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13 point match, Score is mman: 9, marcvd: 5

Quick Summary:

mman  Category marcvd 
Advanced (-0.0153) Total Error World Class (-0.0053)
Expert (-0.0117) Checker Play World Class (-0.0062)
Intermediate (-0.0333) Cube Play World Champ. (+0.0000)
7.64 Performance Rating 2.64

 41: 13/9 6/5 
Pip=167-167
 
1.xgBook124/23 13/9eq: +0.110
Player:
Opponent:		49.99% (G:14.51% B:0.58%)
50.01% (G:14.25% B:1.23%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.107...+0.113) - [99.6%]
2.playedBook113/9 6/5eq: +0.104 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		49.93% (G:14.44% B:0.60%)
50.07% (G:15.29% B:1.94%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.101...+0.107) - [0.4%]
3.Book213/8eq: +0.076 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		48.69% (G:13.14% B:0.58%)
51.31% (G:13.67% B:0.59%)
4.Book224/23 24/20eq: +0.070 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		48.95% (G:12.19% B:0.51%)
51.05% (G:13.22% B:0.50%)
5.Book224/20 6/5eq: +0.058 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:		48.73% (G:12.22% B:0.47%)
51.27% (G:13.86% B:0.65%)
 
1 Generated by Dmitriy Obukhov on 02-Feb-13 using eXtreme Gammon 2.10
46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 21-May-11 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
 51: 24/23 13/8 
Pip=167-162
 
1.playedXG Roller++24/23 13/8eq: -0.433
Player:
Opponent:		43.61% (G:11.13% B:0.51%)
56.39% (G:17.11% B:0.70%)
2.xgXG Roller++13/8 6/5eq: -0.446 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		43.75% (G:11.77% B:0.57%)
56.25% (G:17.97% B:1.06%)
3.XG Roller++24/18eq: -0.499 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:		42.92% (G:10.00% B:0.48%)
57.08% (G:19.26% B:0.70%)
4.XG Roller++13/7eq: -0.568 (-0.135)
Player:
Opponent:		41.06% (G:10.64% B:0.48%)
58.94% (G:18.81% B:1.13%)
5.4-ply24/23 8/3eq: -0.635 (-0.202)
Player:
Opponent:		39.70% (G:10.13% B:0.47%)
60.30% (G:20.81% B:1.08%)
 No double 
Pip=161-162
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 56.60% (G:17.04% B:0.65%) 56.71% (G:17.07% B:0.67%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 43.40% (G:11.20% B:0.49%) 43.29% (G:11.10% B:0.51%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.167 +0.382
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.440
     Double/Take:+0.332 (-0.109)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.560)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.0%
 51: 13/8 6/5 
Pip=161-162
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/8 6/5eq: +0.417
Player:
Opponent:		55.88% (G:16.93% B:0.67%)
44.12% (G:11.45% B:0.57%)
2.XG Roller++9/4 6/5eq: +0.317 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:		53.86% (G:16.02% B:0.60%)
46.14% (G:12.38% B:0.69%)
3.XG Roller++9/4 5/4eq: +0.290 (-0.127)
Player:
Opponent:		53.35% (G:15.81% B:0.57%)
46.65% (G:12.00% B:0.55%)
4.XG Roller++6/5 6/1* eq: +0.276 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent:		53.03% (G:16.15% B:0.54%)
46.97% (G:13.13% B:0.75%)
5.XG Roller++8/3 6/5eq: +0.248 (-0.169)
Player:
Opponent:		52.31% (G:15.78% B:0.59%)
47.69% (G:13.65% B:0.87%)
 43: 13/10 13/9 
Pip=161-156
 
1.xgXG Roller++24/21 13/9eq: -0.811
Player:
Opponent:		37.28% (G:9.62% B:0.52%)
62.72% (G:22.41% B:1.12%)
2.XG Roller++13/6eq: -0.830 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		36.67% (G:9.44% B:0.46%)
63.33% (G:22.28% B:0.90%)
3.playedXG Roller++13/10 13/9eq: -0.860 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		36.87% (G:10.09% B:0.54%)
63.13% (G:23.45% B:1.58%)
4.XG Roller++13/9 8/5eq: -0.915 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:		37.29% (G:9.74% B:0.56%)
62.71% (G:25.79% B:2.10%)
5.XG Roller++13/9 6/3eq: -0.930 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:		36.70% (G:9.23% B:0.47%)
63.30% (G:25.30% B:1.83%)

