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13 point match, Score is mman: 2, marcvd: 0

Quick Summary:

mman  Category marcvd 
World Champ. (-0.0038) Total Error World Champ. (-0.0039)
World Champ. (-0.0046) Checker Play World Class (-0.0053)
World Champ. (+0.0000) Cube Play World Champ. (+0.0000)
1.89 Performance Rating 1.97

 62: 24/18 13/11 
Pip=167-167
 
1.playedBook124/18 13/11eq: -0.019
Player:
Opponent:		50.76% (G:12.90% B:0.61%)
49.24% (G:13.50% B:0.55%)
2.Book124/16eq: -0.047 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:		50.26% (G:11.72% B:0.50%)
49.74% (G:13.35% B:0.48%)
3.Book113/5eq: -0.067 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:		49.13% (G:13.77% B:0.63%)
50.87% (G:13.72% B:0.68%)
4.Book124/22 13/7eq: -0.113 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:		48.00% (G:12.92% B:0.51%)
52.00% (G:13.84% B:0.60%)
5.Book113/11 13/7eq: -0.114 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:		48.22% (G:13.73% B:0.69%)
51.78% (G:14.94% B:0.89%)
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 21-May-11 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
 33: 13/7*(2)  
Pip=159-167
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/7*(2) eq: +0.245
Player:
Opponent:		54.39% (G:16.18% B:0.74%)
45.61% (G:11.03% B:0.46%)
2.XG Roller++13/7* 8/5(2)eq: +0.238 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		53.37% (G:18.13% B:0.84%)
46.63% (G:12.00% B:0.65%)
3.XG Roller++13/7* 6/3(2)eq: +0.224 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		53.34% (G:17.39% B:0.89%)
46.66% (G:11.76% B:0.58%)
4.XG Roller++24/21(2) 13/7* eq: +0.151 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:		51.95% (G:13.55% B:0.53%)
48.05% (G:9.69% B:0.33%)
5.XG Roller++24/21(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.146 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:		51.92% (G:11.27% B:0.34%)
48.08% (G:7.29% B:0.23%)
 41: Bar/20 
Pip=166-155
 
1.xgRollout1Bar/21 6/5eq: -0.328
Player:
Opponent:		44.68% (G:11.33% B:0.53%)
55.32% (G:19.97% B:1.38%)		Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.346...-0.311) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 11 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/20eq: -0.372 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:		42.83% (G:10.72% B:0.53%)
57.17% (G:18.82% B:0.89%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.386...-0.358) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 13 seconds
3.XG Roller++Bar/21 24/23eq: -0.371 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		42.80% (G:10.06% B:0.42%)
57.20% (G:18.27% B:0.78%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/24 13/9eq: -0.378 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:		42.24% (G:11.65% B:0.51%)
57.76% (G:17.48% B:1.18%)
5.XG Roller++Bar/21 11/10eq: -0.389 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		42.42% (G:10.17% B:0.45%)
57.58% (G:18.25% B:0.86%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Μάλλον δεν θα τα μάθω ποτέ αυτά, ίσως επειδή τέτοια παιξίματα αποτελούν εξαίρεση στον κανόνα που λέει ότι δεν πρέπει να είμαστε ανοιχτοί συγχρόνως στην άμυνα και στην επίθεση. Πάντως, θα έπρεπε να το υποψιαστώ ότι πρόκεται για εξαίρεση, καθώς δεν αισθανόμουν άνετα παίζοντας bar/20.

 No double 
Pip=161-155
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 57.39% (G:18.58% B:0.85%) 57.51% (G:18.66% B:0.84%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 42.61% (G:10.27% B:0.44%) 42.49% (G:10.21% B:0.45%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.235 +0.503
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.386
     Double/Take:+0.257 (-0.129)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.614)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.8%
 53: 13/5*  
Pip=161-155
 
1.xgRollout18/3 6/3eq: +0.228
Player:
Opponent:		54.21% (G:17.58% B:0.71%)
45.79% (G:11.72% B:0.64%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.215...+0.241) - [83.3%]
Duration: 23 minutes 39 seconds
2.playedRollout113/5* eq: +0.219 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		53.56% (G:17.34% B:1.00%)
46.44% (G:12.56% B:0.71%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.204...+0.234) - [16.7%]
Duration: 28 minutes 55 seconds
3.XG Roller++8/5* 6/1* eq: +0.179 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:		52.27% (G:17.97% B:0.64%)
47.73% (G:12.76% B:0.72%)
4.XG Roller++24/21 13/8eq: +0.176 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:		53.27% (G:13.46% B:0.56%)
46.73% (G:10.91% B:0.41%)
5.XG Roller++24/16eq: +0.160 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:		53.19% (G:13.51% B:0.63%)
46.81% (G:12.03% B:0.44%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Έχοντας φτιάξει το bar, ο Marc έχει πιο πολλά να χάσει αν χτυπηθεί σε σχέση με το τυπικό χτύπημα της δευτέρης ζαριάς στο 5 με 53.

