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13 point match, Score is mman: 9, marcvd: 4

Quick Summary:

mman  Category marcvd 
Distracted (-0.1041) Total Error World Champ. (+0.0000)
Distracted (-0.1123) Checker Play World Champ. (+0.0000)
Beginner (-0.0548) Cube Play World Champ. (+0.0000)
52.03 Performance Rating 0.00

 62: 24/18 13/11 
Pip=167-167
 
1.playedBook124/18 13/11eq: +0.115
Player:
Opponent:		50.90% (G:12.92% B:0.56%)
49.10% (G:13.90% B:1.03%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.111...+0.119) - [100.0%]
2.Book113/5eq: +0.083 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		49.47% (G:14.31% B:0.57%)
50.53% (G:14.34% B:1.48%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.080...+0.087) - [0.0%]
3.Book124/16eq: +0.077 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		50.38% (G:11.97% B:0.50%)
49.62% (G:14.02% B:1.09%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.074...+0.081) - [0.0%]
4.Book213/11 13/7eq: +0.054 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		48.23% (G:13.70% B:0.66%)
51.77% (G:14.85% B:0.89%)
5.Book224/22 13/7eq: +0.040 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:		48.04% (G:12.81% B:0.48%)
51.96% (G:13.64% B:0.60%)
 
1 Generated by Steven Carey on 02-Aug-12 using eXtreme Gammon 2.10
23328 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69502489
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 21-May-11 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
 41: 24/20 8/7*  
Pip=167-159
 
1.playedXG Roller++24/20 8/7* eq: -0.211
Player:
Opponent:		47.33% (G:12.20% B:0.53%)
52.67% (G:13.58% B:0.60%)
2.XG Roller++13/9 8/7* eq: -0.229 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		47.46% (G:13.52% B:0.62%)
52.54% (G:15.03% B:0.94%)
3.XG Roller++24/23 24/20eq: -0.352 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent:		43.87% (G:9.84% B:0.37%)
56.13% (G:14.14% B:0.52%)
4.XG Roller++8/7* 7/3eq: -0.357 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		44.75% (G:11.81% B:0.49%)
55.25% (G:16.42% B:0.92%)
5.4-ply13/8eq: -0.376 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:		43.16% (G:10.57% B:0.34%)
56.84% (G:14.81% B:0.76%)
 No double 
Pip=162-166
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 52.67% (G:13.60% B:0.61%) 52.76% (G:13.59% B:0.59%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 47.33% (G:12.42% B:0.54%) 47.24% (G:12.58% B:0.54%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.027 +0.065
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.213
     Double/Take:+0.024 (-0.189)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.787)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.2%
 54: Bar/20 24/20 
Pip=162-166
 
1.played4-plyBar/20 24/20eq: +0.169
Player:
Opponent:		51.96% (G:10.69% B:0.37%)
48.04% (G:7.76% B:0.23%)
2.4-plyBar/16eq: -0.009 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:		47.83% (G:11.48% B:0.53%)
52.17% (G:15.65% B:0.71%)
3.4-plyBar/21 13/8eq: -0.020 (-0.189)
Player:
Opponent:		47.16% (G:11.46% B:0.49%)
52.84% (G:14.39% B:0.66%)
4.4-plyBar/21 11/6eq: -0.048 (-0.217)
Player:
Opponent:		46.59% (G:10.52% B:0.39%)
53.41% (G:13.57% B:0.49%)
5.4-plyBar/21 6/1* eq: -0.053 (-0.221)
Player:
Opponent:		46.51% (G:11.31% B:0.43%)
53.49% (G:15.40% B:0.82%)
 64: 24/20 13/7 
Pip=162-157
 
1.playedXG Roller++24/20 13/7eq: +0.005
Player:
Opponent:		50.84% (G:5.51% B:0.16%)
49.16% (G:5.34% B:0.16%)
2.XG Roller++24/14* eq: -0.112 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:		50.29% (G:9.13% B:0.27%)
49.71% (G:12.08% B:0.42%)
3.XG Roller++20/14* 14/10eq: -0.130 (-0.135)
Player:
Opponent:		49.63% (G:10.74% B:0.38%)
50.37% (G:12.63% B:0.48%)
4.XG Roller++24/20 7/1eq: -0.132 (-0.137)
Player:
Opponent:		47.33% (G:5.99% B:0.12%)
52.67% (G:6.78% B:0.25%)
5.4-ply20/14* 13/9eq: -0.164 (-0.169)
Player:
Opponent:		49.09% (G:9.56% B:0.31%)
50.91% (G:13.01% B:0.61%)
 54: 11/6 8/4 
Pip=152-157
 
