The last two rolls by both sides have turned this game from a "No Double" to a "Too Good to Double" and Nikos has correctly understood that on the board.

XG prefers the hit from the very strong 4pt. Black has more than enough men on the zone and attacking on the two point is quite attractive. In addition the not-turned cube gives some more flexibility for black to play aggressively and possibly "cash" if things begin to go wrong.

Nikos tried for a play that increases the chances that he will attack on Charis' 2 point blot, however he also gave some pretty good entering rolls for white, with 21 being a big joker. One more point to consider is that 8 and 7 points would be nice to make, in case white enters with a two, and 9/6 does not server that goal.

Preparing yourself against 66 is the primary goal in such positions. Next goal should be trying to bear in a checker on relatively high point (e.g. 4pt in here) and not bury checkers deep in.

Nikos correctly chose the safest play, as gammon rate is really high anyway.

At such positions (really high gammon rates) we can see that the play that gives more gammons is the play that gives more wins (in contrast to the 4 checkers off play). The reason is that the most probable way white will save the gammon is the scenario where he manages to a checker.

Black has made some improvement especially in the race and his gammon chances. On the other hand white has also a very strong position and the game has a lot of play. The score also, although not advanced, indicates a slightly more conservative use of the cube, especially in gammonish positions. Black can wait a roll and still have an efficient cube after most of his good rolls.

XG prefers bringing two checkers down to making an inside point which would most players choose. By brining two checkers down not only does black make a 4 prime with great chances to extend it to a 5 prime (more single wins) but he also enhances his offensive power so as to attack in case white enters in any of the 2,3 and 4 points (note that white has two checkers on the bar). If Blacks makes his 3 point he does strip his 6 points and reduces his chances to attack or make the 4 point next turn. As a bonus two down work better against white's next 44s.

White has become a favorite but not a big one. He has some threats, better offensive structure and better defense. On the other hand he is way behind the race and outboarded. The redouble here is a blunder.

In similar positions (ahead in the race and primed) it is almost always correct to run from behind even if you leave too many hitting numbers. The risk of being primed is just bigger than the risk of being hit. Additionally if white hits with a 4 you have many return hits. If white hits with a 3 (and breaks his 13pt) you not only have many return hits but you also have the chance to make a four prime in from of white's three checkers.

Now black has serious problems with his last checker, but advancing it to the 23 point does not gain much (it only gains after white's 54). XG prefers 13/8 despite the direct shot it gives to white which would more or less win him the game with significant gammon chances.

All splitting plays are very close with probably best the 24/21 24/20 which advances both checkers at a time that white has a checker on his 14 (11 for black) to clear.

Black is behind in the race and staying back to increase hitting chances takes priority here.

Black has the option to advance his anchor from 20pt to 18pt. If white's two checkers on the 11pt were on the 12pt then advancing would be clear so as to better focus on the 12pt checkers. Here, however both staying back (7/5 7/3 6/4) and advancing to 18pt plays seem quite reasonable.

After 22 white is only 2 pips ahead but black will be on roll (subtract 4 pips from black) which means that white is actually 2 pips behind in the race. If you also consider that whites last point is the 13 and black's is the 18th, white would do much better in a holding game than black. Staying back (as opposed to 13/11 (4)) is clear.

White can run with 13/9 13/8 and have an "actual" lead of 1pip (and a bit smaller wastage for the bear off phase due to a bit better checker distribution) or stay back to take advantage of the favourable 13 pt against 18 pt holding game. XG prefers staying back and the "cut off" on pips difference seems to be 3pip of  "actual" lead (just place one checker from white's 8 pt to white's 6 pt) where staying back or playing 13/9 13/8 seems to be equal.

13/11 6/5 does many good things. First it unstacks black's 13pt and 5pt. Second it slots its 5pt with very good chances to make it next turn. Finally it does both while reducing risk by duplicating white's 4s! Note that although black has only one checker back he is not ahead in the race.

Both sides wait for the other side to give a shot. Black is better doing that by preserving his chances to complete a full inner board. 6/1 4/2 is the best play by far.