 65: Bar/20* 20/14 
Pip=166-147
 
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/20* 20/14eq: +0.032
Player:
Opponent:		52.12% (G:13.94% B:0.80%)
47.88% (G:13.92% B:0.60%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/20* 13/7eq: -0.108 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:		48.42% (G:13.47% B:0.79%)
51.58% (G:14.91% B:0.81%)
3.4-plyBar/20* 11/5eq: -0.158 (-0.190)
Player:
Opponent:		47.38% (G:12.33% B:0.62%)
52.62% (G:15.12% B:0.79%)
4.4-plyBar/20* 8/2eq: -0.278 (-0.310)
Player:
Opponent:		44.77% (G:11.56% B:0.57%)
55.23% (G:17.36% B:1.09%)
 62: Bar/23 24/18 
Pip=155-167
 
1.played4-plyBar/23 24/18eq: -0.131
Player:
Opponent:		45.72% (G:11.56% B:0.48%)
54.28% (G:14.39% B:0.70%)
2.4-plyBar/23 13/7eq: -0.318 (-0.186)
Player:
Opponent:		40.90% (G:10.97% B:0.51%)
59.10% (G:16.97% B:1.13%)
3.4-plyBar/23 8/2eq: -0.323 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:		40.79% (G:11.72% B:0.39%)
59.21% (G:17.90% B:1.30%)
4.4-plyBar/23 7/1* eq: -0.365 (-0.234)
Player:
Opponent:		39.69% (G:11.08% B:0.32%)
60.31% (G:17.59% B:1.36%)
 51: 8/7* 7/2*  
Pip=155-159
 
1.xgRollout18/7* 6/1* eq: +0.015
Player:
Opponent:		51.65% (G:15.57% B:0.72%)
48.35% (G:15.48% B:0.81%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.001...+0.031) - [99.9%]
Duration: 29 minutes 28 seconds
2.playedRollout18/7* 7/2* eq: -0.024 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		50.36% (G:15.37% B:0.99%)
49.64% (G:15.39% B:0.89%)		Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.042...-0.006) - [0.1%]
Duration: 30 minutes 00 second
3.XG Roller++14/9 8/7* eq: -0.116 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:		48.66% (G:13.09% B:0.67%)
51.34% (G:15.82% B:0.95%)
4.XG Roller++13/7* eq: -0.133 (-0.148)
Player:
Opponent:		48.20% (G:13.37% B:0.74%)
51.80% (G:16.31% B:0.98%)
5.4-ply14/13 11/6eq: -0.203 (-0.219)
Player:
Opponent:		46.29% (G:9.37% B:0.31%)
53.71% (G:14.24% B:0.40%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Το σκέφτηκα αρκετή ώρα. Το 8/7* 6/1* έχει σίγουρα καλύτερη κατανομή, αφού ξεφορτώνει την πόρτα 6, αλλά φοβήθηκα να αφήσω τόσα πούλια ανοιχτά. Από την άλλη, τέτοια ρίσκα μπορούμε να τα παίρνουμε στην αρχή της παρτίδας, όταν το αντίπαλο στρατόπεδο είναι ακόμα αδύναμο, όπως εδώ.

 21: Bar/24 Bar/23*  
Pip=149-168
 
1.played3-plyBar/24 Bar/23* eq: +0.179
Player:
Opponent:		53.00% (G:16.23% B:0.80%)
47.00% (G:12.04% B:0.66%)
 62: Bar/23 14/8 
Pip=172-165
 
1.played4-plyBar/23 14/8eq: -0.282
Player:
Opponent:		44.81% (G:11.54% B:0.56%)
55.19% (G:18.21% B:0.84%)
2.4-plyBar/23 11/5eq: -0.477 (-0.195)
Player:
Opponent:		41.42% (G:10.16% B:0.55%)
58.58% (G:22.98% B:1.64%)
3.4-plyBar/23 13/7eq: -0.564 (-0.282)
Player:
Opponent:		39.39% (G:9.48% B:0.48%)
60.61% (G:24.24% B:2.21%)
4.4-plyBar/23 8/2* eq: -0.615 (-0.333)
Player:
Opponent:		38.83% (G:9.44% B:0.51%)
61.17% (G:25.24% B:2.49%)
 No double 
Pip=164-165
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 55.45% (G:18.21% B:0.85%) 55.41% (G:18.26% B:0.85%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 44.55% (G:11.58% B:0.54%) 44.59% (G:11.61% B:0.54%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.178 +0.379
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.302
     Double/Take:+0.126 (-0.176)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.698)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.7%
 42: 8/4 6/4 
Pip=164-165
 
1.played4-ply8/4 6/4eq: +0.317
Player:
Opponent:		55.96% (G:19.22% B:0.97%)
44.04% (G:12.22% B:0.70%)
2.4-ply24/18eq: +0.047 (-0.270)
Player:
Opponent:		50.42% (G:13.68% B:0.67%)
49.58% (G:14.01% B:0.67%)
3.4-ply24/20 23/21eq: +0.044 (-0.272)
Player:
Opponent:		49.87% (G:14.70% B:0.81%)
50.13% (G:14.12% B:0.72%)
4.4-ply24/22 24/20eq: +0.023 (-0.294)
Player:
Opponent:		49.51% (G:13.79% B:0.67%)
50.49% (G:13.92% B:0.65%)
5.4-ply24/22 6/2* eq: +0.018 (-0.298)
Player:
Opponent:		49.43% (G:14.04% B:0.69%)
50.57% (G:14.27% B:0.82%)
 32: 23/20 13/11 
Pip=164-159
 