Το παίξιμό μου παραείναι ανοιχτό, τη στιγμή που έχει κάνει την 5 και θα ήθελε πάρα πολύ ένα gammon για να ισοφαρίσει.
Το 24/21 έρχεται under the gun, αλλά προσπαθεί να φτιάξει μια καλή anchor και δεν αφήνει τέταρτο πούλι ανοιχτό.

 Double/Take 
Pip=154-156
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.14% (G:23.88% B:1.65%) 63.13% (G:24.22% B:1.72%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.86% (G:10.35% B:0.56%) 36.87% (G:10.39% B:0.58%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.394 +0.909
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.772 (-0.101)
played Double/Take:+0.873
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.127)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take

Πολύ σωστός βίδος, αφού ο Marc έχε αρκετά market losers και κυρίως δεν έχει καμία πολυτέλεια να χάσει ευκαιρία για διπλό σ' αυτό το σκορ.
Φυσικά, με ίση κούρσα και όντας έτοιμος να κάνω πρόοδο επιθετικά (κυρίως) ή αμυντικά, είναι ένα εύκολο take.

 62: 24/16*  
Pip=154-156
 
1.playedXG Roller++24/16* eq: +0.547
Player:
Opponent:		66.67% (G:23.91% B:1.82%)
33.33% (G:7.71% B:0.36%)
2.XG Roller++13/7 9/7eq: +0.394 (-0.153)
Player:
Opponent:		62.18% (G:20.93% B:1.17%)
37.82% (G:10.78% B:0.53%)
3.4-ply24/22 8/2* eq: +0.295 (-0.252)
Player:
Opponent:		57.80% (G:21.10% B:1.72%)
42.20% (G:13.00% B:0.86%)
4.4-ply13/11 8/2* eq: +0.280 (-0.267)
Player:
Opponent:		57.21% (G:21.13% B:1.61%)
42.79% (G:13.25% B:1.06%)
5.4-ply9/1* eq: +0.272 (-0.275)
Player:
Opponent:		57.26% (G:20.56% B:1.11%)
42.74% (G:12.01% B:0.67%)
 32: Bar/22 24/22 
Pip=170-148
 
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/22 24/22eq: -0.530
Player:
Opponent:		31.93% (G:6.60% B:0.25%)
68.07% (G:20.73% B:0.94%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 10/8eq: -0.637 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:		29.82% (G:6.22% B:0.25%)
70.18% (G:24.81% B:1.51%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/23 10/7eq: -0.651 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:		28.47% (G:6.00% B:0.23%)
71.53% (G:23.62% B:1.41%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/23 8/5eq: -0.661 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:		30.09% (G:6.26% B:0.26%)
69.91% (G:27.01% B:2.00%)
5.XG Roller++Bar/23 24/21eq: -0.679 (-0.149)
Player:
Opponent:		28.62% (G:5.86% B:0.25%)
71.38% (G:25.96% B:1.58%)
 42: 8/4 6/4 
Pip=165-148
 
1.playedXG Roller++8/4 6/4eq: +0.518
Player:
Opponent:		66.48% (G:22.59% B:1.18%)
33.52% (G:8.17% B:0.39%)
2.XG Roller++16/14 13/9eq: +0.507 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		68.65% (G:17.81% B:0.71%)
31.35% (G:6.61% B:0.23%)
3.XG Roller++24/22 13/9eq: +0.503 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		68.00% (G:18.75% B:0.83%)
32.00% (G:7.50% B:0.27%)
4.XG Roller++13/9 8/6eq: +0.498 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		67.74% (G:18.77% B:0.80%)
32.26% (G:7.14% B:0.27%)
5.XG Roller++13/9 6/4eq: +0.443 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:		65.29% (G:19.24% B:0.92%)
34.71% (G:9.65% B:0.48%)
 42: 13/11 13/9*  
Pip=165-142
 
