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13 point match, Score is mman: 0, Iskandar: 1

Quick Summary:

mman  Category Iskandar 
Advanced (-0.0195) Total Error Expert (-0.0140)
Intermediate (-0.0276) Checker Play Advanced (-0.0159)
World Champ. (-0.0013) Cube Play World Champ. (+0.0000)
9.76 Performance Rating 7.01

 31: 8/5 6/5 
Pip=167-167
 
1.playedBook18/5 6/5eq: +0.226
Player:
Opponent:		55.30% (G:16.39% B:0.68%)
44.70% (G:11.19% B:0.47%)
2.Book124/23 13/10eq: -0.023 (-0.249)
Player:
Opponent:		49.62% (G:13.69% B:0.54%)
50.38% (G:13.52% B:0.59%)
3.Book113/10 6/5eq: -0.041 (-0.266)
Player:
Opponent:		49.61% (G:13.52% B:0.53%)
50.39% (G:14.07% B:0.87%)
4.Book113/9eq: -0.048 (-0.274)
Player:
Opponent:		49.06% (G:13.76% B:0.63%)
50.94% (G:13.88% B:0.67%)
5.Book124/20eq: -0.052 (-0.278)
Player:
Opponent:		49.13% (G:12.53% B:0.57%)
50.87% (G:13.47% B:0.51%)
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 21-May-11 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
 42: 8/4 6/4 
Pip=167-163
 
1.playedXG Roller++8/4 6/4eq: -0.178
Player:
Opponent:		45.48% (G:12.76% B:0.54%)
54.52% (G:16.43% B:0.80%)
2.XG Roller++24/22 13/9eq: -0.332 (-0.154)
Player:
Opponent:		42.06% (G:10.77% B:0.46%)
57.94% (G:17.82% B:0.85%)
3.4-ply13/11 13/9eq: -0.360 (-0.182)
Player:
Opponent:		41.26% (G:11.16% B:0.53%)
58.74% (G:18.70% B:1.21%)
4.4-ply24/18eq: -0.366 (-0.188)
Player:
Opponent:		41.84% (G:9.22% B:0.40%)
58.16% (G:19.35% B:0.73%)
5.4-ply13/9 6/4eq: -0.451 (-0.273)
Player:
Opponent:		39.96% (G:9.74% B:0.42%)
60.04% (G:20.37% B:1.60%)
 41: 24/23 13/9 
Pip=161-163
 
1.xgXG Roller++24/20 6/5eq: +0.084
Player:
Opponent:		52.44% (G:14.71% B:0.71%)
47.56% (G:13.40% B:0.53%)
2.playedXG Roller++24/23 13/9eq: +0.068 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		51.91% (G:15.88% B:0.75%)
48.09% (G:14.43% B:0.63%)
3.XG Roller++13/9 6/5eq: +0.062 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		51.71% (G:16.00% B:0.76%)
48.29% (G:14.42% B:0.77%)
4.XG Roller++24/23 24/20eq: +0.050 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		51.59% (G:14.09% B:0.64%)
48.41% (G:13.43% B:0.49%)
5.XG Roller++13/8eq: +0.037 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		51.06% (G:15.36% B:0.70%)
48.94% (G:14.20% B:0.67%)
 51: 24/23 13/8 
Pip=161-158
 
1.playedXG Roller++24/23 13/8eq: -0.190
Player:
Opponent:		45.45% (G:12.67% B:0.53%)
54.55% (G:17.28% B:0.71%)
2.XG Roller++24/18eq: -0.245 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:		44.65% (G:11.63% B:0.57%)
55.35% (G:19.04% B:0.71%)
3.XG Roller++24/23 6/1* eq: -0.325 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:		42.20% (G:11.74% B:0.42%)
57.80% (G:18.54% B:0.94%)
4.4-ply13/8 6/5eq: -0.377 (-0.187)
Player:
Opponent:		41.17% (G:10.69% B:0.46%)
58.83% (G:19.25% B:1.37%)
5.4-ply13/7eq: -0.418 (-0.228)
Player:
Opponent:		39.81% (G:10.58% B:0.44%)
60.19% (G:19.21% B:1.36%)
 41: 13/9 6/5 
Pip=155-158
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/9 6/5eq: +0.134
Player:
Opponent:		53.61% (G:16.44% B:0.67%)
46.39% (G:14.13% B:0.59%)
2.XG Roller++23/22 13/9eq: +0.109 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		53.09% (G:16.09% B:0.69%)
46.91% (G:14.25% B:0.58%)
3.XG Roller++24/23 13/9eq: +0.080 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:		51.79% (G:15.68% B:0.57%)
48.21% (G:13.07% B:0.57%)
4.XG Roller++6/2* 2/1* eq: +0.060 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:		51.31% (G:18.11% B:0.45%)
48.69% (G:14.94% B:0.85%)
5.XG Roller++24/20 9/8eq: -0.013 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:		50.27% (G:14.26% B:0.72%)
49.73% (G:15.03% B:0.55%)
 65: 24/18 23/18 
Pip=155-153
 
