 53: 8/3 6/3 |
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 53: 8/3 6/3 |
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| 64: 24/14 |
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| 21: 24/23 13/11* |
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66: Cannot Move  |
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| 66: 13/1*(2) |
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| 31: Cannot Move |
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| No double |
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| XGID=-aaB--D-B---bEa--b-d--b-bB:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:17:10 |
Pip=161-132 |
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| Analyzed in 4-ply |
No double |
Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: |
73,76% (G:50,83% B:0,83%) |
73,78% (G:50,98% B:0,83%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: |
26,24% (G:6,30% B:0,40%) |
26,22% (G:6,34% B:0,41%) |
| Cubeless Equities |
+0,935 |
+1,905 |
| Cubeful Equities |
 No double: | +1,086 | |
| Double/Take: | +1,704 (+0,618) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1,000 (-0,086) |
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| Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass |
| Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 12,2% |
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The last two rolls by both sides have turned this game from a "No Double" to a "Too Good to Double" and Nikos has correctly understood that on the board. |
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| 31: 8/5 6/5 |
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| 63: Cannot Move |
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| 32: 13/10 11/9 |
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| 62: Bar/23 |
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| 62: 10/4 6/4 |
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| XGID=-aaB--D-B---aE-aaa-cb-bAbA:0:0:-1:62:0:0:0:17:10 |
Pip=159-123 |
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1. | XG Roller++ | 13/11 8/2* | eq: +1,211 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 76,94% (G:59,89% B:0,45%)
23,06% (G:5,68% B:0,43%) | |
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| 2. | XG Roller++ | 10/4 6/4 | eq: +1,184 (-0,027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 77,45% (G:56,06% B:0,65%)
22,55% (G:4,41% B:0,23%) | |
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| 3. | 4-ply | 23/21 8/2* | eq: +1,104 (-0,107) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 74,27% (G:55,45% B:1,39%)
25,73% (G:7,45% B:0,76%) | |
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| 4. | 4-ply | 9/7 8/2* | eq: +1,102 (-0,109) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 74,29% (G:55,13% B:1,32%)
25,71% (G:7,23% B:0,63%) | |
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| 5. | 4-ply | 10/2* | eq: +1,094 (-0,117) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 74,10% (G:55,12% B:1,26%)
25,90% (G:7,34% B:0,63%) | |
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XG prefers the hit from the very strong 4pt. Black has more than enough men on the zone and attacking on the two point is quite attractive. In addition the not-turned cube gives some more flexibility for black to play aggressively and possibly "cash" if things begin to go wrong. |
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| 31: Cannot Move |
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| 21: 9/6 |
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| XGID=-aaB--D-B---aE--aa-bbbbAbA:0:0:-1:21:0:0:0:17:10 |
Pip=159-115 |
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| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/11 9/8 | eq: +1,324 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80,75% (G:58,33% B:0,71%)
19,25% (G:3,14% B:0,14%) | |
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| 2. | XG Roller++ | 23/20 | eq: +1,300 (-0,024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79,90% (G:58,09% B:0,64%)
20,10% (G:3,59% B:0,19%) | |
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| 3. | XG Roller++ | 23/21 9/8 | eq: +1,292 (-0,032) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80,50% (G:56,65% B:0,71%)
19,50% (G:3,24% B:0,15%) | |
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| 4. | XG Roller++ | 13/10 | eq: +1,273 (-0,051) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79,31% (G:58,90% B:0,64%)
20,69% (G:3,77% B:0,19%) | |
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| 5. | XG Roller++ | 13/11 8/7 | eq: +1,250 (-0,074) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 78,91% (G:58,53% B:0,68%)
21,09% (G:3,79% B:0,18%) | |
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| 6. | XG Roller++ | 9/6 | eq: +1,234 (-0,090) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 78,50% (G:59,58% B:0,65%)
21,50% (G:4,11% B:0,20%) | |
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Nikos tried for a play that increases the chances that he will attack on Charis' 2 point blot, however he also gave some pretty good entering rolls for white, with 21 being a big joker. One more point to consider is that 8 and 7 points would be nice to make, in case white enters with a two, and 9/6 does not server that goal. |
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| 61: Cannot Move |
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| 65: 13/2* |
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| 51: Cannot Move |
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| 52: 23/16 |
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| 43: Cannot Move |
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| 31: 6/2 |
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| 52: Cannot Move |
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| 32: 16/11 |