1.xgXG Roller++8/4 6/4eq: -0.614
Player:
Opponent:		29.08% (G:5.85% B:0.26%)
70.92% (G:22.10% B:1.04%)
2.playedXG Roller++13/11 13/9* eq: -0.648 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		29.53% (G:7.12% B:0.37%)
70.47% (G:25.74% B:1.51%)
3.XG Roller++22/16* eq: -0.691 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:		30.88% (G:7.07% B:0.37%)
69.12% (G:30.41% B:2.60%)
4.XG Roller++10/4eq: -0.726 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:		25.67% (G:4.50% B:0.20%)
74.33% (G:24.53% B:1.12%)
5.XG Roller++13/9* 10/8eq: -0.737 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent:		26.65% (G:5.45% B:0.26%)
73.35% (G:27.14% B:1.46%)

Γενικά στα δύο τελευταία games παίζω πιο επιθετικά απ' ότι μου επιτρέπει το σημαντικό μου προβάδισμα στο σκορ. Εδώ δεν είμαι καθόλου υποχρεωμένος να χτυπήσω. Αντίθετα, είναι μια εξαιρετική ευκαιρία να ξεφορτώσω με τον καλύτερο τρόπο τις πόρτες 8 και 6.

 44: Bar/21 24/16* 13/9 
Pip=159-151
 
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/21 24/16* 13/9eq: +0.926
Player:
Opponent:		76.56% (G:35.51% B:2.21%)
23.44% (G:2.87% B:0.13%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/21 24/16* 16/12eq: +0.866 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:		75.28% (G:33.27% B:2.01%)
24.72% (G:3.57% B:0.18%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/21 24/16* 9/5eq: +0.865 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		73.90% (G:35.57% B:2.32%)
26.10% (G:3.74% B:0.18%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/21 24/16* 8/4eq: +0.853 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:		72.87% (G:36.41% B:2.52%)
27.13% (G:4.29% B:0.22%)
5.4-plyBar/21 13/9 6/2*(2) eq: +0.612 (-0.313)
Player:
Opponent:		66.90% (G:28.41% B:1.96%)
33.10% (G:6.25% B:0.30%)
 33: Bar/22 11/5 8/5 
Pip=175-135
 
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/22 11/5 8/5eq: -0.952
Player:
Opponent:		19.20% (G:2.54% B:0.11%)
80.80% (G:30.73% B:1.16%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 11/8 10/4* eq: -0.970 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		19.44% (G:2.61% B:0.10%)
80.56% (G:32.42% B:1.33%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/22 11/8 10/7 6/3eq: -0.992 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		18.24% (G:2.28% B:0.09%)
81.76% (G:32.02% B:1.25%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/22 11/8 6/3(2)eq: -0.995 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		18.02% (G:2.19% B:0.09%)
81.98% (G:31.94% B:1.19%)
5.XG Roller++Bar/22 10/7 8/5(2)eq: -0.996 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:		20.64% (G:2.81% B:0.13%)
79.36% (G:36.40% B:1.85%)
 52: 21/16 8/6 
Pip=163-135
 
1.xgXG Roller++21/14eq: +0.840
Player:
Opponent:		81.27% (G:21.03% B:0.61%)
18.73% (G:2.73% B:0.12%)
2.XG Roller++21/16 13/11eq: +0.839 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		81.71% (G:20.15% B:0.54%)
18.29% (G:2.54% B:0.10%)
3.playedXG Roller++21/16 8/6eq: +0.814 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		80.57% (G:20.16% B:0.56%)
19.43% (G:2.63% B:0.12%)
4.XG Roller++16/9eq: +0.788 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:		76.35% (G:25.82% B:1.01%)
23.65% (G:3.85% B:0.13%)
5.XG Roller++16/11 8/6eq: +0.757 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:		76.11% (G:23.95% B:0.90%)
23.89% (G:4.63% B:0.19%)
 43: 22/18 10/7 
Pip=163-128
 