1.playedXG Roller++23/20 13/11eq: -0.426
Player:
Opponent:		42.57% (G:10.96% B:0.64%)
57.43% (G:22.49% B:0.92%)
2.XG Roller++24/22 11/8eq: -0.541 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:		39.73% (G:9.82% B:0.52%)
60.27% (G:24.51% B:0.85%)
3.XG Roller++24/22 23/20eq: -0.573 (-0.148)
Player:
Opponent:		39.26% (G:9.70% B:0.58%)
60.74% (G:25.27% B:1.31%)
4.4-ply13/11 13/10eq: -0.572 (-0.146)
Player:
Opponent:		39.09% (G:10.10% B:0.56%)
60.91% (G:24.97% B:1.31%)
5.4-ply23/20 11/9eq: -0.601 (-0.176)
Player:
Opponent:		38.22% (G:9.27% B:0.52%)
61.78% (G:24.21% B:1.30%)
 No double 
Pip=159-159
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 57.27% (G:22.46% B:0.93%) 57.35% (G:22.59% B:0.92%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 42.73% (G:11.15% B:0.65%) 42.65% (G:11.07% B:0.66%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.261 +0.562
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.419
     Double/Take:+0.318 (-0.102)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.581)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.0%
 53: 13/5*  
Pip=159-159
 
1.xgRollout18/5* 6/1* eq: +0.250
Player:
Opponent:		53.01% (G:23.30% B:0.64%)
46.99% (G:14.58% B:1.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.232...+0.268) - [98.1%]
Duration: 26 minutes 42 seconds
2.playedRollout113/5* eq: +0.225 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		53.05% (G:19.92% B:1.16%)
46.95% (G:13.77% B:1.13%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.209...+0.240) - [1.9%]
Duration: 27 minutes 16 seconds
3.XG Roller++8/3 6/3eq: +0.176 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:		51.98% (G:17.92% B:0.67%)
48.02% (G:12.58% B:0.78%)
4.XG Roller++24/16eq: +0.165 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:		52.98% (G:15.10% B:0.74%)
47.02% (G:12.21% B:0.54%)
5.XG Roller++24/21 6/1* eq: +0.116 (-0.134)
Player:
Opponent:		50.55% (G:16.57% B:0.48%)
49.45% (G:12.06% B:0.57%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Το διπλό χτύπημα προστατεύει το blot/slot στο 5, αυξάνοντας τις πιθανότητες να κερδηθεί η μάχη εκεί.

 52: Bar/20* 24/22 
Pip=164-151
 
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/20* 24/22eq: +0.043
Player:
Opponent:		52.74% (G:14.85% B:1.01%)
47.26% (G:14.94% B:0.57%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/20* 13/11eq: -0.012 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:		51.15% (G:14.63% B:0.90%)
48.85% (G:15.00% B:0.68%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/20* 8/6eq: -0.139 (-0.182)
Player:
Opponent:		48.34% (G:13.52% B:0.81%)
51.66% (G:16.52% B:0.77%)
4.4-plyBar/20* 6/4eq: -0.164 (-0.207)
Player:
Opponent:		48.57% (G:13.44% B:0.89%)
51.43% (G:18.91% B:1.20%)
5.4-plyBar/20* 11/9eq: -0.166 (-0.209)
Player:
Opponent:		47.77% (G:14.33% B:1.04%)
52.23% (G:18.71% B:1.37%)
 22: Bar/23 13/11 7/5*(2)  
Pip=157-171
 
1.xgXG Roller++Bar/21 7/5*(2) eq: +0.395
Player:
Opponent:		55.77% (G:23.50% B:0.85%)
44.23% (G:11.71% B:0.71%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/23 24/22 7/5*(2) eq: +0.370 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		55.05% (G:23.65% B:0.88%)
44.95% (G:11.93% B:0.62%)
3.playedXG Roller++Bar/23 13/11 7/5*(2) eq: +0.369 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		54.97% (G:23.63% B:0.83%)
45.03% (G:11.92% B:0.68%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/23 7/5*(2) 6/4eq: +0.364 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		54.78% (G:23.85% B:0.90%)
45.22% (G:12.60% B:0.76%)
5.4-plyBar/23 13/11 7/5* 5/3* eq: +0.169 (-0.226)
Player:
Opponent:		50.91% (G:21.50% B:0.75%)
49.09% (G:15.10% B:1.14%)

Με δεδομένο ότι ο Marc δεν πρόκειται να πάει για backgame, τώρα που είμαι χτυπημένος είναι η καλύτερη στιγμή να κινητοποιήσει τα πίσω πούλια του.

