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7 point match, Score is Tanaka,Michi: 0, HK: 0

Quick Summary:

Tanaka,Michi  Category HK 
World Champ. (-0,0025) Total Error World Champ. (+0,0000)
World Class (-0,0051) Checker Play World Champ. (+0,0000)
World Champ. (+0,0000) Cube Play World Champ. (+0,0000)
1,27 Performance Rating 0,00

 31: 8/5 6/5 
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:7:10 Pip=167-167
 
1.played3-ply8/5 6/5eq: +0,230
Player:
Opponent:		55,42% (G:16,54% B:0,75%)
44,58% (G:11,14% B:0,48%)
2.2-ply24/23 13/10eq: -0,010 (-0,240)
Player:
Opponent:		49,63% (G:13,41% B:0,61%)
50,37% (G:13,36% B:0,57%)
3.2-ply13/10 6/5eq: -0,014 (-0,244)
Player:
Opponent:		49,84% (G:13,64% B:0,61%)
50,16% (G:14,17% B:0,93%)
4.2-ply13/9eq: -0,032 (-0,262)
Player:
Opponent:		48,91% (G:13,70% B:0,73%)
51,09% (G:13,59% B:0,73%)
5.2-ply24/20eq: -0,038 (-0,268)
Player:
Opponent:		49,10% (G:12,21% B:0,52%)
50,90% (G:13,14% B:0,51%)
 64: 24/14 
XGID=-b---BD-B---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:64:0:0:0:7:10 Pip=163-167
 
1.played4-ply24/14eq: -0,333
Player:
Opponent:		42,73% (G:8,78% B:0,33%)
57,27% (G:17,45% B:0,63%)
2.4-ply24/18 13/9eq: -0,357 (-0,024)
Player:
Opponent:		42,36% (G:10,15% B:0,49%)
57,64% (G:19,68% B:0,95%)
3.4-ply8/2 6/2eq: -0,357 (-0,024)
Player:
Opponent:		41,35% (G:11,73% B:0,60%)
58,65% (G:18,77% B:0,95%)
4.3-ply13/3eq: -0,478 (-0,145)
Player:
Opponent:		38,91% (G:10,00% B:0,51%)
61,09% (G:19,90% B:1,20%)
5.3-ply13/9 13/7eq: -0,501 (-0,168)
Player:
Opponent:		38,95% (G:10,09% B:0,50%)
61,05% (G:20,86% B:1,75%)
 No double 
XGID=-a---BD-B--aeE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10 Pip=163-157
 
Analyzed in 4-ply No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 57,27% (G:17,45% B:0,63%) 57,22% (G:17,66% B:0,63%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 42,73% (G:8,78% B:0,33%) 42,78% (G:8,82% B:0,33%)
  Cubeless Equities +0,237 +0,490
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0,333
     Double/Take:+0,168 (-0,165)
     Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,667)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16,5%
 33: 24/21(2) 13/10(2) 
XGID=-a---BD-B--aeE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:7:10 Pip=163-157
 
1.played4-ply24/21(2) 13/10(2)eq: +0,436
Player:
Opponent:		59,48% (G:16,71% B:0,41%)
40,52% (G:5,71% B:0,16%)
2.4-ply13/7(2)eq: +0,430 (-0,006)
Player:
Opponent:		59,45% (G:19,93% B:0,60%)
40,55% (G:9,08% B:0,38%)
3.4-ply24/21(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0,425 (-0,011)
Player:
Opponent:		59,06% (G:16,69% B:0,36%)
40,94% (G:5,56% B:0,16%)
4.4-ply24/18(2)eq: +0,377 (-0,059)
Player:
Opponent:		59,01% (G:13,62% B:0,30%)
40,99% (G:5,65% B:0,15%)
5.3-ply13/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0,369 (-0,067)
Player:
Opponent:		58,02% (G:19,63% B:0,65%)
41,98% (G:8,97% B:0,34%)
 21: 24/22 14/13 
XGID=-a---BD-B-BaeC---c-e-B----:0:0:-1:21:0:0:0:7:10 Pip=151-157
 