1.playedXG Roller++11/6 8/4eq: -0.047
Player:
Opponent:		47.92% (G:4.72% B:0.11%)
52.08% (G:5.04% B:0.15%)
2.xgXG Roller++11/2eq: -0.049 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		47.93% (G:4.75% B:0.10%)
52.07% (G:5.33% B:0.17%)
3.XG Roller++13/8 11/7eq: -0.073 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		46.73% (G:5.57% B:0.14%)
53.27% (G:5.57% B:0.16%)
4.XG Roller++11/7 8/3eq: -0.098 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:		45.93% (G:5.88% B:0.15%)
54.07% (G:6.35% B:0.20%)
5.XG Roller++13/4eq: -0.101 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:		45.53% (G:6.77% B:0.17%)
54.47% (G:7.17% B:0.23%)
 63: 13/7 6/3 
Pip=152-148
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/7 6/3eq: +0.029
Player:
Opponent:		51.39% (G:5.43% B:0.16%)
48.61% (G:4.95% B:0.13%)
2.XG Roller++13/4eq: +0.028 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		51.34% (G:5.44% B:0.15%)
48.66% (G:4.88% B:0.13%)
3.XG Roller++13/10 13/7eq: +0.007 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		50.92% (G:6.38% B:0.19%)
49.08% (G:5.66% B:0.16%)
4.XG Roller++7/4 7/1eq: -0.057 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:		49.49% (G:6.07% B:0.12%)
50.51% (G:6.39% B:0.20%)
5.XG Roller++8/2 6/3eq: -0.074 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:		48.78% (G:7.83% B:0.21%)
51.22% (G:7.12% B:0.23%)
 62: 13/7 6/4 
Pip=143-148
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/7 6/4eq: -0.057
Player:
Opponent:		47.21% (G:5.89% B:0.14%)
52.79% (G:5.94% B:0.17%)
2.XG Roller++8/2 6/4eq: -0.118 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		45.40% (G:6.24% B:0.14%)
54.60% (G:7.17% B:0.23%)
3.XG Roller++8/6 8/2eq: -0.152 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:		44.78% (G:4.81% B:0.08%)
55.22% (G:6.15% B:0.19%)
4.XG Roller++13/7 4/2eq: -0.173 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:		43.91% (G:5.74% B:0.13%)
56.09% (G:6.90% B:0.23%)
5.XG Roller++8/2 4/2eq: -0.183 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:		43.57% (G:5.99% B:0.14%)
56.43% (G:7.29% B:0.23%)
 21: 20/18* 3/2 
Pip=143-140
 
1.xgRollout16/3eq: -0.023
Player:
Opponent:		49.14% (G:5.45% B:0.29%)
50.86% (G:5.43% B:0.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.033...-0.013) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 14 seconds
2.playedRollout120/18* 3/2eq: -0.318 (-0.295)
Player:
Opponent:		46.25% (G:9.58% B:0.53%)
53.75% (G:18.36% B:0.69%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.331...-0.305) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 17 seconds
3.XG Roller++7/4eq: -0.072 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:		48.62% (G:5.20% B:0.15%)
51.38% (G:5.25% B:0.13%)
4.XG Roller++6/4 3/2eq: -0.088 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:		48.28% (G:5.16% B:0.14%)
51.72% (G:5.58% B:0.15%)
5.XG Roller++8/7 8/6eq: -0.126 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:		47.16% (G:4.81% B:0.11%)
52.84% (G:5.50% B:0.16%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Για κάποιον ανεξήγητο λόγο πουλάω εντελώς αυτή τη παρτίδα. Οι λόγοι για να μην χτυπήσω είναι πολλοί και γνωστοί:
1) Έχει ισχυρότερο στρατόπεδο.
2) Έχω εσωτερικό blot.
3) Δεν είμαι πίσω στην κούρσα.
4) Είμαι σημαντικά μπροστά στο σκορ.

 No double 
Pip=140-158
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 53.64% (G:17.59% B:0.75%) 53.70% (G:17.87% B:0.73%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 46.36% (G:8.94% B:0.30%) 46.30% (G:9.11% B:0.34%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.135 +0.292
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.330
     Double/Take:+0.212 (-0.118)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.670)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.0%
 63: Bar/22 13/7*  
Pip=140-158
 
1.played4-plyBar/22 13/7* eq: +0.213
Player:
Opponent:		51.16% (G:14.75% B:0.57%)
48.84% (G:9.52% B:0.33%)
2.4-plyBar/16eq: +0.007 (-0.205)
Player:
Opponent:		46.75% (G:10.20% B:0.30%)
53.25% (G:6.80% B:0.20%)
3.3-plyBar/22 20/14eq: -0.202 (-0.415)
Player:
Opponent:		42.31% (G:10.30% B:0.40%)
57.69% (G:15.40% B:0.66%)
4.3-plyBar/22 8/2eq: -0.258 (-0.471)
Player:
Opponent:		40.12% (G:9.26% B:0.31%)
59.88% (G:12.42% B:0.38%)
 32: Bar/22 20/18*  
Pip=147-149
 