1.playedXG Roller++22/18 10/7eq: -0.853
Player:
Opponent:		21.83% (G:3.29% B:0.15%)
78.17% (G:27.65% B:1.07%)
2.XG Roller++10/3eq: -0.853 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		18.24% (G:2.41% B:0.07%)
81.76% (G:21.24% B:0.59%)
3.XG Roller++10/7 8/4eq: -0.854 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		18.46% (G:2.67% B:0.10%)
81.54% (G:21.77% B:0.65%)
4.XG Roller++10/7 6/2eq: -0.867 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		17.72% (G:2.45% B:0.08%)
82.28% (G:21.41% B:0.59%)
5.XG Roller++10/6 8/5eq: -0.872 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		17.02% (G:1.95% B:0.05%)
82.98% (G:20.48% B:0.51%)

Το να βγω στο αντίπαλο bar είναι θεματικό. Αν τη γλιτώσω, ίσως καταφέρω να κάνω την πόρτα ή αλλιώς να διώξω το πούλι. Αν χτυπηθώ, ίσως φτιάξω ένα 2-3 backgame.

 51: 13/7*  
Pip=156-128
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/7* eq: +0.828
Player:
Opponent:		77.62% (G:26.55% B:1.15%)
22.38% (G:3.68% B:0.19%)
2.XG Roller++8/7* 7/2* eq: +0.808 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		75.69% (G:28.80% B:1.06%)
24.31% (G:4.35% B:0.21%)
3.XG Roller++16/11 8/7* eq: +0.722 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:		73.03% (G:26.78% B:1.38%)
26.97% (G:6.53% B:0.56%)
4.XG Roller++16/10eq: +0.683 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		75.88% (G:18.32% B:0.67%)
24.12% (G:4.04% B:0.18%)
5.XG Roller++16/15 16/11eq: +0.683 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		76.23% (G:17.54% B:0.63%)
23.77% (G:3.39% B:0.15%)
 65: Cannot Move 
Pip=163-122
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -0.970
Player:
Opponent:		19.42% (G:1.97% B:0.11%)
80.58% (G:32.25% B:1.18%)
 42: 13/7 
Pip=163-122
 
1.xgRollout19/7 6/2* eq: +1.021
Player:
Opponent:		82.44% (G:33.08% B:1.12%)
17.56% (G:2.20% B:0.25%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.014...+1.028) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 31 seconds
2.playedRollout113/7eq: +0.950 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:		81.74% (G:28.42% B:0.87%)
18.26% (G:1.69% B:0.28%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.943...+0.956) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 58 seconds
3.XG Roller++16/14 6/2* eq: +0.967 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		80.72% (G:32.15% B:1.09%)
19.28% (G:2.88% B:0.25%)
4.XG Roller++13/11 6/2* eq: +0.953 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:		80.30% (G:31.77% B:1.08%)
19.70% (G:2.73% B:0.14%)
5.XG Roller++16/12 9/7eq: +0.918 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:		80.37% (G:28.58% B:1.07%)
19.63% (G:2.07% B:0.12%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Το εξάπορτο είναι φυσικά ελκυστικο, αλλά εδώ ο Marc έπρεπε να πάει για το gammon. Γενικά σε τέτοιες θέσεις και σε τέτοιο σκορ, όπως λένε και οι Αμερικάνοι, you go for the throat. Οπότε εδώ κύριο μέλημά του είναι να αποτρέψει το backgame.

 65: Cannot Move 
Pip=163-116
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -1.045
Player:
Opponent:		18.78% (G:1.76% B:0.09%)
81.22% (G:37.13% B:1.29%)
 41: 16/15 6/2*  
Pip=163-116
 
1.playedXG Roller++16/15 6/2* eq: +1.058
Player:
Opponent:		82.97% (G:35.09% B:1.11%)
17.03% (G:1.24% B:0.06%)
2.XG Roller++6/2* 2/1eq: +1.049 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		82.81% (G:34.80% B:1.01%)
17.19% (G:1.58% B:0.07%)
3.XG Roller++9/8 6/2* eq: +0.995 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:		80.58% (G:34.47% B:1.21%)
19.42% (G:2.34% B:0.11%)
4.XG Roller++8/7 6/2* eq: +0.964 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:		79.10% (G:34.86% B:1.17%)
20.90% (G:3.01% B:0.14%)
5.XG Roller++7/2* eq: +0.946 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:		78.23% (G:35.08% B:1.19%)
21.77% (G:3.30% B:0.17%)
 63: Bar/22 
Pip=165-111
 