1.played3-ply24/18 23/18eq: +0.232
Player:
Opponent:		56.23% (G:12.31% B:0.43%)
43.77% (G:9.45% B:0.23%)
2.3-ply24/13eq: -0.151 (-0.383)
Player:
Opponent:		46.75% (G:11.03% B:0.45%)
53.25% (G:16.46% B:0.36%)
3.3-ply24/18 13/8eq: -0.323 (-0.556)
Player:
Opponent:		42.76% (G:12.25% B:0.71%)
57.24% (G:21.09% B:0.67%)
4.3-ply13/2* eq: -0.333 (-0.565)
Player:
Opponent:		41.10% (G:12.62% B:0.50%)
58.90% (G:17.95% B:1.03%)
5.3-ply23/18 8/2* eq: -0.380 (-0.612)
Player:
Opponent:		41.52% (G:11.28% B:0.53%)
58.48% (G:20.85% B:1.19%)
 21: 24/22 23/22 
Pip=144-153
 
1.playedXG Roller++24/22 23/22eq: -0.223
Player:
Opponent:		43.04% (G:7.93% B:0.21%)
56.96% (G:8.12% B:0.21%)
2.XG Roller++6/4 5/4eq: -0.263 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		43.43% (G:9.39% B:0.31%)
56.57% (G:12.80% B:0.33%)
3.XG Roller++23/20eq: -0.319 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:		42.50% (G:9.02% B:0.31%)
57.50% (G:14.21% B:0.41%)
4.XG Roller++23/22 6/4eq: -0.326 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:		42.27% (G:9.54% B:0.33%)
57.73% (G:15.36% B:0.45%)
5.XG Roller++23/22 5/3eq: -0.350 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:		41.74% (G:9.59% B:0.33%)
58.26% (G:15.87% B:0.48%)

Το 22 επείγει, ενώ το 4 μπορεί να γίνει και αργότερα.

 43: 13/6 
Pip=144-150
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/6eq: +0.148
Player:
Opponent:		54.71% (G:7.84% B:0.21%)
45.29% (G:8.51% B:0.24%)
2.XG Roller++13/10 6/2eq: +0.114 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		53.58% (G:8.32% B:0.21%)
46.42% (G:8.89% B:0.28%)
3.XG Roller++13/10 8/4eq: +0.086 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		52.89% (G:8.23% B:0.22%)
47.11% (G:9.28% B:0.29%)
4.XG Roller++8/1eq: +0.052 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:		52.29% (G:8.19% B:0.18%)
47.71% (G:10.47% B:0.30%)
5.XG Roller++8/5 6/2eq: +0.003 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		50.76% (G:8.94% B:0.25%)
49.24% (G:11.34% B:0.37%)
 31: 13/9 
Pip=137-150
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/9eq: -0.202
Player:
Opponent:		43.49% (G:8.36% B:0.22%)
56.51% (G:7.73% B:0.20%)
2.XG Roller++6/3 5/4eq: -0.214 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		43.57% (G:8.81% B:0.25%)
56.43% (G:9.20% B:0.33%)
3.XG Roller++9/8 9/6eq: -0.234 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		42.58% (G:8.11% B:0.20%)
57.42% (G:7.83% B:0.21%)
4.XG Roller++13/10 5/4eq: -0.240 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		43.00% (G:8.93% B:0.26%)
57.00% (G:9.63% B:0.32%)
5.XG Roller++6/2eq: -0.251 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		42.49% (G:8.52% B:0.22%)
57.51% (G:9.01% B:0.27%)
 31: 8/5 6/5 
Pip=137-146
 
1.played4-ply8/5 6/5eq: +0.358
Player:
Opponent:		60.46% (G:9.24% B:0.24%)
39.54% (G:6.68% B:0.19%)
2.4-ply6/2eq: +0.124 (-0.234)
Player:
Opponent:		54.31% (G:8.06% B:0.18%)
45.69% (G:8.99% B:0.29%)
3.4-ply8/4eq: +0.066 (-0.292)
Player:
Opponent:		52.74% (G:7.74% B:0.18%)
47.26% (G:9.56% B:0.30%)
4.3-ply13/10 6/5eq: +0.040 (-0.318)
Player:
Opponent:		52.01% (G:9.60% B:0.26%)
47.99% (G:11.34% B:0.39%)
5.3-ply13/9eq: -0.019 (-0.377)
Player:
Opponent:		49.97% (G:8.47% B:0.20%)
50.03% (G:10.17% B:0.31%)
 65: 8/3 8/2 
Pip=133-146
 
