11 13/10*  
Pip=91-138
1.playedXG Roller++13/11 13/10* eq: +0.798
Player:
Opponent:		77.15% (G:31.37% B:1.07%)
22.85% (G:3.56% B:0.13%)
2.XG Roller++13/10* 6/4eq: +0.773 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		77.56% (G:28.54% B:0.60%)
22.44% (G:3.42% B:0.12%)
3.XG Roller++13/10* 10/8eq: +0.718 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:		75.53% (G:28.37% B:0.74%)
24.47% (G:4.26% B:0.16%)
4.4-ply4/1 3/1eq: +0.558 (-0.240)
Player:
Opponent:		76.66% (G:9.92% B:0.15%)
23.34% (G:1.77% B:0.05%)
5.4-ply6/1eq: +0.526 (-0.272)
Player:
Opponent:		75.35% (G:9.98% B:0.16%)
24.65% (G:2.13% B:0.06%)
 
 51: Bar/24 20/15*  
Pip=86-148
1.played3-plyBar/24 20/15* eq: -0.521
Player:
Opponent:		38.14% (G:8.55% B:0.37%)
61.86% (G:39.02% B:3.94%)
2.3-plyBar/20 13/12eq: -0.873 (-0.352)
Player:
Opponent:		12.73% (G:0.89% B:0.02%)
87.27% (G:15.78% B:0.09%)
3.3-plyBar/20 6/5eq: -0.875 (-0.355)
Player:
Opponent:		13.15% (G:0.80% B:0.02%)
86.85% (G:16.85% B:0.12%)
4.3-plyBar/20 10/9eq: -0.877 (-0.356)
Player:
Opponent:		12.76% (G:0.83% B:0.02%)
87.24% (G:16.18% B:0.10%)
5.3-plyBar/20 3/2eq: -0.888 (-0.368)
Player:
Opponent:		12.53% (G:0.77% B:0.02%)
87.47% (G:16.69% B:0.10%)
 
 42: Bar/23* 11/7 
Pip=101-142
1.played4-plyBar/23* 11/7eq: +0.689
Player:
Opponent:		67.67% (G:39.83% B:2.87%)
32.33% (G:3.66% B:0.11%)
2.4-plyBar/23* 6/2eq: +0.386 (-0.304)
Player:
Opponent:		57.99% (G:36.01% B:3.96%)
42.01% (G:10.34% B:0.52%)
3.3-plyBar/23* 7/3eq: +0.336 (-0.353)
Player:
Opponent:		56.70% (G:35.07% B:3.04%)
43.30% (G:10.03% B:0.45%)
 
 32: Bar/20 
Pip=95-165
1.played4-plyBar/20eq: -0.626
Player:
Opponent:		32.82% (G:3.74% B:0.09%)
67.18% (G:37.28% B:0.79%)
2.4-plyBar/23 13/10eq: -0.845 (-0.219)
Player:
Opponent:		29.22% (G:4.25% B:0.16%)
70.78% (G:47.67% B:3.06%)
3.3-plyBar/23 20/17eq: -0.996 (-0.370)
Player:
Opponent:		26.81% (G:3.57% B:0.16%)
73.19% (G:54.35% B:4.66%)
4.3-plyBar/23 15/12eq: -1.027 (-0.401)
Player:
Opponent:		25.63% (G:3.30% B:0.14%)
74.37% (G:53.74% B:5.34%)
5.3-plyBar/23 10/7eq: -1.045 (-0.419)
Player:
Opponent:		25.85% (G:3.54% B:0.15%)
74.15% (G:55.37% B:6.00%)
 
 64: 23/13 
Pip=95-160
1.played4-ply23/13eq: +0.499
Player:
Opponent:		65.97% (G:28.40% B:0.55%)
34.03% (G:3.83% B:0.12%)
2.4-ply23/17 7/3eq: +0.291 (-0.208)
Player:
Opponent:		57.48% (G:28.81% B:0.74%)
42.52% (G:6.16% B:0.19%)
3.4-ply7/1* 6/2eq: +0.180 (-0.319)
Player:
Opponent:		53.86% (G:28.96% B:0.52%)
46.14% (G:9.71% B:0.39%)
4.3-ply23/17 6/2eq: +0.127 (-0.372)
Player:
Opponent:		53.12% (G:24.43% B:0.94%)
46.88% (G:8.53% B:0.27%)
5.3-ply7/3 7/1* eq: +0.089 (-0.410)
Player:
Opponent:		50.89% (G:26.91% B:0.50%)
49.11% (G:9.47% B:0.35%)
 
 61: 13/12* 10/4 
Pip=85-160
1.xgXG Roller++15/9 13/12* eq: -0.297
Player:
Opponent:		42.62% (G:5.77% B:0.18%)
57.38% (G:29.57% B:0.85%)
2.XG Roller++13/7 13/12* eq: -0.308 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		43.62% (G:6.19% B:0.20%)
56.38% (G:31.86% B:2.19%)
3.XG Roller++13/12* 12/6eq: -0.329 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		39.83% (G:4.83% B:0.14%)
60.17% (G:25.86% B:0.57%)
4.playedXG Roller++13/12* 10/4eq: -0.414 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:		37.02% (G:4.32% B:0.12%)
62.98% (G:27.26% B:0.65%)
5.XG Roller++20/14 13/12* eq: -0.429 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:		40.84% (G:5.98% B:0.20%)
59.16% (G:35.34% B:3.33%)

Αντί να προστεθεί builder για την πόρτα 5 με 15/9, αφαιρείται με 10/4. Η διαφορά τριών builder έναντι ενός είναι τεράστια και τώρα, που αντίπαλος χτυπημένος, είναι η ευκαιρία να παρθεί λίγο ρίσκο.


 
 53: Bar/20 6/3 
Pip=97-153
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/20 6/3eq: +0.509
Player:
Opponent:		65.24% (G:30.82% B:0.84%)
34.76% (G:4.03% B:0.14%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/20 4/1* eq: +0.494 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		65.56% (G:30.23% B:0.50%)
34.44% (G:5.68% B:0.20%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/20 7/4eq: +0.489 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		63.98% (G:32.02% B:0.98%)
36.02% (G:4.79% B:0.18%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/17eq: +0.423 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:		63.66% (G:26.39% B:0.81%)
36.34% (G:4.32% B:0.16%)

Το χτύπημα είναι σχεδόν ισοδύναμο, αλλά σ' αυτή τη δίκοπη θέση θέλω να μειώσω το ρίσκο.
Το 6/3 εκμεταλλεύεται το προηγούμενο άντιπαλο λάθος: εφόσον δεν υπάρχουν αρκετοί builder, μπορώ να μείνω στο 20 χωρίς να ρισκάρω περισσότερο.


 
 42: 24/20 15/13 
Pip=89-153
1.playedXG Roller++24/20 15/13eq: -0.606
Player:
Opponent:		27.88% (G:2.23% B:0.06%)
72.12% (G:24.40% B:0.21%)
2.XG Roller++24/20 4/2eq: -0.681 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:		27.62% (G:2.36% B:0.06%)
72.38% (G:30.53% B:0.35%)
3.XG Roller++24/20 12/10eq: -0.714 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:		27.80% (G:2.38% B:0.06%)
72.20% (G:33.95% B:0.49%)
4.XG Roller++24/20 6/4eq: -0.725 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:		25.03% (G:1.91% B:0.06%)
74.97% (G:28.85% B:0.26%)
5.XG Roller++15/11 13/11eq: -0.765 (-0.159)
Player:
Opponent:		27.55% (G:3.18% B:0.10%)
72.45% (G:38.30% B:0.95%)
 
 32: 4/1 3/1 
Pip=89-147
1.playedXG Roller++4/1 3/1eq: +0.407
Player:
Opponent:		65.55% (G:20.24% B:0.15%)
34.45% (G:2.64% B:0.09%)
2.XG Roller++7/2eq: +0.303 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:		60.10% (G:23.38% B:0.30%)
39.90% (G:4.05% B:0.15%)
3.XG Roller++7/4 3/1eq: +0.299 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:		60.00% (G:23.08% B:0.28%)
40.00% (G:3.84% B:0.13%)
4.XG Roller++6/1eq: +0.281 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:		59.73% (G:22.22% B:0.24%)
40.27% (G:4.00% B:0.14%)
5.4-ply20/15eq: +0.256 (-0.151)
Player:
Opponent:		61.82% (G:14.75% B:0.22%)
38.18% (G:3.48% B:0.11%)
 
 61: 20/14 13/12 
Pip=84-147
1.xgXG Roller++20/14 6/5* eq: -0.444
Player:
Opponent:		38.09% (G:2.95% B:0.07%)
61.91% (G:31.92% B:0.36%)
2.XG Roller++12/5* eq: -0.450 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		35.83% (G:2.75% B:0.06%)
64.17% (G:27.42% B:0.19%)
3.playedXG Roller++20/14 13/12eq: -0.507 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:		32.80% (G:2.60% B:0.06%)
67.20% (G:26.22% B:0.21%)
4.XG Roller++13/7 6/5* eq: -0.549 (-0.105)
Player:
Opponent:		35.95% (G:2.99% B:0.07%)
64.05% (G:36.74% B:0.69%)
5.XG Roller++12/6 4/3eq: -0.564 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:		25.94% (G:1.80% B:0.04%)
74.06% (G:16.20% B:0.13%)

Το χτύπημα εδώ είναι θεματικό, ακόμα και με χειρότερο στρατόπεδο, λόγω της καλής anchor, αλλά κυρίως για να μην επιτραπεί στο πούλι να δραπετεύσει.
 
 42: 7/3 6/4 
Pip=84-140
1.playedXG Roller++7/3 6/4eq: +0.262
Player:
Opponent:		57.88% (G:24.29% B:0.20%)
42.12% (G:3.50% B:0.13%)
2.XG Roller++6/4 6/2eq: +0.242 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		57.81% (G:23.00% B:0.22%)
42.19% (G:4.13% B:0.15%)
3.XG Roller++7/1eq: +0.221 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		56.49% (G:23.91% B:0.20%)
43.51% (G:3.77% B:0.14%)
4.XG Roller++20/14eq: +0.209 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:		59.29% (G:15.70% B:0.21%)
40.71% (G:3.10% B:0.11%)
5.XG Roller++6/2 4/2eq: +0.200 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		56.26% (G:22.78% B:0.17%)
43.74% (G:4.37% B:0.16%)
 
 44: 13/5*(2)  
Pip=78-140
1.played3-ply13/5*(2) eq: +0.531
Player:
Opponent:		67.62% (G:5.62% B:0.18%)
32.38% (G:6.16% B:0.05%)
2.2-ply13/5* 12/8(2)eq: -0.201 (-0.732)
Player:
Opponent:		45.19% (G:4.13% B:0.10%)
54.81% (G:25.08% B:0.31%)
3.2-ply20/16(2) 12/8(2)eq: -0.239 (-0.769)
Player:
Opponent:		39.75% (G:2.19% B:0.05%)
60.25% (G:15.79% B:0.06%)
4.2-ply20/16(2) 13/5* eq: -0.302 (-0.833)
Player:
Opponent:		42.28% (G:2.87% B:0.08%)
57.72% (G:27.25% B:0.32%)
5.2-ply14/10 13/9 13/5* eq: -0.326 (-0.857)
Player:
Opponent:		41.55% (G:3.93% B:0.10%)
58.45% (G:28.43% B:0.46%)
 
 43: Cannot Move 
Pip=83-124
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -0.696
Player:
Opponent:		26.58% (G:4.88% B:0.06%)
73.42% (G:5.78% B:0.11%)
 
 Double/Take 
Pip=83-124
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 73.44% (G:5.51% B:0.15%) 73.74% (G:5.41% B:0.15%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 26.56% (G:5.51% B:0.07%) 26.26% (G:5.70% B:0.06%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.464 +0.871
Cubeful Equities
xg No redouble:+0.717
played Redouble/Take:+0.634 (-0.083)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.283)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 18.5%

Νωρίς. Μπορεί το πούλι μου να είναι χτυπημένο, αλλά ο έλεγχος του outfield δεν είναι τόσο καλός και τα πίσω πούλια στο 20 αντιπροσωπεύουν πολλή δουλειά που πρέπει να γίνει. Μόλις το πούλι μου μπει, ο κίνδυνος θα χαθεί μία βολή ή να βρω μία άμεση ή έμμεση θα στοιχίζει πολύ.
 