1.played3-plyBar/22eq: -1.017
Player:
Opponent:		15.00% (G:0.95% B:0.03%)
85.00% (G:28.41% B:0.52%)
 32: 16/14 15/12 
Pip=162-111
 
1.XG Roller++15/10eq: +1.003
Player:
Opponent:		85.29% (G:26.71% B:0.51%)
14.71% (G:0.90% B:0.03%)
2.playedXG Roller++16/14 15/12eq: +1.000 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		85.36% (G:26.41% B:0.48%)
14.64% (G:0.85% B:0.03%)
3.XG Roller++16/11eq: +0.999 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		85.22% (G:26.52% B:0.50%)
14.78% (G:0.89% B:0.03%)
4.XG Roller++16/13 15/13eq: +0.996 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		85.26% (G:26.23% B:0.47%)
14.74% (G:0.82% B:0.02%)
5.XG Roller++9/7 9/6eq: +0.906 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:		81.44% (G:26.04% B:0.67%)
18.56% (G:2.10% B:0.09%)
 31: Bar/24 7/4 
Pip=162-106
 
1.Rollout1Bar/22 6/5eq: -0.910
Player:
Opponent:		14.39% (G:0.77% B:0.05%)
85.61% (G:18.48% B:0.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.914...-0.905) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 40 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/24 7/4eq: -0.992 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:		15.70% (G:1.23% B:0.06%)
84.30% (G:27.39% B:0.55%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.997...-0.986) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 28 seconds
3.xgXG Roller++Bar/22 8/7eq: -0.916 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		14.49% (G:0.76% B:0.01%)
85.51% (G:19.36% B:0.25%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/22 5/4eq: -0.922 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		14.32% (G:0.77% B:0.01%)
85.68% (G:19.57% B:0.27%)
5.XG Roller++Bar/22 7/6eq: -0.925 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		14.20% (G:0.76% B:0.01%)
85.80% (G:19.58% B:0.25%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Το πούλι στο 24 δεν εξηπυρετεί τίποτα, αντίθετα, μπορεί να αποτελέσει στόχο. Εφόσον δεν μπορώ πλέον να φτιάξω δεύτερη πόρτα ο στόχος μου θα έπρεπε να είναι να κόψω την παρτίδα και αν έρθει κάποια βολή θα είναι ευπρόσδεκτο bonus.

 33: 14/2 
Pip=158-106
 
1.playedXG Roller++14/2eq: +0.970
Player:
Opponent:		83.12% (G:28.16% B:0.50%)
16.88% (G:1.25% B:0.05%)
2.xgXG Roller++14/8 12/6eq: +0.967 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		83.37% (G:27.40% B:0.50%)
16.63% (G:1.26% B:0.04%)
3.XG Roller++14/5 12/9eq: +0.951 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		82.68% (G:27.46% B:0.50%)
17.32% (G:1.36% B:0.04%)
4.XG Roller++14/11 8/5 8/2eq: +0.950 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		82.13% (G:28.29% B:0.61%)
17.87% (G:1.48% B:0.06%)
5.XG Roller++7/1*(2) eq: +0.936 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		78.55% (G:34.01% B:0.65%)
21.45% (G:2.54% B:0.12%)

Χαρακτηριστικό του ότι το πούλι στο 24 είναι αδυναμία, είναι το πόσο μικρό λαθος είναι το 7/1*(2).