1.playedXG Roller++8/3 8/2eq: -0.465
Player:
Opponent:		37.35% (G:7.68% B:0.21%)
62.65% (G:11.91% B:0.40%)
2.XG Roller++9/3 6/1eq: -0.515 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		36.16% (G:6.80% B:0.13%)
63.84% (G:11.29% B:0.38%)
3.XG Roller++9/3 8/3eq: -0.524 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		36.00% (G:7.45% B:0.19%)
64.00% (G:11.73% B:0.37%)
4.XG Roller++9/4 9/3eq: -0.553 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:		35.14% (G:6.94% B:0.18%)
64.86% (G:11.38% B:0.41%)
5.XG Roller++9/4 8/2eq: -0.581 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:		34.51% (G:6.92% B:0.18%)
65.49% (G:12.13% B:0.47%)

Με τόσο ισχυρό αντίπαλο στρατόπεδο δεν είναι καλή ιδέα να αφήσει κανείς αχρείαστες βολές (κάνοντας την πόρτα του 3), ενώ το 9/3 6/1 θάβει πούλι.

 No double 
Pip=133-135
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 62.61% (G:11.95% B:0.44%) 62.57% (G:12.07% B:0.44%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 37.39% (G:7.42% B:0.23%) 37.43% (G:7.46% B:0.22%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.299 +0.607
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.471
     Double/Take:+0.355 (-0.116)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.529)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.3%
 53: 18/15 18/13 
Pip=133-135
 
1.xgXG Roller++13/10 13/8eq: +0.471
Player:
Opponent:		62.41% (G:12.55% B:0.43%)
37.59% (G:7.06% B:0.24%)
2.playedXG Roller++18/15 18/13eq: +0.459 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		63.26% (G:6.77% B:0.28%)
36.74% (G:5.58% B:0.09%)
3.XG Roller++13/5eq: +0.390 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:		60.33% (G:11.18% B:0.33%)
39.67% (G:7.29% B:0.18%)
4.XG Roller++13/10 6/1eq: +0.363 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:		59.66% (G:11.50% B:0.29%)
40.34% (G:8.28% B:0.23%)
5.4-ply18/10eq: +0.271 (-0.201)
Player:
Opponent:		58.44% (G:9.85% B:0.38%)
41.56% (G:10.55% B:0.23%)

Εδώ σκέφτηκα ότι εφόσον προηγούμαι στην κούρσα, είναι μια καλή ευκαιρία να τρέξω λόγω των δύο αντίπαλων εσωτερικών blots.
Το XG προκρίνει για λίγο την προσπάθεια να φτιαχτούν πόρτες στο outfield. Και τα δύο παιξίματα έχουν το πλεονέκτημα ότι πιθανό χτύπημα θα χαλάσει τη γυμνή αντίπαλη midpoint.

 42: 6/2 5/3 
Pip=125-135
 
1.playedXG Roller++6/2 5/3eq: -0.610
Player:
Opponent:		32.14% (G:2.54% B:0.04%)
67.86% (G:4.37% B:0.10%)
2.XG Roller++9/7 6/2eq: -0.634 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		31.56% (G:2.58% B:0.04%)
68.44% (G:4.99% B:0.16%)
3.XG Roller++9/3eq: -0.638 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		31.47% (G:2.55% B:0.05%)
68.53% (G:4.90% B:0.15%)
4.XG Roller++6/2 3/1eq: -0.684 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:		30.56% (G:2.85% B:0.04%)
69.44% (G:5.93% B:0.19%)
5.XG Roller++9/7 9/5eq: -0.688 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:		30.40% (G:2.52% B:0.04%)
69.60% (G:5.18% B:0.22%)
 No double 
Pip=125-129
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 67.78% (G:4.72% B:0.12%) 67.82% (G:4.56% B:0.11%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 32.22% (G:2.81% B:0.05%) 32.18% (G:2.48% B:0.04%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.375 +0.760
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.618
     Double/Take:+0.540 (-0.078)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.382)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.6%
 63: 15/6 
Pip=125-129
 
1.played3-ply15/6eq: +0.627
Player:
Opponent:		69.02% (G:3.91% B:0.05%)
30.98% (G:1.71% B:0.02%)
2.3-ply13/4eq: +0.248 (-0.379)
Player:
Opponent:		58.72% (G:6.14% B:0.18%)
41.28% (G:8.64% B:0.08%)
3.3-ply15/9 13/10eq: +0.211 (-0.416)
Player:
Opponent:		57.60% (G:6.35% B:0.23%)
42.40% (G:12.49% B:0.19%)
4.3-ply8/5 8/2eq: -0.034 (-0.661)
Player:
Opponent:		51.83% (G:6.08% B:0.15%)
48.17% (G:12.61% B:0.12%)
5.2-ply13/10 13/7eq: -0.212 (-0.839)
Player:
Opponent:		47.98% (G:8.44% B:0.37%)
52.02% (G:23.76% B:1.37%)
 42: 9/7 9/5 
Pip=116-129
 