 43: 14/10 12/9 
Pip=83-124
1.xgRollout120/17 20/16eq: +0.339
Player:
Opponent:		73.19% (G:4.15% B:0.09%)
26.81% (G:5.68% B:0.09%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.333...+0.345) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 48 seconds
2.playedRollout114/10 12/9eq: +0.275 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:		71.08% (G:5.95% B:0.17%)
28.92% (G:7.15% B:0.11%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.270...+0.280) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 18 seconds
3.XG Roller++20/13eq: +0.243 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:		71.20% (G:5.55% B:0.16%)
28.80% (G:7.62% B:0.13%)
4.XG Roller++14/11 12/8eq: +0.238 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:		70.38% (G:6.00% B:0.16%)
29.62% (G:7.99% B:0.17%)
5.XG Roller++20/16 14/11eq: +0.180 (-0.159)
Player:
Opponent:		68.95% (G:5.45% B:0.16%)
31.05% (G:8.59% B:0.18%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Θα έκανα κι εγώ το ίδιο λάθος. Γενικά, όταν στήνουμε μια επιτροπή υποδοχής για τον αντίπαλο runner, τα πούλια μας πρέπει να είναι κοντά το ένα στο άλλο, ώστε να διασφαλίζονται τουλάχιστον double shots. Υποθέτω ότι εδώ το 14/10 12/9 βλάπτει το connectivity (συνδεσιμότητα) των πουλίων, ενώ το 20/17 2016, το αυξάνει.
 
 22: Bar/23 6/2 4/2 
Pip=83-117
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/23 6/2 4/2eq: -0.026
Player:
Opponent:		37.90% (G:10.64% B:0.14%)
62.10% (G:5.89% B:0.16%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/23 4/2(3)eq: -0.146 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:		33.58% (G:7.32% B:0.06%)
66.42% (G:6.41% B:0.19%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/23 6/2 3/1eq: -0.152 (-0.127)
Player:
Opponent:		33.44% (G:9.86% B:0.14%)
66.56% (G:8.02% B:0.25%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/23 4/2 3/1(2)eq: -0.156 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:		33.11% (G:9.47% B:0.13%)
66.89% (G:7.50% B:0.24%)
5.XG Roller++Bar/23 6/4 3/1(2)eq: -0.162 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:		32.88% (G:8.84% B:0.10%)
67.12% (G:8.31% B:0.27%)
 
 64: 9/3 6/2*  
Pip=75-117
1.xgXG Roller++12/2* eq: -0.062
Player:
Opponent:		60.17% (G:7.00% B:0.19%)
39.83% (G:17.47% B:0.31%)
2.playedXG Roller++9/3 6/2* eq: -0.101 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		59.34% (G:6.53% B:0.17%)
40.66% (G:19.70% B:0.38%)
3.XG Roller++20/14 6/2* eq: -0.195 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:		57.67% (G:6.15% B:0.19%)
42.33% (G:25.10% B:1.53%)
4.XG Roller++10/4 6/2* eq: -0.207 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		55.50% (G:6.37% B:0.17%)
44.50% (G:19.65% B:0.38%)
5.4-ply10/6 9/3eq: -0.280 (-0.218)
Player:
Opponent:		48.62% (G:3.49% B:0.06%)
51.38% (G:6.54% B:0.06%)

Το χτύπημα είναι αναγκαστικό, παρά το χειρότερο board (δεν μπορεί να επιτραπεί στο αντίπαλο πούλι να πεταχτεί στο outfield).
Για το 6, δεν υπάρχει λόγος να θαφτεί πούλι στο 3, οπότε 12/6.
 
 No double 
Pip=77-107
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 40.86% (G:19.50% B:0.38%) 41.12% (G:19.21% B:0.36%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 59.14% (G:6.35% B:0.17%) 58.88% (G:5.97% B:0.17%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.000 +0.079
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.103
     Redouble/Take:+0.020 (-0.083)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.897)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.8%
 
 21: Bar/23* 3/2 
Pip=77-107
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/23* 3/2eq: +0.932
Player:
Opponent:		67.25% (G:42.49% B:0.66%)
32.75% (G:3.37% B:0.11%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/23* 7/6eq: +0.917 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		67.01% (G:42.43% B:0.69%)
32.99% (G:3.76% B:0.12%)
3.2-plyBar/23* 2/1eq: +0.305 (-0.628)
Player:
Opponent:		46.10% (G:22.12% B:0.22%)
53.90% (G:12.51% B:0.53%)
4.2-plyBar/23* 4/3eq: +0.255 (-0.677)
Player:
Opponent:		43.90% (G:20.37% B:0.19%)
56.10% (G:13.23% B:0.55%)
5.2-plyBar/24 3/1eq: -0.069 (-1.001)
Player:
Opponent:		35.32% (G:6.46% B:0.04%)
64.68% (G:5.68% B:0.15%)
 
 43: Cannot Move 
Pip=74-130
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -1.257
Player:
Opponent:		23.26% (G:2.57% B:0.11%)
76.74% (G:52.14% B:0.80%)
 
 No double 
Pip=74-130
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 75.92% (G:51.79% B:0.95%) 76.83% (G:50.12% B:0.75%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 24.08% (G:2.41% B:0.06%) 23.17% (G:2.20% B:0.05%)
  Cubeless Equities +1.117 +1.886
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+1.201
     Redouble/Take:+1.862 (+0.661)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.201)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 23.3%

Το σκέφτηκα λίγο, αλλά το too good είναι ξακάθαρο. Τα δύο blot στο outfield υπόσχονται πολλά gammons, ενώ τα δύο πούλια μου στο 7 θα διαφυλάξουν το πεντάπορτό μου για τουλάχιστον μία ζαριά, αν δεν βγω τώρα έξω.


 
 51: 23/18 2/1 
Pip=74-130
1.playedXG Roller++23/18 2/1eq: +1.401
Player:
Opponent:		83.84% (G:54.85% B:0.93%)
16.16% (G:1.36% B:0.05%)
2.XG Roller++23/18 3/2eq: +1.385 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		83.58% (G:53.91% B:0.86%)
16.42% (G:1.38% B:0.05%)
3.XG Roller++23/18 7/6eq: +1.366 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		81.37% (G:57.80% B:1.14%)
18.63% (G:2.26% B:0.08%)
4.XG Roller++23/17eq: +1.354 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		82.34% (G:53.67% B:0.99%)
17.66% (G:1.49% B:0.05%)
5.3-ply7/6 7/2eq: +0.940 (-0.461)
Player:
Opponent:		65.45% (G:42.08% B:0.55%)
34.55% (G:3.01% B:0.06%)
 
 32: Cannot Move 
Pip=68-130
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -1.696
Player:
Opponent:		9.16% (G:0.67% B:0.04%)
90.84% (G:70.05% B:1.33%)
 
 21: 18/15*  
Pip=68-130
1.played3-ply18/15* eq: +1.803
Player:
Opponent:		91.16% (G:78.50% B:2.28%)
8.84% (G:0.53% B:0.02%)
2.3-ply7/4eq: +1.401 (-0.402)
Player:
Opponent:		81.75% (G:59.06% B:1.19%)
18.25% (G:2.23% B:0.07%)
3.3-ply7/6 3/1eq: +1.365 (-0.438)
Player:
Opponent:		80.94% (G:57.12% B:0.97%)
19.06% (G:2.33% B:0.07%)
4.3-ply18/17 3/1eq: +1.363 (-0.440)
Player:
Opponent:		81.08% (G:54.36% B:0.86%)
18.92% (G:1.66% B:0.05%)
5.3-ply18/16 3/2eq: +1.333 (-0.470)
Player:
Opponent:		81.81% (G:49.89% B:0.85%)
18.19% (G:1.50% B:0.04%)
 
 41: Cannot Move 
Pip=65-145
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -1.903
Player:
Opponent:		6.19% (G:0.34% B:0.02%)
93.81% (G:83.05% B:2.63%)
 
 33: 15/6 7/4 
Pip=65-145
1.playedXG Roller++15/6 7/4eq: +1.926
Player:
Opponent:		95.30% (G:84.32% B:1.47%)
4.70% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++15/9 7/4(2)eq: +1.906 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		94.71% (G:83.58% B:1.52%)
5.29% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++15/12 7/4 7/1eq: +1.868 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:		93.85% (G:81.96% B:1.17%)
6.15% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++15/3eq: +1.857 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:		93.77% (G:81.24% B:1.01%)
6.23% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++15/9 7/1eq: +1.845 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:		93.47% (G:80.70% B:0.96%)
6.53% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
 
 54: Bar/20 
Pip=53-145
1.played3-plyBar/20eq: -1.895
Player:
Opponent:		4.24% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
95.76% (G:81.53% B:0.41%)
 
 32: 7/2 
Pip=53-140
1.xgXG Roller++7/4 6/4eq: +1.859
Player:
Opponent:		96.18% (G:78.56% B:0.30%)
3.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.playedXG Roller++7/2eq: +1.842 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		95.23% (G:78.55% B:0.31%)
4.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++7/4 3/1eq: +1.812 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		94.86% (G:76.65% B:0.27%)
5.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++6/1eq: +1.700 (-0.159)
Player:
Opponent:		91.29% (G:72.80% B:0.23%)
8.71% (G:0.44% B:0.01%)
5.4-ply4/1 3/1eq: +1.698 (-0.161)
Player:
Opponent:		91.76% (G:70.84% B:0.22%)
8.24% (G:0.40% B:0.02%)
 
 63: Cannot Move 
Pip=48-140
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -1.916
Player:
Opponent:		5.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.78% (G:84.74% B:0.56%)
 
 63: 6/Off 4/1 
Pip=48-140
1.playedXG Roller++6/Off 4/1eq: +1.942
Player:
Opponent:		95.79% (G:86.15% B:0.40%)
4.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++6/Off 3/Offeq: +1.936 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		94.86% (G:86.63% B:0.64%)
5.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.2-ply6/3 6/Offeq: +1.269 (-0.672)
Player:
Opponent:		74.10% (G:60.97% B:0.35%)
25.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 51: Bar/20 12/11 
Pip=39-140
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/20 12/11eq: -1.946
Player:
Opponent:		2.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.15% (G:84.96% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/20 3/2eq: -1.954 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		2.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.19% (G:85.63% B:0.03%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/20 4/3eq: -1.962 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		2.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.30% (G:85.98% B:0.02%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/20 6/5eq: -1.992 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:		1.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.03% (G:86.94% B:0.05%)
5.XG Roller++Bar/20 5/4eq: -2.003 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:		1.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.44% (G:87.26% B:0.04%)
 
 31: 3/Off 1/Off 
Pip=39-134
1.playedXG Roller++3/Off 1/Offeq: +1.930
Player:
Opponent:		97.29% (G:83.25% B:0.02%)
2.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++4/Offeq: +1.842 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:		96.82% (G:76.58% B:0.01%)
3.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++3/Off 2/1eq: +1.839 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:		96.97% (G:76.11% B:0.01%)
3.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++3/2 3/Offeq: +1.834 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:		96.78% (G:76.03% B:0.01%)
3.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++4/1 3/2eq: +1.780 (-0.150)
Player:
Opponent:		96.78% (G:71.46% B:0.01%)
3.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 52: 20/18 11/6 
Pip=35-134
1.xgXG Roller++20/18 20/15eq: -1.960
Player:
Opponent:		2.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.32% (G:85.71% B:0.01%)
2.playedXG Roller++20/18 11/6eq: -1.961 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		2.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.38% (G:85.64% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller++20/13eq: -1.964 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		2.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.29% (G:86.13% B:0.02%)
4.XG Roller++20/15 11/9eq: -1.971 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		2.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.37% (G:86.55% B:0.03%)
5.XG Roller++11/6 4/2eq: -1.987 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		2.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.41% (G:87.84% B:0.05%)
 
 51: 6/Off 
Pip=35-127
1.playedXG Roller++6/Offeq: +1.376
Player:
Opponent:		79.73% (G:62.25% B:0.07%)
20.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++6/1 4/3eq: +1.261 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:		78.26% (G:55.65% B:0.04%)
21.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++6/1 2/1eq: +1.258 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:		78.27% (G:55.54% B:0.04%)
21.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++6/1 3/2eq: +1.221 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent:		76.96% (G:55.11% B:0.04%)
23.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 53: 20/12 
Pip=29-127
1.playedXG Roller++20/12eq: -2.027
Player:
Opponent:		0.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.54% (G:88.14% B:0.01%)
2.XG Roller++20/17 18/13eq: -2.034 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		0.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.54% (G:88.74% B:0.01%)
3.XG Roller++18/10eq: -2.035 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		0.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.52% (G:88.92% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++20/15 18/15eq: -2.036 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		0.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.54% (G:88.94% B:0.01%)
5.XG Roller++20/17 20/15eq: -2.052 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		0.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.92% (G:89.75% B:0.01%)
 