 42: Bar/23 22/18 
Pip=162-163
 
1.played3-plyBar/23 22/18eq: -0.377
Player:
Opponent:		44.93% (G:11.51% B:0.68%)
55.07% (G:25.04% B:0.71%)
2.3-plyBar/23 13/9eq: -0.708 (-0.331)
Player:
Opponent:		38.57% (G:10.50% B:0.75%)
61.43% (G:30.59% B:1.92%)
3.3-plyBar/23 8/4eq: -0.835 (-0.457)
Player:
Opponent:		37.01% (G:8.95% B:0.54%)
62.99% (G:31.86% B:1.85%)
4.3-plyBar/23 11/7eq: -1.000 (-0.623)
Player:
Opponent:		32.59% (G:7.58% B:0.46%)
67.41% (G:35.74% B:3.61%)
 No double 
Pip=156-163
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 55.29% (G:25.57% B:0.82%) 55.38% (G:25.71% B:0.83%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 44.71% (G:11.45% B:0.70%) 44.62% (G:11.39% B:0.70%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.248 +0.540
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.398
     Double/Take:+0.281 (-0.117)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.602)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.0%
 42: 11/7* 7/5 
Pip=156-163
 
1.playedXG Roller++11/7* 7/5eq: +0.512
Player:
Opponent:		57.24% (G:26.46% B:1.03%)
42.76% (G:10.88% B:0.58%)
2.XG Roller++24/22 11/7* eq: +0.396 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:		54.86% (G:24.06% B:1.01%)
45.14% (G:11.78% B:0.61%)
3.XG Roller++23/21 11/7* eq: +0.393 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:		55.12% (G:24.54% B:0.97%)
44.88% (G:11.79% B:0.71%)
4.XG Roller++11/7* 6/4eq: +0.380 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:		54.58% (G:24.69% B:0.97%)
45.42% (G:12.22% B:0.70%)
5.4-ply23/21 6/2* eq: +0.208 (-0.304)
Player:
Opponent:		51.10% (G:21.45% B:0.62%)
48.90% (G:13.45% B:0.95%)
 41: Bar/24 13/9 
Pip=163-157
 
1.played4-plyBar/24 13/9eq: -0.833
Player:
Opponent:		37.66% (G:9.68% B:0.59%)
62.34% (G:33.47% B:2.23%)
2.4-plyBar/24 8/4eq: -1.000 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent:		35.37% (G:8.53% B:0.48%)
64.63% (G:37.72% B:2.58%)
3.4-plyBar/24 11/7eq: -1.000 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent:		31.76% (G:7.07% B:0.36%)
68.24% (G:40.36% B:4.75%)
 Double/Take 
Pip=158-157
 
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 62.34% (G:33.21% B:1.97%) 62.18% (G:34.25% B:1.97%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 37.66% (G:9.80% B:0.62%) 37.82% (G:10.12% B:0.72%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.496 +1.051
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.705 (-0.097)±0.017 (+0.688..+0.722)
played Double/Take:+0.802±0.025 (+0.778..+0.827)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.198)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 29 minutes 04 seconds

Το θέωρησα λάθος και εντυπωσιάζομαι από το πόσο βίδος είναι. Φυσικά ποντάρει στις βολές στο 16 και στην επίθεσή του με το καλό στρατόπεδο.
Μπράβο στον Marc για έναν τόσο καλό βίδο.

 61: 23/16*  
Pip=158-157
 
1.playedXG Roller++23/16* eq: +0.430
Player:
Opponent:		63.33% (G:31.48% B:2.42%)
36.67% (G:8.70% B:0.49%)
2.XG Roller++8/2* 2/1* eq: +0.402 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:		61.09% (G:36.25% B:1.83%)
38.91% (G:10.90% B:0.73%)
3.4-ply23/22 8/2* eq: +0.128 (-0.303)
Player:
Opponent:		54.75% (G:26.71% B:1.89%)
45.25% (G:13.94% B:1.16%)
4.3-ply8/2* 6/5eq: +0.063 (-0.368)
Player:
Opponent:		52.67% (G:25.73% B:1.83%)
47.33% (G:14.35% B:1.18%)
5.3-ply8/2* 5/4eq: +0.058 (-0.373)
Player:
Opponent:		52.48% (G:25.77% B:1.78%)
47.52% (G:14.46% B:1.15%)
 44: Cannot Move 
Pip=174-150
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -0.733
Player:
Opponent:		29.57% (G:6.08% B:0.34%)
70.43% (G:41.72% B:3.01%)
 43: 6/2* 5/2 
Pip=174-150
 
1.played4-ply6/2* 5/2eq: +0.812
Player:
Opponent:		72.27% (G:43.61% B:3.65%)
27.73% (G:5.10% B:0.25%)
2.4-ply16/13 6/2* eq: +0.617 (-0.195)
Player:
Opponent:		67.76% (G:37.44% B:3.21%)
32.24% (G:7.34% B:0.46%)
3.4-ply24/21 6/2* eq: +0.605 (-0.207)
Player:
Opponent:		67.60% (G:36.57% B:3.05%)
32.40% (G:7.08% B:0.35%)
4.4-ply23/20 6/2* eq: +0.584 (-0.228)
Player:
Opponent:		66.87% (G:36.49% B:3.08%)
33.13% (G:7.35% B:0.43%)
5.4-ply23/16eq: +0.576 (-0.236)
Player:
Opponent:		67.86% (G:33.63% B:2.24%)
32.14% (G:6.59% B:0.28%)
 31: Bar/24 Bar/22 
Pip=176-143
 
1.played3-plyBar/24 Bar/22eq: -0.480
Player:
Opponent:		35.09% (G:7.61% B:0.39%)
64.91% (G:30.64% B:3.68%)
 65: 24/18 23/18 
Pip=172-143
 