 42: 24/22 8/4 
Pip=158-94
 
1.playedXG Roller++24/22 8/4eq: -0.873
Player:
Opponent:		16.80% (G:1.09% B:0.02%)
83.20% (G:20.21% B:0.23%)
2.XG Roller++24/22 6/2eq: -0.899 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		16.45% (G:1.03% B:0.01%)
83.55% (G:21.68% B:0.30%)
3.XG Roller++24/22 5/1eq: -0.966 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:		14.62% (G:0.92% B:0.01%)
85.38% (G:23.67% B:0.38%)
4.XG Roller++8/4 6/4eq: -0.970 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:		18.12% (G:1.47% B:0.03%)
81.88% (G:30.44% B:0.55%)
5.XG Roller++6/4 6/2eq: -0.986 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:		17.91% (G:1.48% B:0.03%)
82.09% (G:31.36% B:0.58%)
 65: 12/1 
Pip=152-94
 
1.playedXG Roller++12/1eq: +0.856
Player:
Opponent:		82.01% (G:21.07% B:0.16%)
17.99% (G:1.01% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++7/2 7/1eq: +0.713 (-0.143)
Player:
Opponent:		75.66% (G:21.18% B:0.23%)
24.34% (G:2.18% B:0.07%)
3.XG Roller++12/6 9/4eq: +0.706 (-0.150)
Player:
Opponent:		76.47% (G:19.13% B:0.20%)
23.53% (G:2.14% B:0.07%)
4.4-ply12/7 8/2eq: +0.637 (-0.219)
Player:
Opponent:		73.90% (G:18.34% B:0.22%)
26.10% (G:2.74% B:0.07%)
5.4-ply12/6 7/2eq: +0.607 (-0.249)
Player:
Opponent:		72.43% (G:18.62% B:0.24%)
27.57% (G:3.01% B:0.09%)
 52: 8/3 6/4 
Pip=152-83
 
1.playedXG Roller++8/3 6/4eq: -0.854
Player:
Opponent:		18.06% (G:1.23% B:0.02%)
81.94% (G:21.06% B:0.19%)
2.XG Roller++8/3 5/3eq: -0.877 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		17.20% (G:1.11% B:0.02%)
82.80% (G:21.29% B:0.20%)
3.XG Roller++8/6 8/3eq: -0.883 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		17.02% (G:1.12% B:0.02%)
82.98% (G:21.49% B:0.20%)
4.XG Roller++8/3 4/2eq: -0.893 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		17.99% (G:1.27% B:0.02%)
82.01% (G:24.02% B:0.29%)
5.XG Roller++6/4 6/1eq: -0.908 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:		16.83% (G:1.01% B:0.02%)
83.17% (G:23.09% B:0.23%)
 31: 9/8 9/6 
Pip=145-83
 
1.playedXG Roller++9/8 9/6eq: +0.841
Player:
Opponent:		83.13% (G:17.72% B:0.13%)
16.87% (G:0.96% B:0.03%)
2.XG Roller++8/7 8/5eq: +0.815 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		81.80% (G:18.08% B:0.15%)
18.20% (G:1.11% B:0.03%)
3.XG Roller++7/6 7/4eq: +0.798 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		80.26% (G:19.49% B:0.20%)
19.74% (G:1.30% B:0.03%)
4.XG Roller++9/6 2/1eq: +0.699 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:		75.85% (G:19.76% B:0.23%)
24.15% (G:2.45% B:0.07%)
5.XG Roller++9/5eq: +0.695 (-0.146)
Player:
Opponent:		75.64% (G:19.75% B:0.25%)
24.36% (G:2.48% B:0.07%)
 63: 22/16 6/3 
Pip=145-79
 
1.playedXG Roller++22/16 6/3eq: -0.739
Player:
Opponent:		18.15% (G:1.10% B:0.02%)
81.85% (G:11.76% B:0.08%)
2.xgXG Roller++22/13eq: -0.748 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		17.67% (G:1.05% B:0.02%)
82.33% (G:11.60% B:0.09%)
3.XG Roller++22/16 8/5eq: -0.754 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		17.31% (G:1.01% B:0.02%)
82.69% (G:11.44% B:0.09%)
4.XG Roller++22/16 4/1eq: -0.787 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:		16.78% (G:0.93% B:0.01%)
83.22% (G:13.14% B:0.12%)
5.XG Roller++22/16 5/2eq: -0.802 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:		17.55% (G:1.07% B:0.02%)
82.45% (G:15.71% B:0.24%)
 65: 8/2 6/1 
Pip=136-79
 