 33: 6/Off 3/Off(2) 
Pip=29-119
1.playedXG Roller++6/Off 3/Off(2)eq: +2.106
Player:
Opponent:		99.98% (G:94.35% B:0.00%)
0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++6/Off 4/1 3/Offeq: +2.058 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		99.98% (G:90.19% B:0.00%)
0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++6/Off 4/1(2)eq: +2.052 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		99.98% (G:89.71% B:0.00%)
0.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++4/1(2) 3/Off(2)eq: +1.462 (-0.645)
Player:
Opponent:		82.40% (G:63.51% B:0.07%)
17.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 11: 20/18(2) 
Pip=17-119
1.xgXG Roller++20/16eq: -2.147
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:97.81% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++20/19 20/18 12/11eq: -2.148 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:97.88% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++20/17 12/11eq: -2.148 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:97.89% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++20/18 12/10eq: -2.148 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:97.90% B:0.00%)
5.playedXG Roller++20/18(2)eq: -2.148 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:97.90% B:0.00%)
 
 64: 4/Off(2) 
Pip=17-115
1.played3-ply4/Off(2)eq: +2.162
Player:
Opponent:		100.00% (G:99.09% B:0.00%)
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 61: 18/17 12/6 
Pip=9-115
1.XG Roller++18/17 18/12eq: -2.170
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:99.78% B:0.00%)
2.playedXG Roller++18/17 12/6eq: -2.170 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:99.78% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++18/11eq: -2.170 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:99.79% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++12/6 3/2eq: -2.171 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:99.83% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++12/6 5/4eq: -2.171 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:99.83% B:0.00%)
 
 22: 2/Off(3) 1/Off 
Pip=9-108
1.played3-ply2/Off(3) 1/Offeq: +2.173
Player:
Opponent:		100.00% (G:100.00% B:0.00%)
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 42: 18/16 17/13 
Pip=2-108
1.XG Roller++6/4 5/1eq: -2.173
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:100.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++17/15 5/1eq: -2.173
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:100.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++18/16 6/2eq: -2.173
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:100.00% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++5/1 3/1eq: -2.173
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:100.00% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++5/1 4/2eq: -2.173
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:100.00% B:0.00%)
6.playedXG Roller++18/16 17/13eq: -2.173
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:100.00% B:0.00%)
 
 66: 1/Off(2) 
Pip=2-102
1.played3-ply1/Off(2)eq: +2.173
Player:
Opponent:		100.00% (G:100.00% B:0.00%)
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 Wins a Gammon 8pts. 

Game Summary:

mman  Category Iskandar 
World Class (-0.0064) Total Error Intermediate (-0.0260)
World Class (-0.0056) Checker Play Advanced (-0.0249)
Expert (-0.0113) Cube Play Casual Player (-0.0415)
3.21 Performance Rating 12.98
3(1) Move Errors 8(4)
-0.181(-1.27%) Equity lost (cost) -0.747(-7.21%)
     
1 Double Errors 1(1)
-0.057(-0.25%) Equity lost (cost) -0.083(-0.75%)
     
0 Take Errors 0
+0.000 Equity lost (cost) +0.000
     
4(1) Total Error 9(5)
-0.237(-1.52%) Equity lost (cost) -0.830(-7.96%)
     
4 Jokers 3
+1.777(+37.59%) Luck -1.777(-37.59%)

 Game 4

13 point match, Score is mman: 8, Iskandar: 3

 
 42: 8/4 6/4 
Pip=167-167
1.playedBook18/4 6/4eq: +0.344
Player:
Opponent:		53.57% (G:16.33% B:0.68%)
46.43% (G:11.78% B:0.56%)
2.Book113/11 13/9eq: +0.183 (-0.161)
Player:
Opponent:		49.50% (G:14.91% B:0.62%)
50.50% (G:13.36% B:0.75%)
3.Book124/20 13/11eq: +0.179 (-0.165)
Player:
Opponent:		50.01% (G:13.57% B:0.67%)
49.99% (G:13.18% B:0.59%)
4.Book124/22 13/9eq: +0.177 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent:		49.82% (G:13.96% B:0.55%)
50.18% (G:13.17% B:0.52%)
5.4-ply24/22 24/20eq: +0.117 (-0.227)
Player:
Opponent:		49.36% (G:11.93% B:0.53%)
50.64% (G:13.21% B:0.44%)
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 21-May-11 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
 
 52: 24/22 13/8 
Pip=167-161
1.playedXG Roller++24/22 13/8eq: -0.437
Player:
Opponent:		44.14% (G:10.95% B:0.52%)
55.86% (G:17.65% B:0.64%)
2.XG Roller++13/11 13/8eq: -0.511 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:		42.75% (G:11.64% B:0.58%)
57.25% (G:18.22% B:0.94%)
3.XG Roller++13/8 6/4eq: -0.554 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:		41.86% (G:10.39% B:0.47%)
58.14% (G:18.47% B:1.08%)
4.XG Roller++13/6eq: -0.594 (-0.157)
Player:
Opponent:		40.95% (G:10.79% B:0.52%)
59.05% (G:19.18% B:0.96%)
5.4-ply24/22 8/3eq: -0.689 (-0.252)
Player:
Opponent:		39.77% (G:9.63% B:0.43%)
60.23% (G:21.78% B:1.13%)
 
 No double 
Pip=160-161
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 55.91% (G:17.52% B:0.64%) 55.93% (G:17.49% B:0.64%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 44.09% (G:11.02% B:0.54%) 44.07% (G:11.15% B:0.54%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.184 +0.451
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.439
     Double/Take:+0.380 (-0.059)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.561)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.7%
 
 42: 24/18 
Pip=160-161
1.XG Roller++24/20 13/11eq: +0.303
Player:
Opponent:		53.31% (G:14.50% B:0.52%)
46.69% (G:11.60% B:0.47%)
2.xgXG Roller++13/11 13/9eq: +0.288 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		52.06% (G:16.17% B:0.54%)
47.94% (G:12.84% B:0.78%)
3.XG Roller++24/22 13/9eq: +0.243 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		51.43% (G:14.68% B:0.55%)
48.57% (G:12.36% B:0.53%)
4.XG Roller++24/20 6/4eq: +0.237 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:		51.73% (G:13.41% B:0.47%)
48.27% (G:11.69% B:0.42%)
5.playedXG Roller++24/18eq: +0.236 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:		52.38% (G:12.51% B:0.44%)
47.62% (G:11.87% B:0.40%)

Τυπική περίπτωση που το ξεστακάρισμα της midpoint είναι το καλύτερο ακόμα και όταν ο αντίπαλος έχει διαχωρίσει τα πίσω πούλια του.
Το 24/18 μού δίνει περισσότερα και πιο άνετα χτυπήματα, και γενικά είναι προτιμότερο, όταν τα πιο "φυσιολογικά" παιξίματα είναι πολύ προβληματικά.
 
 43: 22/15 
Pip=160-155
1.xgRollout113/6eq: -0.505
Player:
Opponent:		41.51% (G:11.20% B:0.53%)
58.49% (G:17.81% B:0.64%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.520...-0.490) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 37 seconds
2.playedRollout122/15eq: -0.569 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:		40.51% (G:8.96% B:0.47%)
59.49% (G:17.99% B:0.65%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.582...-0.557) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 43 seconds
3.XG Roller++8/1* eq: -0.520 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		41.12% (G:10.64% B:0.29%)
58.88% (G:16.11% B:0.80%)
4.XG Roller++24/20 13/10eq: -0.543 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		40.82% (G:9.26% B:0.39%)
59.18% (G:17.27% B:0.84%)
5.XG Roller++24/20 8/5eq: -0.638 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:		39.60% (G:9.06% B:0.36%)
60.40% (G:19.07% B:0.95%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Ακόμα και τώρα που το βλέπω, εξακολουθεί να μου κάνει εντύπωση αυτό. Δεν ήθελα να στοιβάξω έκτο πούλι στο 6, αλλά προφανώς το χτύπημα στο outfield κοστίζει λόγω της ίσης κούρσας, του καλύτερου αντίπαλου στρατοπέδου και του builder που θα κατέβει στο outfield χτυπώντας.
 
 No double 
Pip=153-155
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 59.19% (G:17.25% B:0.58%) 59.19% (G:17.57% B:0.59%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 40.81% (G:8.38% B:0.30%) 40.81% (G:8.45% B:0.31%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.274 +0.629
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.561
     Double/Take:+0.544 (-0.017)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.439)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.6%
 
 65: 24/18 13/8 
Pip=153-155
1.playedXG Roller++24/18 13/8eq: +0.505
Player:
Opponent:		59.03% (G:13.24% B:0.25%)
40.97% (G:5.82% B:0.19%)
2.XG Roller++24/18 6/1* eq: +0.411 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:		55.49% (G:15.32% B:0.30%)
44.51% (G:8.59% B:0.31%)
3.4-ply18/7eq: +0.298 (-0.208)
Player:
Opponent:		52.53% (G:15.11% B:0.40%)
47.47% (G:9.70% B:0.35%)
4.4-ply13/7 6/1* eq: +0.297 (-0.209)
Player:
Opponent:		52.12% (G:17.86% B:0.51%)
47.88% (G:12.98% B:0.75%)
5.4-ply24/13eq: +0.264 (-0.241)
Player:
Opponent:		54.06% (G:10.09% B:0.31%)
45.94% (G:8.79% B:0.23%)
 
 64: 15/9 13/9 
Pip=153-144
1.playedXG Roller++15/9 13/9eq: -0.427
Player:
Opponent:		42.85% (G:6.57% B:0.21%)
57.15% (G:12.46% B:0.25%)
2.XG Roller++15/5eq: -0.500 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:		41.30% (G:6.93% B:0.21%)
58.70% (G:14.29% B:0.28%)
3.4-ply24/14eq: -0.667 (-0.240)
Player:
Opponent:		37.38% (G:3.63% B:0.10%)
62.62% (G:15.07% B:0.36%)
4.4-ply15/9 8/4eq: -0.667 (-0.240)
Player:
Opponent:		37.56% (G:6.82% B:0.20%)
62.44% (G:16.28% B:0.53%)
5.4-ply8/2 6/2eq: -0.718 (-0.292)
Player:
Opponent:		36.96% (G:6.74% B:0.16%)
63.04% (G:17.40% B:0.52%)
 
 No double 
Pip=143-144
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 57.28% (G:12.62% B:0.25%) 57.30% (G:12.63% B:0.25%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 42.72% (G:6.91% B:0.24%) 42.70% (G:6.56% B:0.21%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.202 +0.468
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.437
     Double/Take:+0.356 (-0.080)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.563)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.1%
 
 63: 13/4 
Pip=143-144
1.playedXG Roller++13/4eq: +0.336
Player:
Opponent:		55.20% (G:10.37% B:0.17%)
44.80% (G:6.08% B:0.21%)
2.XG Roller++13/10 13/7eq: +0.259 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:		52.24% (G:12.20% B:0.24%)
47.76% (G:8.25% B:0.29%)
3.XG Roller++18/9eq: +0.174 (-0.161)
Player:
Opponent:		51.20% (G:10.11% B:0.30%)
48.80% (G:9.51% B:0.32%)
4.4-ply13/7 8/5eq: +0.149 (-0.187)
Player:
Opponent:		48.90% (G:12.20% B:0.23%)
51.10% (G:9.57% B:0.29%)
5.4-ply13/10 8/2eq: +0.146 (-0.190)
Player:
Opponent:		50.06% (G:10.45% B:0.19%)
49.94% (G:8.75% B:0.27%)
 
 21: 6/5 6/4 
Pip=143-135
1.playedXG Roller++6/5 6/4eq: -0.478
Player:
Opponent:		42.11% (G:7.79% B:0.30%)
57.89% (G:14.84% B:0.27%)
2.XG Roller++8/5eq: -0.485 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		41.56% (G:7.10% B:0.26%)
58.44% (G:13.83% B:0.22%)
3.XG Roller++24/22 6/5eq: -0.515 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		41.35% (G:6.93% B:0.28%)
58.65% (G:15.85% B:0.26%)
4.XG Roller++6/3eq: -0.529 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:		40.70% (G:6.87% B:0.26%)
59.30% (G:14.88% B:0.23%)
5.XG Roller++24/23 6/4eq: -0.569 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:		39.98% (G:6.63% B:0.25%)
60.02% (G:15.61% B:0.25%)
 