1.Rollout116/10 8/3* eq: +0.490
Player:
Opponent:		65.02% (G:32.53% B:4.20%)
34.98% (G:7.81% B:0.61%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.479...+0.501) - [99.9%]
Duration: 14 minutes 18 seconds
2.playedRollout124/18 23/18eq: +0.466 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:		66.05% (G:28.34% B:2.56%)
33.95% (G:7.08% B:0.38%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.457...+0.476) - [0.1%]
Duration: 12 minutes 38 seconds
3.XG Roller++24/18 8/3* eq: +0.436 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		63.24% (G:31.30% B:4.27%)
36.76% (G:9.80% B:0.75%)
4.XG Roller++24/13eq: +0.394 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:		62.96% (G:28.36% B:3.20%)
37.04% (G:8.96% B:0.54%)
5.XG Roller++24/18 16/11eq: +0.385 (-0.105)
Player:
Opponent:		62.85% (G:27.62% B:2.57%)
37.15% (G:8.00% B:0.42%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Γενικά ο κανόνας είναι παίξε εκεί που είσαι δυνατός. Δεν είναι σοβαρό λάθος επειδή η πόρτα του bar είναι σημαντική.

 61: 22/15 
Pip=172-132
 
1.playedXG Roller++22/15eq: -0.589
Player:
Opponent:		30.53% (G:5.02% B:0.22%)
69.47% (G:29.17% B:3.12%)
2.XG Roller++22/16 6/5eq: -0.607 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		31.88% (G:5.16% B:0.24%)
68.12% (G:32.82% B:4.36%)
3.XG Roller++11/5 6/5eq: -0.701 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:		30.27% (G:5.49% B:0.31%)
69.73% (G:37.36% B:5.46%)
4.XG Roller++8/1* eq: -0.708 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:		28.61% (G:4.89% B:0.20%)
71.39% (G:34.88% B:4.53%)
5.4-ply8/2 6/5eq: -0.838 (-0.249)
Player:
Opponent:		28.47% (G:4.04% B:0.20%)
71.53% (G:42.84% B:7.85%)
 21: 16/13 
Pip=165-132
 
1.playedXG Roller++16/13eq: +0.470
Player:
Opponent:		67.29% (G:24.70% B:2.07%)
32.71% (G:6.31% B:0.23%)
2.xgXG Roller++18/16 6/5eq: +0.465 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		66.67% (G:25.72% B:2.24%)
33.33% (G:6.57% B:0.25%)
3.XG Roller++24/22 16/15eq: +0.447 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		66.53% (G:24.82% B:1.90%)
33.47% (G:6.85% B:0.27%)
4.XG Roller++24/23 18/16eq: +0.435 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		65.87% (G:24.79% B:2.23%)
34.13% (G:6.75% B:0.26%)
5.XG Roller++16/15 6/4eq: +0.416 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		65.17% (G:25.29% B:1.99%)
34.83% (G:7.40% B:0.29%)
 43: 15/12* 12/8 
Pip=165-129
 
1.playedXG Roller++15/12* 12/8eq: -0.405
Player:
Opponent:		34.76% (G:7.46% B:0.28%)
65.24% (G:24.47% B:1.60%)
2.XG Roller++15/8eq: -0.522 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:		30.27% (G:5.41% B:0.20%)
69.73% (G:23.86% B:1.74%)
3.XG Roller++15/11 6/3eq: -0.559 (-0.154)
Player:
Opponent:		30.45% (G:5.08% B:0.22%)
69.55% (G:26.72% B:2.55%)
4.4-ply15/11 8/5eq: -0.567 (-0.162)
Player:
Opponent:		30.24% (G:5.12% B:0.24%)
69.76% (G:27.05% B:2.62%)
5.4-ply15/12* 6/2eq: -0.635 (-0.230)
Player:
Opponent:		31.10% (G:5.17% B:0.21%)
68.90% (G:33.64% B:4.46%)
 51: Bar/20 6/5 
Pip=158-141
 
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/20 6/5eq: +0.328
Player:
Opponent:		62.57% (G:24.34% B:1.67%)
37.43% (G:9.25% B:0.36%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/20 24/23eq: +0.317 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		62.30% (G:23.83% B:1.57%)
37.70% (G:9.00% B:0.32%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/24 8/3eq: +0.266 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		60.00% (G:24.66% B:1.52%)
40.00% (G:9.61% B:0.48%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/24 18/13eq: +0.240 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:		59.96% (G:22.65% B:1.81%)
40.04% (G:10.07% B:0.60%)
5.4-plyBar/20 8/7eq: +0.150 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:		56.72% (G:22.66% B:1.40%)
43.28% (G:11.50% B:0.52%)
 62: 24/16 
Pip=158-135
 