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| 62: Cannot Move |
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| 41: 24/20 8/7 |
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| XGID=-a-B--D-B----Ea--a-bbbbbbB:0:0:-1:41:0:0:0:17:10 |
Pip=161-85 |
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| 62: Cannot Move |
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| 22: 20/14 11/9 |
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| 21: Cannot Move |
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| 53: 14/11 9/4 |
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| XGID=---B--D-B--a-E--a-abbbbbbB:0:0:-1:53:0:0:0:17:10 |
Pip=161-72 |
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| 1. | XG Roller++ | 14/11 9/4 | eq: +1,961 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 98,20% (G:96,13% B:0,58%)
1,80% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | |
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| 2. | XG Roller++ | 14/11 7/2 | eq: +1,958 (-0,004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 98,06% (G:96,01% B:0,56%)
1,94% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | |
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| 3. | XG Roller++ | 14/6 | eq: +1,955 (-0,006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 98,01% (G:95,86% B:0,57%)
1,99% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | |
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| 4. | XG Roller++ | 14/9 7/4 | eq: +1,955 (-0,006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 98,00% (G:95,77% B:0,60%)
2,00% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | |
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| 5. | XG Roller++ | 9/4 7/4 | eq: +1,951 (-0,010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 97,93% (G:95,43% B:0,58%)
2,07% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | |
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Preparing yourself against 66 is the primary goal in such positions. Next goal should be trying to bear in a checker on relatively high point (e.g. 4pt in here) and not bury checkers deep in. |
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| 52: Cannot Move |
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| 52: 11/6 7/5 |
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| 44: Cannot Move |
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| 64: 6/Off 5/1 |
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| XGID=---B--D-B----E-----cccbbbB:0:0:-1:64:0:0:0:17:10 |
Pip=161-57 |
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| 1. | XG Roller++ | 6/Off 5/1 | eq: +1,944 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 97,32% (G:95,51% B:0,80%)
2,68% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | |
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| 2. | XG Roller++ | 6/Off 4/Off | eq: +1,917 (-0,027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 96,25% (G:93,74% B:1,25%)
3,75% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | |
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| 3. | XG Roller++ | 6/2 6/Off | eq: +1,787 (-0,156) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 93,24% (G:86,13% B:0,64%)
6,76% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | |
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Nikos correctly chose the safest play, as gammon rate is really high anyway. |
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| 21: Cannot Move |
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| 22: 6/4 6/Off |
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| 55: Cannot Move |
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| 44: 5/1(2) 4/Off(2) |
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| XGID=---B--D-B----E------bdbbcB:0:0:-1:44:0:0:0:17:10 |
Pip=161-39 |
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| 1. | 4-ply | 5/1(2) 4/Off(2) | eq: +2,005 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 99,05% (G:98,14% B:1,56%)
0,95% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | |
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| 2. | 4-ply | 4/Off(4) | eq: +1,962 (-0,043) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 96,93% (G:93,86% B:4,45%)
3,07% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | |
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| 3. | 1-ply | 5/1 4/Off(3) | eq: +1,176 (-0,829) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 70,41% (G:59,59% B:2,33%)
29,59% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | |
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At such positions (really high gammon rates) we can see that the play that gives more gammons is the play that gives more wins (in contrast to the 4 checkers off play). The reason is that the most probable way white will save the gammon is the scenario where he manages to a checker. |
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| 54: Bar/20 |
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| 61: 4/3 4/Off |
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| 63: Bar/19 13/10 |
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| 31: 3/Off 1/Off |
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| 51: 20/15 19/18 |
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| 62: 3/Off 2/Off |
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| 21: 13/12 13/11 |
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| 66: 3/Off 2/Off 1/Off(2) |
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| 21: ???? |
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| 66: 1/Off(2) |
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| XGID=---B--E-A-AABA-A--A-----b-:0:0:-1:66:0:0:0:17:10 |
Pip=135-2 |
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| Wins a Gammon 2pts. |
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