 No double 
Pip=140-135
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 57.65% (G:15.18% B:0.26%) 57.59% (G:15.58% B:0.25%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 42.35% (G:8.02% B:0.32%) 42.41% (G:8.40% B:0.34%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.223 +0.512
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.477
     Double/Take:+0.419 (-0.058)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.523)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.1%
 
 21: 13/11 6/5 
Pip=140-135
1.XG Roller++13/11 8/7eq: +0.292
Player:
Opponent:		53.50% (G:12.61% B:0.24%)
46.50% (G:9.40% B:0.38%)
2.playedXG Roller++13/11 6/5eq: +0.289 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		53.32% (G:12.96% B:0.30%)
46.68% (G:10.05% B:0.36%)
3.XG Roller++13/10eq: +0.272 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		53.90% (G:9.28% B:0.16%)
46.10% (G:6.71% B:0.22%)
4.XG Roller++4/1* eq: +0.252 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		52.16% (G:12.25% B:0.22%)
47.84% (G:8.50% B:0.33%)
5.XG Roller++13/11 4/3eq: +0.226 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:		52.25% (G:11.31% B:0.27%)
47.75% (G:9.95% B:0.38%)
 
 54: 24/20* 9/4 
Pip=140-132
1.played4-ply24/20* 9/4eq: -0.169
Player:
Opponent:		49.98% (G:14.44% B:0.54%)
50.02% (G:15.34% B:0.76%)
2.4-ply24/20* 20/15eq: -0.394 (-0.225)
Player:
Opponent:		45.84% (G:8.90% B:0.39%)
54.16% (G:18.16% B:0.74%)
3.4-ply9/5 9/4eq: -0.432 (-0.263)
Player:
Opponent:		41.65% (G:6.94% B:0.19%)
58.35% (G:11.88% B:0.17%)
4.4-ply24/20* 13/8eq: -0.458 (-0.289)
Player:
Opponent:		43.61% (G:10.59% B:0.42%)
56.39% (G:19.30% B:0.83%)
5.3-ply13/4eq: -0.504 (-0.335)
Player:
Opponent:		40.13% (G:6.83% B:0.22%)
59.87% (G:12.75% B:0.21%)
 
 No double 
Pip=131-152
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 49.92% (G:15.45% B:0.69%) 50.09% (G:15.79% B:0.70%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 50.08% (G:14.54% B:0.55%) 49.91% (G:15.13% B:0.61%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.011 +0.114
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.167
     Double/Take:+0.054 (-0.112)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.833)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.6%
 
 43: Bar/18 
Pip=131-152
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/18eq: -0.275
Player:
Opponent:		38.84% (G:7.00% B:0.19%)
61.16% (G:11.87% B:0.32%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 11/7eq: -0.442 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent:		35.68% (G:7.09% B:0.22%)
64.32% (G:19.11% B:0.62%)
3.4-plyBar/22 8/4eq: -0.525 (-0.250)
Player:
Opponent:		33.45% (G:6.75% B:0.20%)
66.55% (G:21.60% B:0.75%)
4.4-plyBar/22 6/2eq: -0.603 (-0.328)
Player:
Opponent:		31.74% (G:6.13% B:0.16%)
68.26% (G:23.66% B:0.80%)
5.3-plyBar/22 13/9eq: -0.621 (-0.345)
Player:
Opponent:		32.16% (G:7.21% B:0.39%)
67.84% (G:30.41% B:1.99%)
 
 32: 20/18 9/6 
Pip=131-145
1.xgXG Roller++8/6 8/5eq: -0.150
Player:
Opponent:		49.96% (G:12.55% B:0.39%)
50.04% (G:11.54% B:0.30%)
2.XG Roller++8/5 6/4eq: -0.173 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		49.49% (G:12.27% B:0.39%)
50.51% (G:11.97% B:0.29%)
3.playedXG Roller++20/18 9/6eq: -0.181 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		49.00% (G:9.22% B:0.29%)
51.00% (G:10.37% B:0.25%)
4.XG Roller++9/6 8/6eq: -0.182 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		48.89% (G:12.62% B:0.41%)
51.11% (G:11.79% B:0.29%)
5.XG Roller++9/4eq: -0.197 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		48.69% (G:12.59% B:0.41%)
51.31% (G:12.31% B:0.29%)

Χαρακτηριστικό παράδειγμα του πόσο ισχυρή θεωρείται η πόρτα 5.
 
 Double/Take 
Pip=126-145
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 50.91% (G:10.28% B:0.22%) 50.92% (G:10.64% B:0.23%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 49.09% (G:9.40% B:0.31%) 49.08% (G:10.08% B:0.35%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.027 +0.109
Cubeful Equities
xg No double:+0.184
played Double/Take:+0.003 (-0.181)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.816)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.3%

Σίγουρα πολύ νωρίς. Ο Μίμης είναι σημαντικά πίσω στην κούρσα και έχει να καθαρίσει τη bar point μου. Ένας τέτοιος βίδος δεν δικαιολογείται ούτε από το σκορ (ή από τη διαφορά δυναμικότητας, αν υπήρχε τέτοιο κριτήριο).
 
 42: 11/7* 8/6 
Pip=126-145
1.xgXG Roller++13/7* eq: -0.027
Player:
Opponent:		49.83% (G:10.86% B:0.25%)
50.17% (G:11.74% B:0.42%)
2.XG Roller++18/16 11/7* eq: -0.042 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		49.29% (G:10.49% B:0.29%)
50.71% (G:11.30% B:0.42%)
3.playedXG Roller++11/7* 8/6eq: -0.084 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:		47.71% (G:9.17% B:0.16%)
52.29% (G:8.81% B:0.30%)
4.XG Roller++11/7* 7/5eq: -0.128 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:		46.11% (G:9.73% B:0.19%)
53.89% (G:13.19% B:0.39%)
5.XG Roller++11/7* 6/4eq: -0.161 (-0.134)
Player:
Opponent:		45.20% (G:7.33% B:0.15%)
54.80% (G:9.02% B:0.28%)

Είναι σημαντικό να κρατηθεί ο τέταρτος builder για την πόρτα 5. Η κατανομή του θα ήταν πολύ καλύτερη μετά από 13/7*.
 
 63: Bar/16 
Pip=133-139
1.played4-plyBar/16eq: +0.146
Player:
Opponent:		54.51% (G:5.47% B:0.19%)
45.49% (G:6.97% B:0.16%)
2.4-plyBar/22 8/2eq: -0.032 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:		48.23% (G:9.06% B:0.27%)
51.77% (G:11.41% B:0.27%)
 
 53: 18/13 8/5 
Pip=124-139
1.xgXG Roller++8/3 6/3eq: -0.344
Player:
Opponent:		38.28% (G:2.88% B:0.04%)
61.72% (G:2.79% B:0.08%)
2.playedXG Roller++18/13 8/5eq: -0.366 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		37.62% (G:2.45% B:0.04%)
62.38% (G:3.14% B:0.16%)
3.XG Roller++18/13 6/3eq: -0.369 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		37.50% (G:2.27% B:0.05%)
62.50% (G:2.85% B:0.10%)
4.XG Roller++6/1 4/1eq: -0.373 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		37.08% (G:2.66% B:0.02%)
62.92% (G:2.78% B:0.07%)
5.XG Roller++8/5 7/2eq: -0.375 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		37.18% (G:2.50% B:0.03%)
62.82% (G:3.09% B:0.10%)
 
 32: 16/13 8/6 
Pip=124-131
1.XG Roller++16/13 6/4eq: +0.354
Player:
Opponent:		61.22% (G:1.14% B:0.02%)
38.78% (G:0.97% B:0.01%)
2.playedXG Roller++16/13 8/6eq: +0.352 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		61.15% (G:1.21% B:0.02%)
38.85% (G:0.96% B:0.01%)
3.xgXG Roller++16/13 5/3eq: +0.349 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		61.05% (G:1.22% B:0.02%)
38.95% (G:1.02% B:0.01%)
4.XG Roller++16/13 4/2eq: +0.347 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		61.01% (G:1.24% B:0.03%)
38.99% (G:1.13% B:0.02%)
5.XG Roller++16/14 8/5eq: +0.201 (-0.153)
Player:
Opponent:		55.72% (G:3.81% B:0.12%)
44.28% (G:4.25% B:0.06%)
 
 42: 13/9 7/5 
Pip=119-131
1.xgXG Roller++13/11 7/3eq: -0.410
Player:
Opponent:		36.20% (G:1.00% B:0.01%)
63.80% (G:1.22% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++13/11 6/2eq: -0.411 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		36.13% (G:0.99% B:0.01%)
63.87% (G:1.16% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller++7/3 4/2eq: -0.411 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		36.16% (G:1.04% B:0.01%)
63.84% (G:1.25% B:0.02%)
4.XG Roller++7/5 6/2eq: -0.411 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		36.15% (G:0.99% B:0.01%)
63.85% (G:1.15% B:0.02%)
5.XG Roller++13/9 4/2eq: -0.412 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		36.12% (G:0.98% B:0.01%)
63.88% (G:1.10% B:0.02%)
6.playedXG Roller++13/9 7/5eq: -0.412 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		36.12% (G:0.96% B:0.01%)
63.88% (G:1.17% B:0.02%)
 
 41: 13/8 
Pip=119-125
1.playedXG Roller++13/8eq: +0.336
Player:
Opponent:		60.53% (G:1.08% B:0.02%)
39.47% (G:0.95% B:0.01%)
2.XG Roller++6/5 6/2eq: +0.332 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		60.34% (G:1.03% B:0.02%)
39.66% (G:0.98% B:0.01%)
3.XG Roller++6/1eq: +0.331 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		60.37% (G:1.39% B:0.03%)
39.63% (G:1.25% B:0.01%)
4.XG Roller++6/2 4/3eq: +0.324 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		60.03% (G:1.20% B:0.03%)
39.97% (G:1.13% B:0.01%)
5.XG Roller++6/2 5/4eq: +0.315 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		59.66% (G:1.14% B:0.02%)
40.34% (G:1.12% B:0.01%)
 
 66: 13/7(2) 9/3 8/2 
Pip=114-125
1.playedXG Roller++13/7(2) 9/3 8/2eq: -0.035
Player:
Opponent:		52.50% (G:1.84% B:0.03%)
47.50% (G:1.87% B:0.04%)
2.XG Roller++13/7 13/1 8/2eq: -0.040 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		52.36% (G:1.75% B:0.02%)
47.64% (G:1.79% B:0.04%)
3.xgXG Roller++13/7 13/1 9/3eq: -0.041 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		52.25% (G:1.84% B:0.02%)
47.75% (G:1.84% B:0.05%)
4.XG Roller++13/1(2)eq: -0.046 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		52.05% (G:1.72% B:0.02%)
47.95% (G:1.80% B:0.03%)
5.XG Roller++13/1 9/3 8/2eq: -0.081 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:		50.32% (G:2.55% B:0.03%)
49.68% (G:3.14% B:0.11%)
 
 53: 13/5 
Pip=114-101
1.playedXG Roller++13/5eq: +0.037
Player:
Opponent:		47.38% (G:1.72% B:0.04%)
52.62% (G:1.45% B:0.02%)
2.xgXG Roller++8/3 6/3eq: +0.036 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		47.27% (G:1.65% B:0.03%)
52.73% (G:1.25% B:0.01%)
3.XG Roller++8/5 8/3eq: +0.027 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		46.96% (G:1.71% B:0.04%)
53.04% (G:1.50% B:0.02%)
4.XG Roller++8/5 6/1eq: +0.017 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		46.67% (G:2.05% B:0.05%)
53.33% (G:2.03% B:0.03%)
5.XG Roller++13/8 6/3eq: +0.004 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		46.25% (G:2.03% B:0.06%)
53.75% (G:2.20% B:0.05%)
 
 64: 7/1 6/2 
Pip=106-101
1.playedXG Roller++7/1 6/2eq: -0.084
Player:
Opponent:		50.29% (G:2.06% B:0.04%)
49.71% (G:2.70% B:0.09%)
2.XG Roller++7/1 5/1eq: -0.124 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		48.88% (G:1.18% B:0.02%)
51.12% (G:2.63% B:0.08%)
3.XG Roller++7/3 7/1eq: -0.146 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:		47.22% (G:2.62% B:0.05%)
52.78% (G:2.58% B:0.09%)
4.4-ply18/8eq: -0.341 (-0.258)
Player:
Opponent:		38.82% (G:2.51% B:0.05%)
61.18% (G:3.84% B:0.18%)
5.3-ply18/14 7/1eq: -0.564 (-0.480)
Player:
Opponent:		30.63% (G:2.75% B:0.04%)
69.37% (G:14.12% B:0.65%)
 