1.playedXG Roller++9/7 9/5eq: -0.726
Player:
Opponent:		28.70% (G:1.18% B:0.02%)
71.30% (G:3.65% B:0.05%)
2.XG Roller++13/11 13/9eq: -0.733 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		28.45% (G:1.14% B:0.02%)
71.55% (G:3.51% B:0.05%)
3.XG Roller++9/3eq: -0.751 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:		28.20% (G:1.18% B:0.01%)
71.80% (G:4.00% B:0.07%)
4.XG Roller++9/5 6/4eq: -0.751 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		28.22% (G:1.35% B:0.02%)
71.78% (G:4.02% B:0.09%)
5.XG Roller++9/5 3/1eq: -0.754 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:		28.50% (G:1.91% B:0.03%)
71.50% (G:5.27% B:0.18%)
 No double 
Pip=116-123
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 71.30% (G:3.94% B:0.10%) 71.42% (G:3.99% B:0.10%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 28.70% (G:1.26% B:0.02%) 28.58% (G:1.23% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.454 +0.921
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.742
     Double/Take:+0.735 (-0.007)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.258)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.4%

Λόγω του ότι η anchor του είναι στο 22 και όχι πιο ψηλά, ο βίδος γίνεται ελκυστικός, παρά το μικρό προβάδισμα στην κούρσα.
Είναι από τις αποφάσεις που μπορεί κανείς να πάρει με βάση τη διαφορά δυναμικότητας των παικτών. (Γενικά, ο ισχυρότερος παίκτης παίζει λίγο συντηριτικότερα με τη χρήση του βίδου, με σκοπό το ματς να κριθεί σε περισσότερα games, ώστε να δώσει στον αντίπαλο τη δυνατότητα να κάνει περισσότερα λάθη απ' ό,τι εκείνος. Το αντίθετο ισχύει για τον πιο αδύναμο παίκτή: γενικά, πρέπει να είναι λιγο επιθετικότερος με τη χρήση του βίδου).


 31: 6/2 
Pip=116-123
 
1.playedXG Roller++6/2eq: +0.616
Player:
Opponent:		67.98% (G:4.00% B:0.08%)
32.02% (G:1.58% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++13/10 6/5eq: +0.569 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		66.61% (G:4.76% B:0.16%)
33.39% (G:3.37% B:0.05%)
3.4-ply5/4 5/2eq: +0.343 (-0.273)
Player:
Opponent:		61.04% (G:3.08% B:0.05%)
38.96% (G:2.61% B:0.04%)
4.3-ply13/9eq: +0.181 (-0.434)
Player:
Opponent:		57.14% (G:6.36% B:0.29%)
42.86% (G:9.12% B:0.10%)
5.3-ply8/7 8/5eq: +0.158 (-0.458)
Player:
Opponent:		56.50% (G:5.50% B:0.18%)
43.50% (G:8.83% B:0.12%)
 22: 9/1 
Pip=112-123
 
1.xgXG Roller++13/11 13/7eq: -0.680
Player:
Opponent:		30.40% (G:1.47% B:0.01%)
69.60% (G:4.11% B:0.11%)
2.XG Roller++13/9(2)eq: -0.685 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		30.19% (G:1.52% B:0.02%)
69.81% (G:4.10% B:0.08%)
3.XG Roller++13/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: -0.687 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		30.34% (G:1.56% B:0.02%)
69.66% (G:4.29% B:0.15%)
4.XG Roller++13/11(2) 5/1eq: -0.691 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		30.24% (G:1.73% B:0.01%)
69.76% (G:4.65% B:0.21%)
5.XG Roller++13/11 13/9 5/3eq: -0.695 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		30.02% (G:1.57% B:0.02%)
69.98% (G:4.40% B:0.14%)
6.playedXG Roller++9/1eq: -0.705 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		29.90% (G:1.62% B:0.01%)
70.10% (G:4.63% B:0.15%)

Μια συνηθισμένη περίπτωση, όπου πρέπει να κατέβουν τα δύο πούλια από τη midpoint, επειδή ο αντίπαλος έχει καλύτερο timing (θα παίξει με τα spare του).
Αν δεν γίνει τώρα, θα γίνει αργότερα, ενώ θα έχουν ήδη θαφτεί πούλια σ' αυτή τη ζαριά.