Black changes his plans with this excellent roll. Now he does not need to hit a checker, and running gives him more wins than any other play.

Black is only 2 pips ahead so it is the double action that we need to examine. In normal races 2 pips lead and the roll would not be enough to double. Here, however, white has to be penalized around 4 pips (compared to black), due to the wastage of the checkers on the 1 and 2 pts. This makes it 6 pips difference in total and the roll which makes it a clear double. Take of course is still correct.

Very interesting bear off cube action here. Take point ATS (at this score) for black should be not much different than money game.

All racing formulas available in XG (Thorp, Keith and Trice's excluding the "Pip Count" formula which is not applicable in bear off positions) give a clear take and it is the double that should be considered. Although white seems to be ahead by 9 pips he should be penalized at least 7 more pips compared to black for the additional 3 checkers in his 2 point and the 2 checkers in his 1pt. This makes the difference around 2 pips which combined with the roll (4 pips) give a difference of 6 pips.  It is probably enough to redouble but not enough to pass. Nikos made a blunder to pass this cube but we should also consider that this was a clocked match and time for those calculations is not plenty.

Charis has a very strong position and although this roll gives him a significant racing lead he should not play passively. 13/3(2) is a big improvement for white and will probably force Nikos to play passively next roll.

Nikos did not play the passive running play of 23/16 but prefered to slot with 6/4. Although the slot utilizes better the checkers on his overloaded 6 pt the resulting risk here is quite high.

Charis here knows that he has a very poweful position and turns the cube. Nikos correctly passes but had he played the safest 23/16 last turn he would have a take.

Nikos is not ahead in the race, but does not have anything constructive to play. Running seems to be the only way.

Great roll for Nikos, he may have a cube next turn.

Nikos missed a cube here. He is a bit ahead in the race, has a good structure and some gammon chances. Market loosers are enough to turn the cube especially when trailing at the score.

Again Nikos misses a big cube.

This is a very instructive position. Nikos chose to hit, going for the gammon. It is a huge blunder and one of the reason is the cube position. Black has not doubled yet and if he plays 22/11 and does not get hit he will have a very efficient cube next turn (Efficient is a cube that is close to the Take/Pass point of you opponent). With the aggressive 13/2 if white dances then it will be a clear pass for white, almost a Too Good position for black which is not very efficient.

Apart from the cube factor Black is ahead in the race and white's hitting aces after 22/11, although costly are far from devastating. It is true that 13/2* does give much more gammons but should also loose more gammons and more games as three blots against a 3,5 pt board (White has many covering numbers to his 4pt blot) is not a great idea.

Nikos finally makes an excellent double despite the fact that he is on the bar and a dance would cost him a lot. If he enters hitting one of white's blots not only does he become a favorite to win the game but also increases his gammons a lot.

White should choose the "quite" play of 4/2 in order to minimize black's gammons. Hitting with 5/3* definately wins more games but at a very high cost, especially here that he is leading the score and the cube is turned.

Excellent play by Charis. Black's board is very strong to leave a blot so 4/3 becomes clear for the ace. There are only two reasonable 6s to play 24/18 and 13/7. Both increase the gammon wins (for different reasons) as the one aims at black's blot on the 14 point where the other increases the inside point making numbers. As we would expect 24/18 looses more gammons as it breaks the 24 anchor but also wins more games. Overall XG prefers 24/8 for its around 3% more wins.

Black should definately make the 7 point with the 4. There are two 6s to chose from and there are fairly close.

Difficult choice to be made here. Should Charis go all in for the win or should he try to minimize gammons? XG clearly prefers the slotting play despite the 4% more gammon looses.

I am not sure many players would get it right OTB (Over The Board). XG says it is a blunder not to leave a blot on the 2 point. One advantage of 10/3 is that is gives white good 6s next turn (if black does not hit).

Now white has to slot the 2 point without having 6s as covering numbers as he would if he had played 10/3 in his previous roll.

Great roll for Charis, he now has good chances if Nikos keeps dancing.

This is the best (along with 11) roll Charis could roll that does not contain a 4.

Not a bad roll!