 55: 13/3(2) 
Pip=106-91
1.xgXG Roller++8/3(2) 6/1(2)eq: +0.266
Player:
Opponent:		57.93% (G:1.31% B:0.03%)
42.07% (G:1.15% B:0.01%)
2.XG Roller++8/3 6/1(3)eq: +0.234 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		56.32% (G:1.04% B:0.02%)
43.68% (G:1.49% B:0.03%)
3.playedXG Roller++13/3(2)eq: +0.184 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:		53.78% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
46.22% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++13/8 13/3 6/1eq: +0.166 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:		53.02% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
46.98% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++13/8(2) 6/1(2)eq: +0.122 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		50.94% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
49.06% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)

Στην παρτίδα δοκίμασα και απέρριψα τις δύο πόρτες μέσα, σκεπτόμενος ότι η κατοχή του βίδου ευνοεί για μένα την κούρσα (πιο δύσκολα χάνεις market στην κούρσα, οπότε θα έχω μεγαλύτερο κέρδος από την κατοχή).
Όμως μετά τις 55 η κούρσα είναι ίση και το παίξιμό μου ελευθερώνει τα πούλια του στο bar point μου.
Επίσης, η χρησιμότητα για μένα ενός κύβου στο 4 σ' αυτό το σκορ είναι αρκετά περιορισμένη: Για να βιδάρω, χρειάζομαι τουλάχιστον 83% και στο 87% έχει πάσο (χωρίς να συνυπολογίσουμε τη διαφορά δυναμικότητας που θα με κάνει να βιδάρω ακόμα πιο συντηρητικά).
Νομίζω ότι ο σημαντικός παράγοντας εδώ είναι το timing. Αν κάνω δύο πόρτες μέσα, το αντίπαλο board θα χαλάσει πιο γρήγορα από το δικο μου, βελτιώνοντας έτσι την κούρσα για μένα, λόγω του wastage.
 
 62: 18/16 18/12 
Pip=86-91
1.playedXG Roller++18/16 18/12eq: -0.179
Player:
Opponent:		46.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
53.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++7/1 6/4eq: -0.273 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:		42.02% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
57.98% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++7/1 5/3eq: -0.281 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:		41.64% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
58.36% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++7/1 4/2eq: -0.301 (-0.122)
Player:
Opponent:		40.80% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
59.20% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++18/12 7/5eq: -0.403 (-0.224)
Player:
Opponent:		36.87% (G:0.40% B:0.00%)
63.13% (G:1.92% B:0.07%)
 
 41: 8/7 8/4 
Pip=86-83
1.playedXG Roller++8/7 8/4eq: +0.031
Player:
Opponent:		46.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
53.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++8/4 6/5eq: +0.031 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:		46.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
53.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++8/4 3/2eq: +0.026 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		46.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
53.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++8/3eq: +0.006 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		45.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
54.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++8/7 6/2eq: +0.003 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:		45.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
54.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 41: 16/12 7/6 
Pip=81-83
1.xgXG Roller++12/8 7/6eq: -0.187
Player:
Opponent:		45.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
54.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.playedXG Roller++16/12 7/6eq: -0.191 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		45.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
54.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++16/11eq: -0.193 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		45.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
54.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++16/15 12/8eq: -0.198 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		45.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
54.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++16/12 6/5eq: -0.201 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		45.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
54.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 51: 8/3 7/6 
Pip=81-78
1.xgXG Roller++7/2 6/5eq: +0.074
Player:
Opponent:		48.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++8/3 6/5eq: +0.071 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		48.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++8/2eq: +0.069 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		48.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.playedXG Roller++8/3 7/6eq: +0.065 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		48.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++6/5 6/1eq: +0.060 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		48.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 65: 12/7 12/6 
Pip=75-78
1.playedXG Roller++12/7 12/6eq: +0.088
Player:
Opponent:		58.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++12/1eq: +0.039 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		56.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 31: 8/5 6/5 
Pip=75-67
1.xgXG Roller++8/5 3/2eq: -0.289
Player:
Opponent:		32.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
67.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.playedXG Roller++8/5 6/5eq: -0.292 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		32.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
67.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++8/4eq: -0.320 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		30.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++8/5 4/3eq: -0.326 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		30.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++6/5 4/1eq: -0.327 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		30.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 42: 7/3 2/Off 
Pip=71-67
1.playedXG Roller++7/3 2/Offeq: +0.208
Player:
Opponent:		63.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
36.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++7/5 4/Offeq: +0.204 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		63.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
36.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++7/3 6/4eq: +0.179 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:		62.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++7/5 6/2eq: +0.170 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		62.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++7/1eq: +0.138 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:		60.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 61: 6/Off 3/2 
Pip=71-61
1.playedXG Roller++6/Off 3/2eq: -0.275
Player:
Opponent:		32.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
67.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++6/Off 5/4eq: -0.295 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		32.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
67.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply6/5 6/Offeq: -0.301 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		31.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
68.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.4-ply6/Off 4/3eq: -0.316 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		31.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
68.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 66: 6/Off(4) 
Pip=64-61
1.played3-ply6/Off(4)eq: +0.898
Player:
Opponent:		95.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 44: 5/1 4/Off(3) 
Pip=64-37
1.xgXG Roller++6/2 4/Off(3)eq: -0.795
Player:
Opponent:		9.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.playedXG Roller++5/1 4/Off(3)eq: -0.798 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		9.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply6/2 5/1 4/Off(2)eq: -0.812 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		8.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.4-ply6/2(2) 4/Off(2)eq: -0.828 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		7.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.4-ply5/1(2) 4/Off(2)eq: -0.832 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		7.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 61: 6/Off 1/Off 
Pip=48-37
1.played4-ply6/Off 1/Offeq: +0.768
Player:
Opponent:		89.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
10.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply6/Off 3/2eq: +0.733 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		87.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
12.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply6/Off 4/3eq: +0.732 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		87.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
12.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.4-ply6/Off 5/4eq: +0.721 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		87.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
12.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.4-ply6/Off 2/1eq: +0.721 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		87.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
12.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 31: 3/Off 1/Off 
Pip=48-30
1.played4-ply3/Off 1/Offeq: -0.851
Player:
Opponent:		6.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply5/4 3/Offeq: -0.869 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		6.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply6/5 3/Offeq: -0.883 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		5.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.4-ply6/3 1/Offeq: -0.889 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		5.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.4-ply5/2 1/Offeq: -0.898 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		4.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 63: 5/Off 3/Off 
Pip=44-30
1.played4-ply5/Off 3/Offeq: +0.882
Player:
Opponent:		94.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply5/Off 4/1eq: +0.866 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		93.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
6.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply5/2 5/Offeq: +0.839 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		92.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
7.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 55: 6/1 5/Off(3) 
Pip=44-22
1.played4-ply6/1 5/Off(3)eq: -0.604
Player:
Opponent:		18.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
81.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply6/1(2) 5/Off(2)eq: -0.668 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:		15.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply6/1(3) 5/Offeq: -0.783 (-0.179)
Player:
Opponent:		10.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.4-ply6/1(4)eq: -0.895 (-0.292)
Player:
Opponent:		4.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 64: 5/Off 4/Off 
Pip=24-22
1.played4-ply5/Off 4/Offeq: +0.756
Player:
Opponent:		88.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
11.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply5/1 4/Offeq: +0.632 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:		82.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
17.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 52: 6/1 2/Off 
Pip=24-13
1.played4-ply6/1 2/Offeq: -0.890
Player:
Opponent:		5.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply6/4 6/1eq: -0.897 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		4.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply6/1 3/1eq: -0.940 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:		2.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 42: 4/Off 2/Off 
Pip=17-13
1.played4-ply4/Off 2/Offeq: +0.904
Player:
Opponent:		95.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply4/Off 3/1eq: +0.846 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:		92.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
7.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply4/2 4/Offeq: +0.846 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:		92.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
7.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 52: 6/4 6/1 
Pip=17-7
1.played4-ply6/4 6/1eq: -0.998
Player:
Opponent:		0.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply6/1 3/1eq: -0.998 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:		0.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 11: 4/Off 
Pip=10-7
1.played4-ply4/Offeq: +1.000
Player:
Opponent:		100.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply4/1 3/2eq: +1.000
Player:
Opponent:		100.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 42: 4/Off 3/1 
Pip=10-3
1.4-ply4/2 3/Offeq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.played4-ply4/Off 3/1eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 31: 3/Off 
Pip=4-3
1.played3-ply3/Offeq: +1.000
Player:
Opponent:		100.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 
 Wins a Single Game 2pts. 

Game Summary:

mman  Category Iskandar 
World Class (-0.0096) Total Error Expert (-0.0134)
Expert (-0.0101) Checker Play World Class (-0.0081)
World Champ. (+0.0000) Cube Play Intermediate (-0.0301)
4.81 Performance Rating 6.69
3(1) Move Errors 3
-0.193(-1.41%) Equity lost (cost) -0.154(-1.16%)
     
0 Double Errors 1(1)
+0.000 Equity lost (cost) -0.181(-0.89%)
     
0 Take Errors 0
+0.000 Equity lost (cost) +0.000
     
3(1) Total Error 4(1)
-0.193(-1.41%) Equity lost (cost) -0.334(-2.05%)
     
1 Jokers 2
-0.863(-8.81%) Luck +0.863(+8.81%)

 Game 5

13 point match, Score is mman: 8, Iskandar: 5

 
 62: 24/18 13/11 
Pip=167-167
1.playedBook124/18 13/11eq: -0.111
Player:
Opponent:		50.58% (G:13.70% B:0.87%)
49.42% (G:14.05% B:0.59%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.115...-0.107) - [100.0%]
2.Book124/16eq: -0.137 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		50.19% (G:12.54% B:0.72%)
49.81% (G:14.25% B:0.53%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.141...-0.134) - [0.0%]
3.Book113/5eq: -0.163 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:		49.03% (G:14.66% B:0.92%)
50.97% (G:14.17% B:0.70%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.167...-0.160) - [0.0%]
4.Book224/22 13/7eq: -0.214 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:		48.00% (G:12.86% B:0.51%)
52.00% (G:13.78% B:0.59%)
5.Book224/22 24/18eq: -0.218 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:		48.68% (G:11.80% B:0.52%)
51.32% (G:14.49% B:0.47%)
 
1 Generated by Steven Carey on 17-Jul-13 using eXtreme Gammon 2.10
23328 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69502489
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 21-May-11 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
 
 No double 
Pip=159-167
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 49.28% (G:13.51% B:0.51%) 49.23% (G:13.60% B:0.52%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 50.72% (G:12.89% B:0.64%) 50.77% (G:12.99% B:0.63%)
  Cubeless Equities -0.008 +0.035
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.121
     Double/Take:-0.075 (-0.196)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.879)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.4%
 
 43: 24/21 13/9 
Pip=159-167
1.playedXG Roller++24/21 13/9eq: -0.102
Player:
Opponent:		44.10% (G:10.25% B:0.34%)
55.90% (G:13.48% B:0.62%)
2.XG Roller++24/21 24/20eq: -0.117 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		44.19% (G:9.24% B:0.35%)
55.81% (G:13.52% B:0.49%)
3.XG Roller++24/20 13/10eq: -0.144 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		43.34% (G:10.19% B:0.37%)
56.66% (G:15.15% B:0.75%)
4.XG Roller++24/21 8/4eq: -0.159 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:		42.89% (G:10.17% B:0.35%)
57.11% (G:15.21% B:0.76%)
5.XG Roller++8/1* eq: -0.165 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:		42.03% (G:11.24% B:0.31%)
57.97% (G:15.17% B:0.83%)
 
 62: 18/16* 16/10 
Pip=159-160
1.xgXG Roller++24/18 13/11eq: +0.111
Player:
Opponent:		56.13% (G:10.65% B:0.34%)
43.87% (G:8.52% B:0.26%)
2.playedXG Roller++18/16* 16/10eq: +0.106 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		55.99% (G:14.79% B:0.68%)
44.01% (G:10.80% B:0.39%)
3.XG Roller++24/16* eq: +0.049 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		55.15% (G:13.79% B:0.70%)
44.85% (G:12.13% B:0.47%)
4.XG Roller++24/18 6/4* eq: +0.030 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:		54.08% (G:13.10% B:0.49%)
45.92% (G:11.09% B:0.37%)
5.4-ply24/18 11/9eq: -0.054 (-0.165)
Player:
Opponent:		51.58% (G:10.31% B:0.35%)
48.42% (G:9.84% B:0.31%)

Ενδιαφέρον ότι δύο τόσο διαφορετικές προσεγγίσεις είναι ουσιαστικά ισοδύναμες.
 