 No double 
Pip=112-115
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.22% (G:4.74% B:0.18%) 70.41% (G:4.68% B:0.17%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.78% (G:1.70% B:0.02%) 29.59% (G:1.55% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.437 +0.890
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.723
     Double/Take:+0.692 (-0.031)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.277)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.1%

Κι εδώ ο βίδος δεν θα ήταν πολύ λάθος, αν και το προβάδισμα στην κούρσα έχει μειωθεί.
Επειδή δεν ήμουν σίγουρος, συνυπολόγισα και τη διαφορά δυναμικότητας και αποφάσισα να περιμένω.

 11: 8/7(2) 6/5 2/1 
Pip=112-115
 
1.xgRollout18/7(2) 6/4eq: +0.655
Player:
Opponent:		67.95% (G:6.01% B:0.25%)
32.05% (G:2.51% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.645...+0.664) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 04 seconds
2.playedRollout18/7(2) 6/5 2/1eq: +0.597 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:		66.45% (G:6.46% B:0.19%)
33.55% (G:2.66% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.588...+0.606) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 47 seconds
3.XG Roller++8/7(2) 6/5(2)eq: +0.630 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		67.52% (G:5.96% B:0.17%)
32.48% (G:2.43% B:0.03%)
4.XG Roller++6/5 6/4 2/1eq: +0.534 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:		64.99% (G:5.71% B:0.17%)
35.01% (G:2.90% B:0.03%)
5.4-ply6/4(2)eq: +0.462 (-0.193)
Player:
Opponent:		64.20% (G:4.60% B:0.10%)
35.80% (G:2.61% B:0.03%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 65: 13/8 13/7 
Pip=108-115
 
1.xgXG Roller++22/11eq: -0.445
Player:
Opponent:		36.96% (G:3.75% B:0.04%)
63.04% (G:8.55% B:0.18%)
2.playedXG Roller++13/8 13/7eq: -0.642 (-0.197)
Player:
Opponent:		32.33% (G:2.50% B:0.02%)
67.67% (G:6.62% B:0.15%)
3.4-ply22/17 7/1eq: -0.609 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:		34.32% (G:5.11% B:0.03%)
65.68% (G:14.47% B:0.24%)
4.4-ply13/8 7/1eq: -0.692 (-0.247)
Player:
Opponent:		29.76% (G:3.13% B:0.03%)
70.24% (G:6.76% B:0.11%)
5.4-ply7/1 6/1eq: -0.759 (-0.314)
Player:
Opponent:		29.27% (G:1.64% B:0.01%)
70.73% (G:7.30% B:0.12%)

Δεν θα έβρισκα το σωστό παίξειμο εδώ. Μάλιστα στην παρτίδα, ο Μίμης το δοκίμασε, και με θυμάμαι να παρακαλάω να το παίξει. :-)
Κατόπιν εορτής, μπορώ να εικάσω ότι πρέπει να τρέξει επειδή (α) μετά το 22/11 η κούρσα είναι ίση, (β) το blot στον άσο μου τον προστατεύει εν μέρει από την επίθεσή μου και (γ) το κυριότερο, έχω καλύτερο timing λόγω των spare στη midpoint μου.
Πάντως, ειλικρινά, δεν νομίζω ότι θα το παίξω σωστά όταν θα το ξαναδώ.

 No double 
Pip=108-104
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 67.51% (G:6.70% B:0.17%) 67.57% (G:6.52% B:0.16%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 32.49% (G:2.64% B:0.03%) 32.43% (G:2.46% B:0.03%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.392 +0.794
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.649
     Double/Take:+0.591 (-0.058)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.351)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.5%

Εδώ δεν βίδαρα λόγω κούρσας.

 61: 13/7 5/4 
Pip=108-104
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/7 5/4eq: +0.633
Player:
Opponent:		66.80% (G:6.66% B:0.18%)
33.20% (G:2.22% B:0.03%)
2.xgXG Roller++13/6eq: +0.625 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		66.52% (G:7.41% B:0.18%)
33.48% (G:2.58% B:0.03%)
3.XG Roller++13/7 6/5eq: +0.540 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:		64.62% (G:7.63% B:0.20%)
35.38% (G:3.23% B:0.05%)
4.XG Roller++13/12 13/7eq: +0.518 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:		64.04% (G:7.48% B:0.29%)
35.96% (G:4.43% B:0.07%)
5.4-ply7/6 7/1eq: +0.388 (-0.245)
Player:
Opponent:		61.51% (G:4.82% B:0.10%)
38.49% (G:2.71% B:0.02%)
 44: 8/4 7/3 6/2 5/1 
Pip=101-104
 