1.playedXG Roller++24/16eq: -0.454
Player:
Opponent:		35.70% (G:7.07% B:0.34%)
64.30% (G:31.70% B:0.79%)
2.XG Roller++24/18 8/6eq: -0.553 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:		32.96% (G:6.78% B:0.34%)
67.04% (G:34.59% B:0.87%)
3.XG Roller++8/2 6/4eq: -0.584 (-0.129)
Player:
Opponent:		31.07% (G:6.16% B:0.25%)
68.93% (G:30.36% B:3.53%)
4.XG Roller++24/22 24/18eq: -0.597 (-0.143)
Player:
Opponent:		32.56% (G:6.68% B:0.36%)
67.44% (G:37.87% B:0.84%)
5.XG Roller++8/6 8/2eq: -0.600 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		28.99% (G:5.79% B:0.21%)
71.01% (G:27.90% B:2.48%)
 66: 24/18 8/2(2) 
Pip=150-135
 
1.played3-ply24/18 8/2(2)eq: +0.046
Player:
Opponent:		54.12% (G:17.32% B:0.29%)
45.88% (G:8.56% B:0.37%)
 53: 8/3 6/3 
Pip=150-117
 
1.playedRollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.225
Player:
Opponent:		41.44% (G:10.15% B:0.48%)
58.56% (G:26.57% B:0.49%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.234...-0.216) - [76.5%]
Duration: 9 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout116/11 8/5* eq: -0.230 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		41.33% (G:9.35% B:0.38%)
58.67% (G:26.00% B:0.55%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.241...-0.219) - [23.5%]
Duration: 10 minutes 23 seconds
3.XG Roller++16/11 6/3eq: -0.227 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		40.79% (G:8.39% B:0.36%)
59.21% (G:23.09% B:0.28%)
4.XG Roller++16/13 8/3eq: -0.271 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:		39.35% (G:8.13% B:0.35%)
60.65% (G:23.75% B:0.27%)
5.XG Roller++16/8eq: -0.293 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:		38.31% (G:7.19% B:0.29%)
61.69% (G:22.84% B:0.25%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 43: 18/15 5/1*  
Pip=142-117
 
1.playedXG Roller++18/15 5/1* eq: +0.127
Player:
Opponent:		54.70% (G:27.01% B:0.44%)
45.30% (G:12.81% B:0.68%)
2.XG Roller++20/13eq: +0.033 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:		53.83% (G:17.39% B:0.32%)
46.17% (G:9.59% B:0.37%)
3.4-ply18/11eq: -0.085 (-0.212)
Player:
Opponent:		49.91% (G:17.01% B:0.31%)
50.09% (G:12.18% B:0.47%)
4.4-ply20/16 18/15eq: -0.103 (-0.230)
Player:
Opponent:		49.07% (G:19.33% B:0.83%)
50.93% (G:15.60% B:0.64%)
5.4-ply20/16 5/2eq: -0.185 (-0.312)
Player:
Opponent:		47.53% (G:13.30% B:0.20%)
52.47% (G:12.73% B:0.40%)

Το χτύπημα είναι θεματικό. Σωστά παίζει εκεί που υπερτερεί.

 65: Cannot Move 
Pip=143-110
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -0.552
Player:
Opponent:		34.52% (G:8.33% B:0.49%)
65.48% (G:39.84% B:0.50%)
 33: 18/15(2) 6/3(2) 
Pip=143-110
 
1.playedXG Roller++18/15(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.215
Player:
Opponent:		57.41% (G:27.93% B:0.41%)
42.59% (G:10.93% B:0.49%)
2.XG Roller++18/15(2) 4/1(2)eq: +0.073 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent:		53.87% (G:22.79% B:0.16%)
46.13% (G:11.38% B:0.49%)
3.3-ply18/15 6/3(2) 4/1eq: -0.185 (-0.399)
Player:
Opponent:		45.87% (G:20.79% B:0.19%)
54.13% (G:17.38% B:1.12%)
4.3-ply6/3(2) 4/1(2)eq: -0.248 (-0.462)
Player:
Opponent:		44.06% (G:18.04% B:0.10%)
55.94% (G:16.25% B:0.83%)
5.3-ply18/15(2) 5/2(2)eq: -0.432 (-0.646)
Player:
Opponent:		39.38% (G:13.71% B:0.24%)
60.62% (G:19.66% B:0.94%)
 54: Cannot Move 
Pip=143-98
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -0.601
Player:
Opponent:		32.72% (G:7.13% B:0.39%)
67.28% (G:39.48% B:0.36%)
 53: 15/7 
Pip=143-98
 
1.played4-ply15/7eq: +0.363
Player:
Opponent:		61.30% (G:31.87% B:0.33%)
38.70% (G:9.13% B:0.51%)
2.4-ply20/15 4/1eq: +0.178 (-0.184)
Player:
Opponent:		56.84% (G:25.51% B:0.20%)
43.16% (G:10.72% B:0.44%)
3.4-ply15/10 4/1eq: +0.129 (-0.233)
Player:
Opponent:		54.71% (G:26.69% B:0.18%)
45.29% (G:11.65% B:0.66%)
4.2-ply15/10 5/2eq: -0.418 (-0.780)
Player:
Opponent:		39.26% (G:16.61% B:0.31%)
60.74% (G:21.85% B:1.63%)
5.2-ply20/15 5/2eq: -0.445 (-0.808)
Player:
Opponent:		38.97% (G:12.36% B:0.21%)
61.03% (G:19.10% B:0.63%)
 61: Bar/24* 24/18*  
Pip=143-90
 