 66: Cannot Move 
Pip=151-176
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -0.574
Player:
Opponent:		33.99% (G:6.81% B:0.27%)
66.01% (G:23.43% B:1.39%)
 
 No double 
Pip=151-176
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 66.10% (G:23.82% B:1.43%) 66.08% (G:23.89% B:1.43%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.90% (G:6.66% B:0.24%) 33.92% (G:6.69% B:0.24%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.504 +0.993
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.604
     Double/Take:+0.469 (-0.135)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.396)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 20.3%
 
 31: 8/5 6/5 
Pip=151-176
1.playedXG Roller++8/5 6/5eq: +0.544
Player:
Opponent:		65.33% (G:20.56% B:1.22%)
34.67% (G:6.99% B:0.25%)
2.XG Roller++13/10 11/10eq: +0.386 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:		62.77% (G:16.47% B:0.83%)
37.23% (G:7.85% B:0.23%)
3.4-ply10/7 8/7eq: +0.348 (-0.196)
Player:
Opponent:		62.11% (G:15.99% B:0.70%)
37.89% (G:7.94% B:0.27%)
4.4-ply24/21 11/10eq: +0.336 (-0.208)
Player:
Opponent:		62.04% (G:15.48% B:0.76%)
37.96% (G:8.31% B:0.26%)
5.4-ply24/23 13/10eq: +0.319 (-0.225)
Player:
Opponent:		61.53% (G:15.69% B:0.75%)
38.47% (G:8.48% B:0.27%)
 
 53: Bar/22 6/1*  
Pip=147-176
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/22 6/1* eq: -0.672
Player:
Opponent:		31.97% (G:6.40% B:0.21%)
68.03% (G:24.60% B:1.86%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 13/8eq: -0.713 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		30.70% (G:5.94% B:0.23%)
69.30% (G:24.31% B:1.45%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/22 21/16eq: -0.777 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:		30.61% (G:5.78% B:0.24%)
69.39% (G:28.17% B:1.84%)
4.4-plyBar/22 8/3eq: -0.895 (-0.224)
Player:
Opponent:		29.88% (G:5.70% B:0.26%)
70.12% (G:31.84% B:2.96%)

Πολύ σωστό παίξιμο από τον Μίμη. Το 13/8 θα με άφηνε να επιτεθώ ανενόχλητος.
 
 No double 
Pip=148-168
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 68.07% (G:24.65% B:1.83%) 68.46% (G:23.60% B:1.68%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 31.93% (G:6.40% B:0.21%) 31.54% (G:6.27% B:0.19%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.560 +1.096
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.672
     Double/Take:+0.607 (-0.065)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.328)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.2%
 
 66: Cannot Move 
Pip=148-168
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: +0.227
Player:
Opponent:		59.48% (G:17.52% B:1.01%)
40.52% (G:11.14% B:0.41%)
 
 64: 24/18 22/18 
Pip=148-168
1.xgXG Roller++22/18 21/15* eq: -0.202
Player:
Opponent:		42.99% (G:10.12% B:0.33%)
57.01% (G:19.15% B:1.06%)
2.XG Roller++21/15* 15/11eq: -0.223 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		41.37% (G:10.98% B:0.35%)
58.63% (G:18.31% B:0.96%)
3.XG Roller++21/15* 13/9eq: -0.223 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		41.70% (G:12.01% B:0.45%)
58.30% (G:20.47% B:1.53%)
4.XG Roller++24/14* eq: -0.234 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		41.59% (G:10.41% B:0.36%)
58.41% (G:19.12% B:1.05%)
5.playedXG Roller++24/18 22/18eq: -0.450 (-0.248)
Player:
Opponent:		36.73% (G:6.88% B:0.19%)
63.27% (G:18.52% B:0.65%)

Αυτό είναι σοβαρό λάθος. Η πόρτα του bar είναι πάντα χρήσιμη, αλλά εδώ οι προτεραιότητες είναι διαφορετικές. Το χτύπημα του δεύτερου πουλίου είναι υποχρεωτικό, λόγω των γνωστών πλεονεκτημάτων (κέρδος στην κούρσα και αφαίρεσης και της άλλης μισής ζαριάς του αντιπάλου) ενισχύεται όμως από το γεγονός ότι το αντίπαλο board δεν είναι ιδιαίτερα δυνατό. Επίσης, κάτι που συχνά παραλείπεται, αφαιρεί τον χρήσιμο builder από την αντίπαλη επίθεση, ενώ αν γίνει η πόρτα στο bar, το πούλι αυτό μπορεί να επιτεθεί στο 4 ή να αποτελέσει τη βάση για πόρτα στο 10 (όπως και έγινε στην παρτίδα).
Γενικά, εδώ ακολουθείται η αρχή ότι τα χτυπήματα στην αρχή της παρτίδας είναι πιο ελκυστικά, επειδή συνήθως τα στρατόπεδα είναι αδύναμε και συνεπώς το ρίσκο αυτού που χτυπάει είναι μικρότερο.
 
 43: Bar/21 13/10 
Pip=148-158
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/21 13/10eq: +0.394
Player:
Opponent:		62.77% (G:14.14% B:0.51%)
37.23% (G:6.33% B:0.16%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 10/6eq: +0.255 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:		59.45% (G:13.42% B:0.41%)
40.55% (G:7.59% B:0.18%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/21 11/8eq: +0.236 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:		58.31% (G:15.36% B:0.55%)
41.69% (G:8.19% B:0.20%)
4.4-plyBar/22 8/4* eq: +0.148 (-0.246)
Player:
Opponent:		56.67% (G:17.59% B:0.70%)
43.33% (G:11.22% B:0.59%)
5.4-plyBar/18eq: +0.082 (-0.312)
Player:
Opponent:		55.34% (G:14.13% B:0.67%)
44.66% (G:10.64% B:0.39%)
 
 54: 8/4* 6/1 
Pip=141-158
1.xgXG Roller++18/14* 6/1eq: -0.384
Player:
Opponent:		38.24% (G:8.43% B:0.22%)
61.76% (G:20.79% B:0.96%)
2.playedXG Roller++8/4* 6/1eq: -0.492 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:		34.88% (G:6.82% B:0.10%)
65.12% (G:16.78% B:0.59%)
3.4-ply18/13 18/14* eq: -0.527 (-0.144)
Player:
Opponent:		35.55% (G:6.82% B:0.22%)
64.45% (G:24.72% B:0.96%)
4.4-ply13/8 6/2eq: -0.564 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent:		32.89% (G:5.59% B:0.13%)
67.11% (G:17.85% B:0.55%)
5.4-ply13/4* eq: -0.584 (-0.200)
Player:
Opponent:		33.85% (G:6.55% B:0.21%)
66.15% (G:23.72% B:1.04%)

Ο Μίμης εδώ θα ήθελε με το 5 να βγάλει το πούλι από την επικίνδυνη θέση 21, αυτό όμως δεν είναι δυνατό, λόγω του blot στον άσσο και του ότι δεν υπάρχει αξιοπρεπές τεσσάρι.
Έτσι το 5 είναι σαφές ότι πρέπει να παιχτεί στον άσσο.
Το χτύπημα στο 4 (8/4*) αφήνει έξι πολύ άσχημα διπλά χτυπήματα με 22,42, 44 και 64, ενώ το χτύπημα στο outfield (18/14*) αφήνει μόνο τρεις τέτοιες ζαριές (22, 33, 44). Αυτό, σε συνδυασμό με το μεγάλο κέρδος στην κούρσα που προσφέρει το 18/14*, καθιστά το 8/4* σημαντικό λάθος.
 
 44: Bar/21* 13/9 8/4*(2)  
Pip=145-149
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/21* 13/9 8/4*(2) eq: +1.054
Player:
Opponent:		76.56% (G:39.80% B:1.15%)
23.44% (G:3.66% B:0.11%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/21* 10/6 8/4*(2) eq: +1.020 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		75.06% (G:39.73% B:1.10%)
24.94% (G:4.13% B:0.14%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/21* 8/4*(2) 6/2eq: +0.928 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:		73.38% (G:37.56% B:1.06%)
26.62% (G:4.83% B:0.14%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/21* 13/9(3)eq: +0.890 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:		74.01% (G:25.48% B:1.02%)
25.99% (G:4.14% B:0.10%)
5.4-plyBar/21* 8/4* 6/2(2)eq: +0.826 (-0.229)
Player:
Opponent:		71.58% (G:36.95% B:1.01%)
28.42% (G:6.17% B:0.24%)
 
 62: Bar/23 
Pip=129-174
1.played3-plyBar/23eq: -1.027
Player:
Opponent:		23.74% (G:4.11% B:0.16%)
76.26% (G:43.38% B:1.11%)
 
 No double 
Pip=129-172
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 77.68% (G:38.72% B:1.23%) 77.25% (G:44.67% B:1.31%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 22.32% (G:3.40% B:0.08%) 22.75% (G:3.99% B:0.10%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.915 +1.951
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.095
     Double/Take:+1.593 (+0.498)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.095)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 16.1%

Σκέφτηκα για λίγο, αλλά το too good είναι ξακάθαρο. Το αντίπαλο στρατόπεδο, εκτός από πιο αδύναμο είναι και ασυνεχές, ενώ είμαι τόσο μπροστά στην κούρσα, που αντέχω τούλάχιστον ενά χτύπημα.
Φυσικά τον μεγαλύτερο ρόλο παίζει το χτυπημένο του πούλι και το επίσης ευάλωτο στο 2 μου.
 
 32: 21/18 11/9 
Pip=129-172
1.XG Roller++11/8 10/8eq: +1.003
Player:
Opponent:		75.23% (G:34.73% B:1.40%)
24.77% (G:4.09% B:0.13%)
2.playedXG Roller++21/18 11/9eq: +0.999 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		75.86% (G:26.87% B:0.98%)
24.14% (G:3.48% B:0.10%)
3.XG Roller++13/11 13/10eq: +0.995 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		75.44% (G:30.52% B:1.07%)
24.56% (G:3.51% B:0.09%)
4.XG Roller++9/4eq: +0.961 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		73.42% (G:33.91% B:1.31%)
26.58% (G:4.52% B:0.14%)
5.XG Roller++13/10 11/9eq: +0.943 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		74.01% (G:30.31% B:1.25%)
25.99% (G:4.05% B:0.11%)
 
 42: Bar/23 13/9 
Pip=124-172
1.XG Roller++Bar/23 6/2eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		22.78% (G:2.59% B:0.06%)
77.22% (G:19.24% B:0.93%)
2.playedXG Roller++Bar/23 13/9eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		24.27% (G:3.11% B:0.06%)
75.73% (G:22.53% B:1.19%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/23 8/4eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		23.83% (G:2.89% B:0.06%)
76.17% (G:22.87% B:1.27%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/23 18/14eq: -1.066 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:		20.70% (G:2.31% B:0.06%)
79.30% (G:32.50% B:1.91%)
 
 Double/Pass 
Pip=124-166
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 75.61% (G:22.38% B:1.18%) 75.85% (G:23.19% B:1.26%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 24.39% (G:3.13% B:0.06%) 24.15% (G:3.10% B:0.04%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.715 +1.458
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.981 (-0.019)
     Double/Take:+1.119 (+0.119)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Το take θα ήταν σημαντικό λάθος εδώ. Η θέση του αμυνόμενου είναι εντελώς ξεχαρβαλωμένη και ο κίνδυνος του διπλού δεν έχει αποσoβηθεί.
 
 Wins 1pt. 