1.playedXG Roller++8/4 7/3 6/2 5/1eq: -0.837
Player:
Opponent:		29.43% (G:1.75% B:0.01%)
70.57% (G:10.10% B:0.29%)
2.xgXG Roller++8/4 7/3(2) 5/1eq: -0.839 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		29.75% (G:2.39% B:0.02%)
70.25% (G:11.55% B:0.37%)
3.XG Roller++8/4 7/3 5/1(2)eq: -0.860 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		28.99% (G:1.62% B:0.01%)
71.01% (G:10.13% B:0.32%)
4.XG Roller++8/4 6/2(2) 5/1eq: -0.875 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		28.90% (G:1.56% B:0.01%)
71.10% (G:10.24% B:0.26%)
5.XG Roller++8/4 5/1(3)eq: -0.878 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		28.40% (G:1.32% B:0.01%)
71.60% (G:9.39% B:0.23%)
 No double 
Pip=101-88
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.54% (G:10.47% B:0.42%) 70.56% (G:11.08% B:0.43%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.46% (G:1.91% B:0.02%) 29.44% (G:2.11% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.502 +1.027
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.840 (-0.010)
xg Double/Take:+0.850
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.150)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take

Τα 44 έχουν σχεδόν καταστρέψει το στρατόπεδό του, όμως αν και τα καμένα δεν μετράνε όσο φαίνεται στην κούρσα (wastage) αυτή παραμένει υπέρ του, οπότε δεν βίδαρα.

 52: 7/5 6/1 
Pip=101-88
 
1.xgXG Roller++7/2 4/2eq: +0.877
Player:
Opponent:		70.61% (G:12.08% B:0.38%)
29.39% (G:2.39% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++13/6eq: +0.829 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:		69.93% (G:10.46% B:0.28%)
30.07% (G:1.70% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller++13/11 7/2eq: +0.809 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:		68.57% (G:14.58% B:0.89%)
31.43% (G:4.10% B:0.07%)
4.playedXG Roller++7/5 6/1eq: +0.773 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:		68.97% (G:9.72% B:0.30%)
31.03% (G:1.83% B:0.02%)
5.XG Roller++13/11 6/1eq: +0.769 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:		68.96% (G:9.48% B:0.27%)
31.04% (G:1.72% B:0.02%)

"When in doubt, make the prettiest play"
Το σκεπτικό πίσω από το 7/5 6/1 ήταν να μην έχω blot στο στρατόπεδό μου, ώστε να μπορώ να επιτεθώ όταν θα λύσει (και θα λύσει για να διεκδικήσει την ίση κούρσα) και να έχω τρεις builders.
Το σωστό 7/2 4/2 κάνει την καλύτερη πόρτα του 2, ενώ το blot που αφήνει στον άσο δεν είναι τόσο σημαντικό, λόγω του κακού αντίπαλου board, που θα συνεχίσει να καταστρέφεται. Επίσης, το 7/2 4/2 είναι το πιο pure παίξιμο και κρατάει τη μέγιστη δυνατή ευελιξία λόγω του spare στο 6.

 33: 7/4 6/3 5/2(2) 
Pip=94-88
 
1.playedXG Roller++7/4 6/3 5/2(2)eq: -0.988
Player:
Opponent:		26.99% (G:1.49% B:0.01%)
73.01% (G:12.09% B:0.31%)
2.XG Roller++7/1 6/3 4/1eq: -1.000 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		25.85% (G:1.32% B:0.01%)
74.15% (G:13.04% B:0.36%)
3.XG Roller++6/3 5/2(2) 4/1eq: -1.000 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		24.24% (G:0.77% B:0.01%)
75.76% (G:13.58% B:0.33%)
4.XG Roller++7/1 5/2 4/1eq: -1.000 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		23.48% (G:0.95% B:0.01%)
76.52% (G:15.03% B:0.57%)
5.XG Roller++7/1 5/2(2)eq: -1.000 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		23.66% (G:1.02% B:0.01%)
76.34% (G:15.97% B:0.61%)
 Double/Take 
Pip=94-76
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 73.00% (G:11.98% B:0.30%) 72.77% (G:12.76% B:0.32%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 27.00% (G:1.35% B:0.01%) 27.23% (G:1.68% B:0.01%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.571 +1.159
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.861 (-0.126)
played Double/Take:+0.988
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.012)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take

Εδώ πια το στρατόπεδό του είναι χάλια και το wastage μεγάλο. Στην επόμενη ζαριά υπάρχουν πολλά makret losers που θα με κάνουν να χάσω την αγορά μου με double / pass, οπότε ο βίδος τώρα είναι υποχρεωτικός.