1.played3-plyBar/24* 24/18* eq: +0.614
Player:
Opponent:		66.41% (G:16.94% B:0.88%)
33.59% (G:7.97% B:0.15%)
2.3-plyBar/24* 11/5* eq: +0.211 (-0.403)
Player:
Opponent:		55.67% (G:19.84% B:1.14%)
44.33% (G:22.79% B:1.43%)
3.3-plyBar/18* eq: +0.149 (-0.465)
Player:
Opponent:		52.28% (G:12.54% B:0.66%)
47.72% (G:16.12% B:0.19%)
4.2-plyBar/24* 8/2eq: -0.249 (-0.863)
Player:
Opponent:		42.26% (G:11.85% B:0.65%)
57.74% (G:30.63% B:1.16%)
5.2-plyBar/19 6/5* eq: -0.281 (-0.895)
Player:
Opponent:		42.60% (G:10.55% B:0.62%)
57.40% (G:33.89% B:0.70%)
 64: Bar/21 
Pip=136-132
 
1.played3-plyBar/21eq: -0.737
Player:
Opponent:		29.88% (G:8.32% B:0.25%)
70.12% (G:23.86% B:1.22%)
 No double 
Pip=136-128
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69.51% (G:22.81% B:1.24%) 69.71% (G:22.08% B:1.23%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.49% (G:8.53% B:0.21%) 30.29% (G:7.97% B:0.16%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.538 +0.980
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.723
     Redouble/Take:+0.680 (-0.042)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.277)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.6%

Σκέφτηκα το redouble εδώ, αλλά με φόβησαν το καλύτερο στρατόπεδό του και τα δύο ανοιχτά μου. Σε περίπτωση που χτυπηθώ, τα διπλα είναι πολλά.

 41: 8/4* 4/3 
Pip=136-128
 
1.playedXG Roller++8/4* 4/3eq: +0.543
Player:
Opponent:		63.39% (G:16.61% B:0.82%)
36.61% (G:8.37% B:0.19%)
2.XG Roller++16/12 6/5* eq: +0.475 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:		62.92% (G:18.47% B:0.95%)
37.08% (G:14.94% B:0.53%)
3.XG Roller++16/11eq: +0.468 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:		61.53% (G:11.99% B:0.49%)
38.47% (G:6.99% B:0.12%)
4.XG Roller++18/14 6/5* eq: +0.446 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:		62.16% (G:17.68% B:0.95%)
37.84% (G:15.64% B:0.55%)
5.XG Roller++8/4* 6/5* eq: +0.423 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:		62.44% (G:24.45% B:1.50%)
37.56% (G:19.83% B:1.19%)

Είναι σημαντικό να μειώσω την πιθανότητα να δέσει.

 54: Bar/21 Bar/20 
Pip=131-132
 
1.played3-plyBar/21 Bar/20eq: -0.323
Player:
Opponent:		42.68% (G:8.06% B:0.16%)
57.32% (G:9.28% B:0.30%)
 54: 16/11 6/2 
Pip=131-123
 
1.playedXG Roller++16/11 6/2eq: +0.281
Player:
Opponent:		55.68% (G:9.40% B:0.33%)
44.32% (G:8.91% B:0.16%)
2.XG Roller++18/14 16/11eq: +0.201 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:		53.28% (G:7.16% B:0.26%)
46.72% (G:9.44% B:0.13%)
3.XG Roller++18/13 16/12eq: +0.150 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:		51.25% (G:6.54% B:0.24%)
48.75% (G:9.17% B:0.12%)
4.XG Roller++18/13 6/2eq: +0.129 (-0.153)
Player:
Opponent:		51.00% (G:8.39% B:0.32%)
49.00% (G:12.21% B:0.20%)
5.4-ply16/7eq: 0.000 (-0.282)
Player:
Opponent:		47.96% (G:8.77% B:0.34%)
52.04% (G:17.68% B:0.32%)
 55: 20/10(2) 
Pip=122-123
 
1.playedXG Roller++20/10(2)eq: +0.126
Player:
Opponent:		59.42% (G:11.42% B:0.23%)
40.58% (G:6.38% B:0.20%)
2.XG Roller++21/11 20/15(2)eq: +0.028 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:		55.86% (G:10.97% B:0.16%)
44.14% (G:7.62% B:0.17%)
3.XG Roller++20/15 20/5eq: -0.016 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:		53.96% (G:11.49% B:0.21%)
46.04% (G:8.46% B:0.19%)
4.4-ply21/6 20/15eq: -0.100 (-0.226)
Player:
Opponent:		51.51% (G:9.55% B:0.17%)
48.49% (G:9.33% B:0.23%)
5.4-ply21/11 15/10(2)eq: -0.145 (-0.271)
Player:
Opponent:		48.84% (G:7.59% B:0.06%)
51.16% (G:4.35% B:0.12%)
 44: 18/14 8/4*(2) 6/2 
Pip=122-103
 