Game Summary:

mman  Category Iskandar 
World Champ. (-0.0008) Total Error Beginner (-0.0509)
World Champ. (-0.0014) Checker Play Distracted (-0.0713)
World Champ. (+0.0000) Cube Play World Champ. (+0.0000)
0.42 Performance Rating 25.47
0 Move Errors 2(2)
-0.008(-0.05%) Equity lost (cost) -0.357(-2.13%)
     
0 Double Errors 0
+0.000 Equity lost (cost) +0.000
     
0 Take Errors 0
+0.000 Equity lost (cost) +0.000
     
0 Total Error 2(2)
-0.008(-0.05%) Equity lost (cost) -0.357(-2.13%)
     
2 Jokers 1
+0.784(+4.68%) Luck -0.784(-4.68%)

 Game 6

13 point match, Score is mman: 9, Iskandar: 5

 
 31: 8/5 6/5 
Pip=167-167
1.playedBook18/5 6/5eq: +0.380
Player:
Opponent:		55.30% (G:16.64% B:0.69%)
44.70% (G:11.54% B:0.53%)
2.Book113/10 6/5eq: +0.115 (-0.265)
Player:
Opponent:		49.76% (G:13.47% B:0.52%)
50.24% (G:14.02% B:0.89%)
3.Book124/23 13/10eq: +0.115 (-0.265)
Player:
Opponent:		49.60% (G:13.50% B:0.52%)
50.40% (G:13.35% B:0.58%)
4.Book113/9eq: +0.096 (-0.284)
Player:
Opponent:		48.84% (G:13.92% B:0.58%)
51.16% (G:13.46% B:0.66%)
5.Book124/20eq: +0.067 (-0.314)
Player:
Opponent:		48.96% (G:12.14% B:0.49%)
51.04% (G:13.14% B:0.48%)
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 21-May-11 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
 
 32: 24/21 13/11 
Pip=167-163
1.xgXG Roller++24/22 13/10eq: -0.506
Player:
Opponent:		41.93% (G:10.37% B:0.48%)
58.07% (G:18.28% B:0.84%)
2.XG Roller++24/22 24/21eq: -0.514 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		41.78% (G:9.77% B:0.48%)
58.22% (G:18.83% B:0.68%)
3.playedXG Roller++24/21 13/11eq: -0.514 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		41.85% (G:10.25% B:0.49%)
58.15% (G:18.30% B:0.88%)
4.XG Roller++13/11 13/10eq: -0.574 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:		40.68% (G:10.98% B:0.47%)
59.32% (G:18.85% B:1.19%)
5.XG Roller++13/8eq: -0.579 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:		40.67% (G:10.27% B:0.46%)
59.33% (G:19.01% B:0.88%)
 
 No double 
Pip=162-163
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 57.93% (G:18.20% B:0.87%) 57.99% (G:18.22% B:0.85%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 42.07% (G:10.44% B:0.49%) 42.01% (G:10.31% B:0.47%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.219 +0.494
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.506
     Double/Take:+0.442 (-0.065)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.494)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.4%
 
 65: 24/13 
Pip=162-163
1.XG Roller++24/18 13/8eq: +0.344
Player:
Opponent:		55.58% (G:13.99% B:0.63%)
44.42% (G:10.59% B:0.37%)
2.playedXG Roller++24/13eq: +0.343 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		56.33% (G:12.08% B:0.41%)
43.67% (G:9.03% B:0.27%)
3.XG Roller++13/8 13/7eq: +0.306 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		53.18% (G:16.44% B:0.68%)
46.82% (G:11.33% B:0.58%)
4.XG Roller++24/18 6/1* eq: +0.239 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:		52.67% (G:13.93% B:0.49%)
47.33% (G:12.16% B:0.56%)
5.XG Roller++13/7 6/1* eq: +0.222 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent:		51.01% (G:16.53% B:0.54%)
48.99% (G:13.08% B:0.79%)
 
 33: 24/21 11/5 8/5 
Pip=162-152
1.playedXG Roller++24/21 11/5 8/5eq: +0.012
Player:
Opponent:		50.45% (G:11.06% B:0.21%)
49.55% (G:6.23% B:0.20%)
2.XG Roller++24/18 21/18 13/10eq: -0.047 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		49.94% (G:8.55% B:0.17%)
50.06% (G:7.14% B:0.22%)
3.XG Roller++24/21 13/10 6/3(2)eq: -0.050 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		49.15% (G:11.33% B:0.27%)
50.85% (G:7.27% B:0.25%)
4.XG Roller++24/21 8/5(3)eq: -0.069 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:		48.29% (G:10.95% B:0.19%)
51.71% (G:6.87% B:0.23%)
5.XG Roller++24/18 21/18 11/8eq: -0.074 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:		49.80% (G:8.19% B:0.17%)
50.20% (G:8.31% B:0.24%)
 
 41: 13/8 
Pip=150-152
1.playedXG Roller++13/8eq: -0.086
Player:
Opponent:		47.54% (G:6.13% B:0.19%)
52.46% (G:12.00% B:0.22%)
2.XG Roller++13/9 6/5eq: -0.147 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		45.24% (G:8.07% B:0.28%)
54.76% (G:14.18% B:0.41%)
3.XG Roller++24/23 13/9eq: -0.206 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:		43.92% (G:7.94% B:0.27%)
56.08% (G:15.47% B:0.39%)
4.XG Roller++6/5 6/2eq: -0.218 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:		44.20% (G:6.54% B:0.21%)
55.80% (G:15.44% B:0.33%)
5.XG Roller++24/23 6/2eq: -0.232 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:		44.16% (G:6.48% B:0.20%)
55.84% (G:16.47% B:0.32%)
 
 62: 13/5 
Pip=150-147
1.played4-ply13/5eq: +0.037
Player:
Opponent:		50.86% (G:11.53% B:0.17%)
49.14% (G:5.83% B:0.18%)
2.4-ply13/11 13/7eq: -0.185 (-0.222)
Player:
Opponent:		46.08% (G:11.17% B:0.21%)
53.92% (G:8.82% B:0.28%)
3.4-ply21/13eq: -0.201 (-0.238)
Player:
Opponent:		48.01% (G:9.50% B:0.33%)
51.99% (G:12.71% B:0.33%)
4.3-ply13/7 6/4eq: -0.315 (-0.353)
Player:
Opponent:		42.82% (G:10.00% B:0.26%)
57.18% (G:9.72% B:0.29%)
5.3-ply8/6 8/2eq: -0.334 (-0.371)
Player:
Opponent:		41.93% (G:7.97% B:0.15%)
58.07% (G:8.28% B:0.24%)
 
 53: 13/5 
Pip=142-147
1.xgXG Roller++24/16eq: -0.048
Player:
Opponent:		49.01% (G:4.46% B:0.14%)
50.99% (G:9.70% B:0.15%)
2.XG Roller++8/3 6/3eq: -0.085 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		47.55% (G:6.77% B:0.23%)
52.45% (G:12.99% B:0.22%)
3.playedXG Roller++13/5eq: -0.111 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:		47.00% (G:6.14% B:0.19%)
53.00% (G:12.62% B:0.18%)
4.XG Roller++13/8 6/3eq: -0.127 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:		46.57% (G:6.61% B:0.21%)
53.43% (G:13.96% B:0.21%)
5.XG Roller++24/21 13/8eq: -0.157 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:		46.20% (G:5.49% B:0.17%)
53.80% (G:13.42% B:0.17%)

Το τρέξιμο εδώ είναι θεματικό, καθώς υπερπηδά τον κύριο όγκο των αντίπαλων builder και τρέχει ενώ είναι μπροστά στην κούρσα. Τα άλλα παιξίματα αποδυναμώνονται πολύ από την αντίπαλη anchor στο 21.
 
 65: 13/7 6/1*  
Pip=142-139
1.playedXG Roller++13/7 6/1* eq: -0.146
Player:
Opponent:		47.01% (G:13.26% B:0.18%)
52.99% (G:9.39% B:0.34%)
2.XG Roller++13/2eq: -0.158 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		46.49% (G:10.90% B:0.17%)
53.51% (G:8.42% B:0.29%)
3.XG Roller++21/10eq: -0.269 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent:		46.22% (G:11.13% B:0.44%)
53.78% (G:14.53% B:0.38%)
4.XG Roller++21/16 21/15eq: -0.270 (-0.124)
Player:
Opponent:		46.36% (G:7.63% B:0.23%)
53.64% (G:14.21% B:0.39%)
5.XG Roller++21/15 6/1* eq: -0.302 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent:		45.24% (G:11.30% B:0.24%)
54.76% (G:16.37% B:0.74%)
 
 61: Bar/24* 24/18*  
Pip=131-140
1.played3-plyBar/24* 24/18* eq: +0.915
Player:
Opponent:		68.01% (G:19.13% B:0.56%)
31.99% (G:5.82% B:0.17%)
2.3-plyBar/24* 13/7eq: +0.364 (-0.551)
Player:
Opponent:		55.85% (G:15.25% B:0.63%)
44.15% (G:11.39% B:0.40%)
3.2-plyBar/24* 8/2eq: +0.195 (-0.720)
Player:
Opponent:		52.06% (G:14.01% B:0.46%)
47.94% (G:14.25% B:0.52%)
 
 52: Bar/23 
Pip=173-133
1.played3-plyBar/23eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		31.16% (G:5.34% B:0.20%)
68.84% (G:21.17% B:0.61%)
 
 Double/Take 
Pip=171-133
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 68.46% (G:21.63% B:0.65%) 68.27% (G:22.36% B:0.65%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 31.54% (G:5.62% B:0.20%) 31.73% (G:5.68% B:0.18%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.531 +1.162
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.924 (-0.076)
played Double/Take:+1.082 (+0.082)
xg Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Δεν ήμουν καθόλου σίγουροα γι' αυτό εδώ.
Σκέφτηκα ότι ο Μίμης δεν έχει σώσει ακόμη τον runner του, ενώ μπορεί να φτιάξω δεύτερη anchor.
Όμως ένας συνδυασμός παραγόντων (τους οποίους, προφανώς, υποτίμησα) δείχνει πάσο: το ότι είμαι χτυπημένος, το ότι είμαι πολύ πίσω στην κούρσα, τα δέκα αντίπαλα πούλια στη ζώνη, ιδανικά τοποθετημένα για επίθεση, ο γενικότερος κίνδυνος για gammon και η πρωτοπορία μου στο σκορ.
(Επίσης, ακόμα κι αν ήταν οριακό -που δεν είναι- θα μπορούσα να πάρω υπόψη μου τη διαφορά δυναμικότητας.)
 
 33: 13/10 8/2* 5/2 
Pip=171-133
1.xgXG Roller++18/15 8/2* 5/2eq: +0.673
Player:
Opponent:		70.91% (G:27.17% B:0.64%)
29.09% (G:4.92% B:0.19%)
2.playedXG Roller++13/10 8/2* 5/2eq: +0.634 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		69.06% (G:27.55% B:0.70%)
30.94% (G:5.81% B:0.25%)
3.XG Roller++13/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.598 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:		69.15% (G:24.16% B:0.90%)
30.85% (G:5.14% B:0.20%)
4.XG Roller++8/2*(2) eq: +0.597 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:		66.74% (G:29.00% B:0.73%)
33.26% (G:6.59% B:0.27%)
5.XG Roller++8/2* 6/3(2)eq: +0.580 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:		67.58% (G:25.97% B:0.74%)
32.42% (G:6.84% B:0.26%)

Το 13/10 δημιουργεί ένα νέο blot χωρίς να προσθέτει builder για την πόρτα 3. Το bar δεν είναι ο επείγον στόχος σ' αυτη τη θέση. Αν δεν μπορούμε να επιτεθούμε, τρέχουμε.
 
 31: Bar/24 Bar/22 
Pip=173-121
1.played3-plyBar/24 Bar/22eq: -0.508
Player:
Opponent:		34.52% (G:6.67% B:0.27%)
65.48% (G:24.13% B:0.71%)
 
 43: 18/14 13/10 
Pip=169-121
1.playedXG Roller++18/14 13/10eq: +0.442
Player:
Opponent:		65.26% (G:19.09% B:0.45%)
34.74% (G:6.03% B:0.21%)
2.XG Roller++10/3* eq: +0.401 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		60.48% (G:24.92% B:1.18%)
39.52% (G:9.87% B:0.40%)
3.XG Roller++18/14 6/3* eq: +0.386 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:		60.89% (G:22.82% B:1.15%)
39.11% (G:9.93% B:0.47%)
4.XG Roller++18/15 10/6eq: +0.383 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		61.92% (G:20.53% B:0.74%)
38.08% (G:7.65% B:0.29%)
5.XG Roller++18/11eq: +0.371 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:		61.52% (G:20.35% B:0.82%)
38.48% (G:8.52% B:0.32%)

Ομολογώ ότι θα σκεφτόμουν σοβαρά το χτύπημα στο 3, αλλά αν ο αντίπαλος χτυπήσει κι αυτός, η ζημιά είναι σημαντική, λόγω του blot στο bar και του καθόλου άσχημου απέναντι board.
 