 53: 13/5 
Pip=94-76
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/5eq: +0.479
Player:
Opponent:		72.31% (G:12.35% B:0.29%)
27.69% (G:1.75% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++7/2 5/2eq: +0.368 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:		66.73% (G:15.06% B:0.38%)
33.27% (G:2.61% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller++7/4 7/2eq: +0.353 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:		66.95% (G:13.92% B:0.34%)
33.05% (G:3.10% B:0.03%)
4.XG Roller++13/8 5/2eq: +0.342 (-0.137)
Player:
Opponent:		66.76% (G:13.24% B:0.33%)
33.24% (G:3.82% B:0.04%)
5.4-ply13/8 4/1eq: +0.253 (-0.227)
Player:
Opponent:		64.75% (G:8.54% B:0.22%)
35.25% (G:2.44% B:0.02%)
 54: 22/13 
Pip=86-76
 
1.played3-ply22/13eq: -0.504
Player:
Opponent:		26.67% (G:2.06% B:0.02%)
73.33% (G:13.43% B:0.34%)
 41: 13/9 13/12*  
Pip=86-67
 
1.xgXG Roller++13/12* 7/3* eq: +0.979
Player:
Opponent:		86.49% (G:30.47% B:0.86%)
13.51% (G:4.10% B:0.12%)
2.XG Roller++7/3* 4/3eq: +0.851 (-0.128)
Player:
Opponent:		85.46% (G:18.01% B:0.46%)
14.54% (G:0.63% B:0.01%)
3.playedXG Roller++13/9 13/12* eq: +0.834 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		83.30% (G:21.60% B:0.57%)
16.70% (G:1.23% B:0.01%)
4.XG Roller++13/12* 5/1eq: +0.829 (-0.151)
Player:
Opponent:		84.14% (G:19.15% B:0.45%)
15.86% (G:0.99% B:0.01%)
5.4-ply13/12* 12/8eq: +0.776 (-0.203)
Player:
Opponent:		81.48% (G:20.78% B:0.56%)
18.52% (G:1.80% B:0.02%)

Πρέπει να παραδεχτώ ότι δεν εξέτασα καθόλου το διπλό χτύπημα. Είδα μόνο την πόρτα και την απέρριψα επειδή ήθελα οπωσδήποτε το έξω πούλι λόγω κούρσας.
Ο λόγος που το έχασα αυτό είναι ο φόβος μου απέναντι στο σεβαστό του board (πάντα πρέπει να σέβεσαι ένα 4-πορτο board), όμως αυτό που αποφασίζει στη θέση αυτή είναι η μεγάλη διαφορά των gammons για μένα (30.5% έναντι 21.6%). Αυτό βέβαια είναι προφανές. Εκείνο που δεν ήξερα είναι ότι και οι συνολικές νίκες είναι περισσότερες (κατά 3.2%)με το διπλό χτύπημα.

 54: Cannot Move 
Pip=81-79
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -1.157
Player:
Opponent:		7.68% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)
92.32% (G:31.43% B:0.93%)
 43: 12/8 9/6 
Pip=81-79
 
1.xgXG Roller++12/9 7/3* eq: +1.050
Player:
Opponent:		88.63% (G:30.21% B:0.87%)
11.37% (G:1.28% B:0.01%)
2.XG Roller++9/6 7/3* eq: +1.033 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		87.88% (G:31.02% B:0.94%)
12.12% (G:2.34% B:0.04%)
3.XG Roller++7/4 7/3* eq: +0.957 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:		86.02% (G:28.06% B:0.81%)
13.98% (G:2.45% B:0.04%)
4.XG Roller++9/6 5/1eq: +0.906 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		87.83% (G:17.71% B:0.42%)
12.17% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++7/3* 4/1eq: +0.902 (-0.148)
Player:
Opponent:		85.04% (G:26.48% B:0.71%)
14.96% (G:4.21% B:0.11%)
6.playedXG Roller++12/8 9/6eq: +0.872 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:		85.23% (G:20.34% B:0.56%)
14.77% (G:0.45% B:0.00%)

Αυτό είναι εγκληματικό. Δεν επιτρέπεται να αφήνεις τον αντίπαλο να δέσει σε τέτοια θέση, πόσω μάλλον όταν το board του επιτρέπει εύκολη διαφυγή.