1.playedXG Roller+24/22 14/13eq: -0,612
Player:
Opponent:		37,37% (G:5,42% B:0,17%)
62,63% (G:21,71% B:0,36%)
2.XG Roller+14/11eq: -0,636 (-0,024)
Player:
Opponent:		36,17% (G:5,60% B:0,18%)
63,83% (G:19,90% B:0,52%)
3.3-ply14/13 8/6eq: -0,731 (-0,119)
Player:
Opponent:		34,51% (G:5,04% B:0,12%)
65,49% (G:22,06% B:0,51%)
4.2-ply6/3eq: -0,754 (-0,142)
Player:
Opponent:		34,27% (G:5,75% B:0,12%)
65,73% (G:23,15% B:0,77%)
5.2-ply24/21eq: -0,793 (-0,181)
Player:
Opponent:		34,69% (G:5,34% B:0,10%)
65,31% (G:25,91% B:0,65%)
 No double 
XGID=---a-BD-B-B-fC---c-e-B----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10 Pip=151-154
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 62,36% (G:22,57% B:0,42%) 62,66% (G:22,21% B:0,43%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 37,64% (G:5,44% B:0,18%) 37,34% (G:5,39% B:0,18%)
  Cubeless Equities +0,424 +0,881
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0,623
     Double/Take:+0,594 (-0,029)
     Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,377)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6,7%
 66: 21/9(2) 
XGID=---a-BD-B-B-fC---c-e-B----:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:7:10 Pip=151-154
 
1.xgXG Roller++21/15(2) 10/4(2)eq: +1,031
Player:
Opponent:		77,43% (G:23,57% B:0,25%)
22,57% (G:3,02% B:0,10%)
2.playedXG Roller++21/9(2)eq: +1,016 (-0,015)
Player:
Opponent:		80,05% (G:19,36% B:0,21%)
19,95% (G:1,65% B:0,05%)
3.4-ply21/15(2) 8/2(2)eq: +0,964 (-0,067)
Player:
Opponent:		73,59% (G:20,88% B:0,24%)
26,41% (G:3,84% B:0,13%)
4.4-ply21/15(2) 13/1eq: +0,945 (-0,085)
Player:
Opponent:		70,98% (G:21,24% B:0,22%)
29,02% (G:4,59% B:0,17%)
5.3-ply21/15(2) 13/7(2)eq: +0,935 (-0,095)
Player:
Opponent:		74,54% (G:20,43% B:0,40%)
25,46% (G:3,21% B:0,08%)

Although very close, this position worths our attention as the "cubelessly" best choice 21/9(2) becomes second due to the higher gammon percentage of the other candidate 21/15(2), 10/4(2). Most probably next turn it will be too good/pass (or double/pass at worst) so it worths (for white) going for the gammon with the relative safety of black's future pass.

 64: 13/9 13/7 
XGID=---a-BD-BBB-fC---c-e------:0:0:-1:64:0:0:0:7:10 Pip=127-154
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/9 13/7eq: -1,033
Player:
Opponent:		19,95% (G:1,81% B:0,05%)
80,05% (G:21,38% B:0,24%)
2.XG Roller++13/7 8/4eq: -1,045 (-0,012)
Player:
Opponent:		19,72% (G:1,77% B:0,05%)
80,28% (G:22,32% B:0,25%)
3.XG Roller++8/2 6/2eq: -1,056 (-0,024)
Player:
Opponent:		19,00% (G:1,80% B:0,05%)
81,00% (G:24,30% B:0,24%)
4.XG Roller++13/3eq: -1,058 (-0,025)
Player:
Opponent:		19,22% (G:1,84% B:0,05%)
80,78% (G:24,13% B:0,25%)
5.XG Roller++22/18 13/7eq: -1,062 (-0,029)
Player:
Opponent:		17,95% (G:1,74% B:0,05%)
82,05% (G:23,92% B:0,26%)
 Double/Pass 
XGID=---a-BD-BBB-dC--acae------:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10 Pip=127-144
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 80,13% (G:21,23% B:0,22%) 80,67% (G:22,12% B:0,25%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 19,87% (G:1,79% B:0,05%) 19,33% (G:1,75% B:0,05%)
  Cubeless Equities +0,803 +1,684
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+1,039
     Double/Take:+1,537 (+0,498)
played Double/Pass:+1,000 (-0,039)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 7,3%

Tanaka and Michi, having not only a big racing lead but also an good distribution, should have played on, going for the gammon. As mentioned earlier in the vast majority of the next sequences it will be a pass for black and white have some gammonish jokers next turn (e.g. 66,55,33).

Against a weak player doubling could be correct as he could possibly make a huge blunder by taking the cube.

 Wins 1pt. 
 

Game Summary:

Tanaka,Michi  Category HK 
0
-0,015(-0,10%)		 Move Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0,000
0
+0,000		 Double Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0,000
0
+0,000		 Take Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0,000
0 Outplays 0
0
-0,015(-0,10%)		 Total Error
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0,000
1
+1,014(+6,35%)		 Joker
Luck		 0
-1,014(-6,35%)
World Champ.
1,27		 Level of Play
Performance Rating		 World Champ.
0,00
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on 9/9/2013 7:02:19 PM