 65: 22/11*  
Pip=169-114
1.played3-ply22/11* eq: -0.238
Player:
Opponent:		41.38% (G:9.93% B:0.30%)
58.62% (G:15.27% B:0.48%)
2.3-ply24/13eq: -0.569 (-0.331)
Player:
Opponent:		27.41% (G:3.79% B:0.12%)
72.59% (G:15.34% B:0.23%)
3.3-ply13/8 13/7eq: -0.635 (-0.397)
Player:
Opponent:		29.19% (G:4.57% B:0.18%)
70.81% (G:24.02% B:0.72%)
4.3-ply22/16 8/3eq: -0.693 (-0.455)
Player:
Opponent:		29.54% (G:4.78% B:0.21%)
70.46% (G:29.33% B:1.08%)
5.3-ply8/3 8/2eq: -0.714 (-0.476)
Player:
Opponent:		28.98% (G:5.29% B:0.21%)
71.02% (G:30.01% B:1.13%)
 
 43: Bar/18 
Pip=158-125
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/18eq: +0.272
Player:
Opponent:		59.83% (G:15.57% B:0.53%)
40.17% (G:9.41% B:0.36%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 6/2eq: +0.207 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:		56.63% (G:16.85% B:0.55%)
43.37% (G:11.43% B:0.43%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/21 6/3eq: +0.172 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:		56.18% (G:14.88% B:0.54%)
43.82% (G:12.44% B:0.46%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/21 13/10eq: +0.125 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:		53.90% (G:14.90% B:0.55%)
46.10% (G:11.41% B:0.37%)
5.XG Roller++Bar/22 10/6eq: +0.116 (-0.156)
Player:
Opponent:		51.79% (G:18.38% B:0.93%)
48.21% (G:13.57% B:0.57%)
 
 42: 24/22 11/7*  
Pip=158-118
1.playedXG Roller++24/22 11/7* eq: -0.231
Player:
Opponent:		42.15% (G:10.74% B:0.46%)
57.85% (G:16.75% B:0.53%)
2.XG Roller++11/7* 7/5eq: -0.264 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		39.29% (G:9.81% B:0.31%)
60.71% (G:13.84% B:0.40%)
3.XG Roller++11/7* 6/4eq: -0.311 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:		42.66% (G:10.59% B:0.43%)
57.34% (G:23.91% B:1.05%)
4.XG Roller++13/7* eq: -0.333 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:		40.74% (G:9.92% B:0.43%)
59.26% (G:21.82% B:1.13%)
5.XG Roller++11/7* 5/3eq: -0.361 (-0.130)
Player:
Opponent:		39.98% (G:9.24% B:0.35%)
60.02% (G:22.76% B:0.98%)

Ο επιπλεόν builder στο bar είναι σημαντικός. Επίσης το 24/22 προετοιμάζει είτε δραπέτευση είτε τη δεύτερη καλή anchor σε περίπτωση που χτυπηθεί το πούλι στο bar.
 
 63: Bar/16 
Pip=152-125
1.played3-plyBar/16eq: +0.355
Player:
Opponent:		64.85% (G:12.50% B:0.38%)
35.15% (G:6.59% B:0.24%)
2.3-plyBar/22 8/2eq: -0.103 (-0.458)
Player:
Opponent:		45.00% (G:15.08% B:0.55%)
55.00% (G:17.97% B:0.74%)
3.3-plyBar/22 13/7eq: -0.150 (-0.505)
Player:
Opponent:		43.49% (G:14.40% B:0.82%)
56.51% (G:19.57% B:1.11%)
 
 32: 7/4 6/4 
Pip=152-116
1.playedXG Roller++7/4 6/4eq: -0.402
Player:
Opponent:		31.87% (G:5.18% B:0.14%)
68.13% (G:10.23% B:0.22%)
2.XG Roller++6/3 5/3eq: -0.424 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		31.44% (G:4.95% B:0.15%)
68.56% (G:11.18% B:0.26%)
3.XG Roller++6/4 6/3eq: -0.454 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:		30.89% (G:4.87% B:0.15%)
69.11% (G:12.48% B:0.33%)
4.XG Roller++7/4 5/3eq: -0.468 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:		30.06% (G:4.60% B:0.11%)
69.94% (G:12.07% B:0.27%)
5.XG Roller++6/4 5/2eq: -0.475 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:		30.08% (G:4.92% B:0.13%)
69.92% (G:12.76% B:0.37%)
 
 21: 16/13 
Pip=147-116
1.played4-ply16/13eq: +0.456
Player:
Opponent:		71.29% (G:8.17% B:0.15%)
28.71% (G:3.39% B:0.09%)
2.4-ply16/14 6/5eq: +0.237 (-0.219)
Player:
Opponent:		62.13% (G:8.22% B:0.22%)
37.87% (G:8.14% B:0.23%)
3.4-ply6/3* eq: +0.178 (-0.278)
Player:
Opponent:		58.87% (G:10.32% B:0.27%)
41.13% (G:11.77% B:0.38%)
4.3-ply16/14 2/1eq: +0.128 (-0.327)
Player:
Opponent:		57.33% (G:9.02% B:0.19%)
42.67% (G:10.86% B:0.27%)
5.3-ply13/10eq: -0.013 (-0.469)
Player:
Opponent:		51.00% (G:9.74% B:0.34%)
49.00% (G:13.58% B:0.45%)
 
 65: 22/11 
Pip=147-113
1.playedXG Roller++22/11eq: -0.427
Player:
Opponent:		27.62% (G:2.41% B:0.05%)
72.38% (G:3.63% B:0.07%)
2.XG Roller++13/8 13/7eq: -0.455 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:		28.49% (G:3.66% B:0.10%)
71.51% (G:7.92% B:0.16%)
3.XG Roller++22/16 8/3eq: -0.461 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		28.69% (G:4.07% B:0.11%)
71.31% (G:8.65% B:0.39%)
4.XG Roller++8/3 8/2eq: -0.464 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		29.01% (G:4.10% B:0.09%)
70.99% (G:9.75% B:0.22%)
5.XG Roller++13/7 8/3eq: -0.513 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:		29.42% (G:5.15% B:0.18%)
70.58% (G:14.89% B:0.46%)
 
 53: 13/8 6/3 
Pip=136-113
1.playedXG Roller++13/8 6/3eq: +0.406
Player:
Opponent:		71.32% (G:3.93% B:0.12%)
28.68% (G:2.96% B:0.06%)
2.XG Roller++13/5eq: +0.401 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		70.99% (G:4.13% B:0.12%)
29.01% (G:3.08% B:0.07%)
3.XG Roller++13/10 6/1eq: +0.363 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		69.57% (G:3.73% B:0.10%)
30.43% (G:3.37% B:0.06%)
4.XG Roller++6/3 6/1eq: +0.353 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:		69.15% (G:3.68% B:0.10%)
30.85% (G:3.38% B:0.06%)
5.XG Roller++8/5 8/3eq: +0.326 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:		67.58% (G:4.28% B:0.12%)
32.42% (G:3.43% B:0.06%)
 
 62: 11/3 
Pip=136-105
1.playedXG Roller++11/3eq: -0.417
Player:
Opponent:		28.19% (G:2.94% B:0.07%)
71.81% (G:4.03% B:0.10%)
2.XG Roller++11/9 8/2eq: -0.435 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		27.90% (G:3.34% B:0.10%)
72.10% (G:5.05% B:0.26%)
3.XG Roller++8/2 5/3eq: -0.439 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		28.01% (G:3.32% B:0.08%)
71.99% (G:5.35% B:0.41%)
4.XG Roller++8/2 6/4eq: -0.439 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		27.58% (G:3.07% B:0.08%)
72.42% (G:4.72% B:0.25%)
5.XG Roller++11/5 6/4eq: -0.440 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		27.29% (G:2.53% B:0.05%)
72.71% (G:4.17% B:0.10%)
 
 31: 8/5 6/5 
Pip=128-105
1.xgXG Roller++8/5 2/1eq: +0.351
Player:
Opponent:		69.14% (G:3.47% B:0.08%)
30.86% (G:3.20% B:0.08%)
2.XG Roller++6/3 2/1eq: +0.336 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		68.56% (G:3.32% B:0.09%)
31.44% (G:3.44% B:0.07%)
3.playedXG Roller++8/5 6/5eq: +0.322 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		67.72% (G:3.78% B:0.11%)
32.28% (G:3.81% B:0.09%)
4.XG Roller++8/5 3/2eq: +0.319 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		67.85% (G:3.18% B:0.07%)
32.15% (G:3.50% B:0.07%)
5.XG Roller++6/2eq: +0.302 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		67.24% (G:3.05% B:0.08%)
32.76% (G:3.79% B:0.06%)
 
 33: 8/2 6/3 5/2 
Pip=128-101
1.playedXG Roller++8/2 6/3 5/2eq: -0.265
Player:
Opponent:		34.16% (G:3.91% B:0.10%)
65.84% (G:2.70% B:0.05%)
2.XG Roller++21/18(2) 6/3 5/2eq: -0.312 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		31.97% (G:2.17% B:0.04%)
68.03% (G:1.90% B:0.04%)
3.XG Roller++8/2(2)eq: -0.314 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		32.58% (G:3.71% B:0.07%)
67.42% (G:3.81% B:0.13%)
4.XG Roller++21/18(2) 8/2eq: -0.317 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:		31.82% (G:2.20% B:0.05%)
68.18% (G:1.94% B:0.06%)
5.XG Roller++21/18(2) 8/5 6/3eq: -0.317 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:		31.65% (G:2.05% B:0.05%)
68.35% (G:1.72% B:0.04%)

Ένα συχνό λάθος που κάνουν αρκετοί παίκτες. Αν έχουμε την 20 ή την 21 δεν ανεβαίνουμε στο bar, όταν είμαστε πίσω στην κούρσα. Ο έλεγχος του αντιπάλου είναι πάντα καλύτερος, ακόμα και αν δεν βλέπουμε άμεσα την midpoint του. Εδώ υπάρχει επίσης η πόρτα 10 η οποία ενισχύει αυτή την άποψη.
 
 53: 13/10 13/8 
Pip=116-101
1.played4-ply13/10 13/8eq: +0.441
Player:
Opponent:		73.84% (G:1.67% B:0.02%)
26.16% (G:1.00% B:0.01%)
2.4-ply8/5 8/3eq: +0.197 (-0.245)
Player:
Opponent:		62.67% (G:2.65% B:0.05%)
37.33% (G:3.52% B:0.04%)
3.3-ply6/3 6/1eq: +0.106 (-0.336)
Player:
Opponent:		58.67% (G:2.94% B:0.03%)
41.33% (G:5.89% B:0.08%)
4.3-ply10/7 10/5eq: -0.016 (-0.458)
Player:
Opponent:		53.79% (G:3.36% B:0.11%)
46.21% (G:9.94% B:0.18%)
5.3-ply8/3 5/2eq: -0.119 (-0.561)
Player:
Opponent:		49.02% (G:4.16% B:0.09%)
50.98% (G:12.09% B:0.18%)
 
 64: 13/9 13/7 
Pip=116-93
1.playedXG Roller++13/9 13/7eq: -0.439
Player:
Opponent:		26.46% (G:1.12% B:0.02%)
73.54% (G:1.77% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++13/7 8/4eq: -0.439 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:		26.42% (G:1.13% B:0.02%)
73.58% (G:1.78% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller++13/3eq: -0.447 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		26.09% (G:1.13% B:0.01%)
73.91% (G:1.89% B:0.02%)
4.XG Roller++13/7 5/1eq: -0.448 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		26.14% (G:1.12% B:0.02%)
73.86% (G:1.99% B:0.03%)
5.XG Roller++13/9 8/2eq: -0.448 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		26.06% (G:1.11% B:0.01%)
73.94% (G:1.89% B:0.02%)
 
 64: 10/6 8/2 
Pip=106-93
1.playedXG Roller++10/6 8/2eq: +0.424
Player:
Opponent:		72.71% (G:1.72% B:0.02%)
27.29% (G:1.65% B:0.04%)
2.XG Roller++8/2 5/1eq: +0.403 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		71.85% (G:1.83% B:0.02%)
28.15% (G:1.73% B:0.04%)
3.3-ply8/2 6/2eq: -0.201 (-0.625)