1.xgRollout1Bar/20eq: +0.115
Player:
Opponent:		53.62% (G:8.27% B:0.42%)
46.38% (G:7.55% B:0.23%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.102...+0.127) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 11 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/22 20/18* eq: -0.161 (-0.275)
Player:
Opponent:		49.90% (G:13.38% B:0.97%)
50.10% (G:17.02% B:0.74%)		Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.178...-0.144) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 52 seconds
3.3-plyBar/23 6/3* eq: -0.556 (-0.671)
Player:
Opponent:		41.63% (G:8.81% B:0.34%)
58.37% (G:21.85% B:1.29%)
4.2-plyBar/22 6/4eq: -0.647 (-0.761)
Player:
Opponent:		40.53% (G:8.49% B:0.31%)
59.47% (G:23.49% B:1.16%)
5.2-plyBar/23 7/4eq: -0.796 (-0.911)
Player:
Opponent:		39.03% (G:9.37% B:0.42%)
60.97% (G:26.43% B:1.49%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Τη γλίτωσα, αφού δεν μου χτύπησε το εσωτερικό blot, και έχω την ευκαρία να φτιάξω ξανά την 20. Αντί γι' αυτό, πάω ξανά γυρεύοντας, τη στιγμή που έχει πλέον τρία πούλια πίσω.

 11: Bar/23* 6/5(2) 
Pip=142-167
 
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/23* 6/5(2)eq: +0.566
Player:
Opponent:		59.22% (G:20.65% B:0.93%)
40.78% (G:7.94% B:0.29%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/24 8/7* 6/5(2)eq: +0.526 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		58.58% (G:20.93% B:1.06%)
41.42% (G:10.50% B:0.43%)
3.4-plyBar/23* 8/7*(2) eq: +0.373 (-0.193)
Player:
Opponent:		54.81% (G:17.43% B:0.81%)
45.19% (G:9.39% B:0.34%)
4.4-plyBar/23* 4/3*(2) eq: +0.362 (-0.204)
Player:
Opponent:		53.04% (G:20.18% B:1.02%)
46.96% (G:10.47% B:0.43%)
5.4-plyBar/23* 22/21 8/7* eq: +0.347 (-0.219)
Player:
Opponent:		53.53% (G:18.37% B:0.88%)
46.47% (G:10.41% B:0.40%)
 62: Bar/23 13/7 
Pip=165-163
 
1.xgRollout1Bar/23 22/16eq: -0.858
Player:
Opponent:		37.61% (G:8.09% B:1.27%)
62.39% (G:27.08% B:1.33%)		Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.878...-0.838) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 53 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/23 13/7eq: -0.961 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:		35.55% (G:8.72% B:1.41%)
64.45% (G:27.42% B:1.46%)		Conf.: ± 0.021 (-0.983...-0.940) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 37 seconds
3.XG Roller++Bar/23 7/1eq: -1.000 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:		32.78% (G:7.44% B:0.27%)
67.22% (G:29.95% B:2.04%)
4.4-plyBar/23 8/2* eq: -1.075 (-0.217)
Player:
Opponent:		28.45% (G:5.29% B:0.17%)
71.55% (G:36.33% B:4.22%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Σκέφτηκα ότι αν βγω, με χτυπάει με 6, 4, 1, 5 και 3, αλλά το ίδιο ισχύει και αν μείνω μέσα, γιατί βέβαια δεν θα διστάσει να με χτυπήσει και στο 2. Οπότε είναι σημαντικό να βγάλω το πούλι έξω. Επιπλεόν τα χτυπήματα στο outfield με 4 δεν προετοιμάζουν εσωτερική πόρτα.

 Double/Pass 
Pip=157-163
 
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.25% (G:27.10% B:1.46%) 64.22% (G:27.61% B:1.41%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.75% (G:8.66% B:0.58%) 35.78% (G:8.63% B:0.81%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.451 +1.027
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.772 (-0.173)±0.014 (+0.758..+0.786)
xg Double/Take:+0.945±0.022 (+0.923..+0.967)
played Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.055)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 29 minutes 46 seconds

Με τέσσερα απανωτά λάθη πουλάω τελείως την παρτίδα.
Η επίθεσή του είναι ισχυρή, αλλά όχι όσο φαίνεται  επειδή του λείπουν τέσσερα πούλια τα οποία αντιπροσωπεύουν πολλή δουλειά που πρέπει να γίνει για να φτάσει στη νίκη.
Φυσικά, δεν φοβήθηκα τις τόσο πολλές νίκες του, όσο το αυξημένο ποσοστό των διπλών σε συνδυασμό με το σημαντικό μου προβάδισμα στο σκορ.
Γενικά, πάντως, σπάνια μία θέση είναι πάσο με τον αντίπαλο να έχει τέσσερα πούλια στο στρατόπεδό μας. Για σύγκριση δείτε και τον βίδο στο δεύτερο game (σκορ  2-0/13).

 Wins 1pt. 
 

Game Summary:

mman  Category marcvd 
3(3)
-0.674(-3.18%)		 Move Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0.000
0
+0.000		 Double Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0.000
1
-0.055(-0.26%)		 Take Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0.000
0 Outplays 0
4(3)
-0.728(-3.44%)		 Total Error
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0.000
0
-0.209(-0.99%)		 Joker
Luck		 1
+0.209(+0.99%)
Distracted
52.03		 Level of Play
Performance Rating		 World Champ.
0.00
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Export made by eXtreme Gammon 2.10 ©2009-2012 GameSite 2000 Ltd.
on 30-Jul-19 4:09:48 PM