1.playedXG Roller++18/14 8/4*(2) 6/2eq: +0.592
Player:
Opponent:		64.88% (G:14.63% B:0.39%)
35.12% (G:5.53% B:0.10%)
2.XG Roller++13/9 8/4*(2) 6/2eq: +0.569 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		63.60% (G:19.87% B:0.54%)
36.40% (G:11.02% B:0.39%)
3.XG Roller++11/7 8/4*(2) 6/2eq: +0.521 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:		62.19% (G:18.90% B:0.50%)
37.81% (G:10.54% B:0.23%)
4.3-ply13/9(2) 8/4*(2) eq: +0.142 (-0.450)
Player:
Opponent:		51.86% (G:13.62% B:0.37%)
48.14% (G:15.97% B:0.31%)
5.3-ply11/3 8/4*(2) eq: +0.021 (-0.572)
Player:
Opponent:		48.13% (G:10.74% B:0.25%)
51.87% (G:17.21% B:0.37%)
 21: Bar/24 10/8 
Pip=106-107
 
1.played4-plyBar/24 10/8eq: -0.540
Player:
Opponent:		34.80% (G:4.44% B:0.05%)
65.20% (G:10.55% B:0.23%)
2.4-plyBar/24 5/3eq: -0.710 (-0.170)
Player:
Opponent:		30.36% (G:4.94% B:0.08%)
69.64% (G:18.49% B:0.38%)
3.4-plyBar/24 3/1eq: -0.765 (-0.225)
Player:
Opponent:		28.96% (G:4.67% B:0.06%)
71.04% (G:19.70% B:0.48%)
4.4-plyBar/24 4/2eq: -0.789 (-0.249)
Player:
Opponent:		28.48% (G:4.36% B:0.06%)
71.52% (G:19.31% B:0.40%)
5.3-plyBar/24 15/13eq: -1.081 (-0.541)
Player:
Opponent:		18.69% (G:3.43% B:0.13%)
81.31% (G:34.93% B:2.00%)
 No double 
Pip=106-104
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 65.03% (G:10.60% B:0.33%) 65.21% (G:10.71% B:0.39%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 34.97% (G:4.23% B:0.06%) 34.79% (G:4.00% B:0.07%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.364 +0.685
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.548
     Redouble/Take:+0.352 (-0.196)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.452)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 23.2%

Κι εδώ σκέφτηκα το redouble, αλλά ο αντίπαλος είναι καλός στην κούρσα και υπάρχει αρκετή δουλειά να γίνει στο outfield.

 55: 14/4 13/8(2) 
Pip=106-104
 
1.playedXG Roller++14/4 13/8(2)eq: +0.915
Player:
Opponent:		76.55% (G:5.94% B:0.12%)
23.45% (G:0.95% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++14/9 13/8(2) 11/6eq: +0.861 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		75.01% (G:7.45% B:0.15%)
24.99% (G:1.27% B:0.03%)
3.XG Roller++11/1*(2) eq: +0.845 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:		76.32% (G:23.45% B:0.48%)
23.68% (G:4.38% B:0.10%)
4.XG Roller++13/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.767 (-0.148)
Player:
Opponent:		72.27% (G:13.15% B:0.29%)
27.73% (G:3.16% B:0.08%)
5.4-ply14/9 11/6(3)eq: +0.723 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:		70.91% (G:8.00% B:0.11%)
29.09% (G:1.98% B:0.04%)

Με δεδομένο ότι είμαι πλεόν πολύ μπροστά στην κούρσα και έχω τον βίδο στη μεριά μου, δεν υπάρχει λόγος να ρισκάρω. Τα διπλα που δίνει το χτύπημα στον άσσο δεν αξίζουν τις βολές, ενώ το 13/8(2) 6/1*(2) θάβει πούλι (επειδή έχει κάνει τον άσσο).

 62: 10/4 8/6 
Pip=86-104
 
1.xgXG Roller++15/13 15/9eq: -0.991
Player:
Opponent:		21.93% (G:0.85% B:0.02%)
78.07% (G:5.15% B:0.11%)
2.playedXG Roller++10/4 8/6eq: -1.000 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		21.56% (G:0.91% B:0.02%)
78.44% (G:7.89% B:0.11%)
3.XG Roller++24/16eq: -1.000 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		18.98% (G:0.42% B:0.01%)
81.02% (G:5.08% B:0.04%)
4.XG Roller++10/2eq: -1.000 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		19.94% (G:0.76% B:0.02%)
80.06% (G:8.32% B:0.11%)
5.XG Roller++24/18 8/6eq: -1.000 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		19.62% (G:0.98% B:0.02%)
80.38% (G:8.98% B:0.11%)
 Double/Pass 
Pip=86-96
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 78.45% (G:7.71% B:0.11%) 78.56% (G:9.46% B:0.17%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 21.55% (G:0.85% B:0.02%) 21.44% (G:1.01% B:0.01%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.639 +1.275
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.904 (-0.096)
     Redouble/Take:+1.076 (+0.076)
played Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
 Wins 2pts. 
 

Game Summary:

mman  Category marcvd 
2
-0.083(-0.38%)		 Move Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 3
-0.095(-0.58%)
0
+0.000		 Double Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0.000
0
+0.000		 Take Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0.000
0 Outplays 0
2
-0.083(-0.38%)		 Total Error
Equity lost (cost)		 3
-0.095(-0.58%)
6
+0.645(+9.70%)		 Joker
Luck		 6
-0.645(-9.70%)
World Champ.
1.89		 Level of Play
Performance Rating		 World Champ.
1.97
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on 30-Jul-19 4:09:43 PM