 32: Bar/22 3/1 
Pip=74-79
 
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/22 3/1eq: -0.645
Player:
Opponent:		16.80% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
83.20% (G:3.27% B:0.03%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 4/2eq: -0.707 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		15.32% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
84.68% (G:5.88% B:0.09%)
3.3-plyBar/23 4/1eq: -1.318 (-0.673)
Player:
Opponent:		5.37% (G:0.35% B:0.01%)
94.63% (G:40.85% B:1.59%)
 53: 8/5 6/1 
Pip=74-74
 
1.played4-ply8/5 6/1eq: +0.600
Player:
Opponent:		81.72% (G:1.96% B:0.01%)
18.28% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply8/5 7/2eq: +0.404 (-0.196)
Player:
Opponent:		72.72% (G:3.89% B:0.03%)
27.28% (G:0.31% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply7/4 7/2eq: +0.372 (-0.229)
Player:
Opponent:		71.22% (G:4.19% B:0.03%)
28.78% (G:0.41% B:0.01%)
4.4-ply6/1 5/2eq: +0.355 (-0.245)
Player:
Opponent:		70.82% (G:4.02% B:0.03%)
29.18% (G:0.78% B:0.01%)
5.3-ply6/1 4/1eq: +0.254 (-0.347)
Player:
Opponent:		67.27% (G:2.67% B:0.03%)
32.73% (G:0.56% B:0.00%)
 52: 22/15 
Pip=66-74
 
1.playedXG Roller++22/15eq: -0.617
Player:
Opponent:		17.50% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
82.50% (G:2.03% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++22/17 3/1eq: -0.670 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:		15.47% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
84.53% (G:2.63% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller++22/17 4/2eq: -0.726 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:		14.36% (G:0.19% B:0.00%)
85.64% (G:5.78% B:0.09%)
 62: 7/5 7/1 
Pip=66-67
 
1.played4-ply7/5 7/1eq: +0.513
Player:
Opponent:		78.57% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
21.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply7/1 5/3* eq: +0.255 (-0.258)
Player:
Opponent:		67.49% (G:3.51% B:0.03%)
32.51% (G:1.36% B:0.01%)
3.3-ply7/1 4/2eq: +0.136 (-0.378)
Player:
Opponent:		63.02% (G:0.53% B:0.00%)
36.98% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
4.2-ply7/1 6/4eq: -0.237 (-0.750)
Player:
Opponent:		46.84% (G:0.46% B:0.00%)
53.16% (G:1.56% B:0.01%)

Η ευκαιρία για gammon έχει πετάξει. Μετά το 62 είμαι μπροστά στην κούρσα 9 pips (και στην ουσία 14 λόγω των καμένων του) οπότε είναι σαφές ότι δεν πρέπει να χτυπήσω.

 44: 22/10 15/11 
Pip=58-67
 
1.playedXG Roller++22/10 15/11eq: -0.040
Player:
Opponent:		41.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
58.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++22/6eq: -0.052 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		40.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++22/14 15/7eq: -0.056 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		40.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++22/18 15/3eq: -0.142 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:		36.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
63.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 11: 1/Off(4) 
Pip=58-51
 
1.playedXG Roller++1/Off(4)eq: +0.086
Player:
Opponent:		60.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++5/4 1/Off(3)eq: +0.057 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		59.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++4/3 1/Off(3)eq: +0.042 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:		58.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++5/3 1/Off(2)eq: -0.005 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:		56.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++6/5 1/Off(3)eq: -0.018 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:		56.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 66: 11/Off 10/Off 
Pip=54-51
 
1.played3-ply11/Off 10/Offeq: +0.742
Player:
Opponent:		72.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
27.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 42: 5/3 4/Off 
Pip=54-30
 
1.played4-ply5/3 4/Offeq: -0.966
Player:
Opponent:		21.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
78.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply6/Offeq: -1.000 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		19.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply4/2 4/Offeq: -1.000 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		19.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.4-ply5/3 5/1eq: -1.000 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		19.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.4-ply6/2 5/3eq: -1.000 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		19.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 Double/Pass 
Pip=48-30
 
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 78.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 77.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 21.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 22.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.563 +1.131
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.862 (-0.138)±0.002 (+0.860..+0.865)
xg Redouble/Take:+1.002 (+0.002)±0.003 (+0.998..+1.005)
played Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 83.6%
Duration: 8.5 seconds

Υπολόγισα ότι είχα γύρω στο 17%, οπότε μου φάνηκε καθαρό πάσο. Όμως ακόμα κι αν ήξερα την ακριβή εκτίμηση (οριακό take) πάλι πάσο θα πήγαινα, λόγω διαφοράς δυναμικότητας και ύψους κύβου.

 Wins 2pts. 
 

Game Summary:

mman  Category Iskandar 
4(3)
-0.497(-3.71%)		 Move Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 2(1)
-0.238(-1.06%)
0
-0.010(-0.05%)		 Double Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0.000
0
+0.000		 Take Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0.000
0 Outplays 0
4(3)
-0.507(-3.76%)		 Total Error
Equity lost (cost)		 2(1)
-0.238(-1.06%)
3
-0.375(-7.12%)		 Joker
Luck		 2
+0.375(+7.12%)
Advanced
9.76		 Level of Play
Performance Rating		 Expert
7.01
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on 14-Mar-18 7:28:09 PM