1.playedRollout18/2 6/1eq: +0.682
Player:
Opponent:		79.36% (G:11.60% B:0.05%)
20.64% (G:1.60% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.678...+0.686) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 17 seconds
2.Rollout17/2 7/1eq: +0.637 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:		77.41% (G:11.66% B:0.06%)
22.59% (G:1.81% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.634...+0.641) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 20 seconds
3.3-ply7/1 6/1eq: +0.359 (-0.323)
Player:
Opponent:		65.11% (G:11.81% B:0.13%)
34.89% (G:3.59% B:0.05%)
4.3-ply8/2 7/2eq: +0.321 (-0.361)
Player:
Opponent:		63.80% (G:11.34% B:0.13%)
36.20% (G:4.20% B:0.07%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Ένα πούλι θα θαφτεί έτσι κι αλλιώς. Μου αρέσει το 7/2 7/1. Δημιουργεί μια μικρή τρύπα στο bar, αλλά έχει μεγαλύτερη ευελιξία με τα δύο spares.

 63: 22/13 
Pip=136-68
 
1.playedXG Roller++22/13eq: -0.663
Player:
Opponent:		20.43% (G:1.29% B:0.03%)
79.57% (G:9.77% B:0.04%)
2.XG Roller++22/16 8/5eq: -0.675 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		19.92% (G:1.26% B:0.03%)
80.08% (G:9.85% B:0.04%)
3.XG Roller++16/7eq: -0.676 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		20.52% (G:1.44% B:0.03%)
79.48% (G:11.03% B:0.05%)
4.XG Roller++16/13 8/2eq: -0.680 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		20.86% (G:1.41% B:0.03%)
79.14% (G:11.98% B:0.06%)
5.XG Roller++22/16 6/3eq: -0.681 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		20.56% (G:1.28% B:0.03%)
79.44% (G:11.55% B:0.06%)

Ο κίνδυνος του διπλού απομακρύνεται.

 52: 7/5 7/2 
Pip=127-68
 
1.playedXG Roller++7/5 7/2eq: +0.592
Player:
Opponent:		76.69% (G:9.18% B:0.06%)
23.31% (G:1.87% B:0.06%)
2.XG Roller++6/4 6/1eq: +0.496 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:		73.43% (G:7.34% B:0.04%)
26.57% (G:2.37% B:0.07%)
3.3-ply8/1eq: +0.236 (-0.355)
Player:
Opponent:		60.84% (G:9.78% B:0.18%)
39.16% (G:4.25% B:0.10%)
4.3-ply8/6 7/2eq: +0.046 (-0.546)
Player:
Opponent:		52.53% (G:10.32% B:0.20%)
47.47% (G:7.48% B:0.22%)
5.2-ply7/5 6/1eq: -0.150 (-0.742)
Player:
Opponent:		45.77% (G:8.15% B:0.11%)
54.23% (G:12.59% B:0.49%)
 53: 16/11 13/10 
Pip=127-61
 
1.xgXG Roller++16/8eq: -0.596
Player:
Opponent:		22.80% (G:1.58% B:0.04%)
77.20% (G:8.63% B:0.03%)
2.playedXG Roller++16/11 13/10eq: -0.600 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		22.58% (G:1.62% B:0.04%)
77.42% (G:8.60% B:0.04%)
3.XG Roller++16/11 8/5eq: -0.604 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		22.38% (G:1.65% B:0.05%)
77.62% (G:8.64% B:0.03%)
4.XG Roller++13/5eq: -0.608 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		22.30% (G:1.65% B:0.05%)
77.70% (G:8.85% B:0.04%)
5.XG Roller++16/13 8/3eq: -0.612 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		22.60% (G:1.55% B:0.04%)
77.40% (G:9.57% B:0.03%)
 54: 6/2 6/1 
Pip=119-61
 
1.played3-ply6/2 6/1eq: +0.447
Player:
Opponent:		71.86% (G:6.07% B:0.03%)
28.14% (G:1.65% B:0.00%)
2.3-ply6/1 5/1eq: +0.047 (-0.400)
Player:
Opponent:		54.84% (G:5.96% B:0.05%)
45.16% (G:5.78% B:0.14%)
3.3-ply8/4 6/1eq: -0.110 (-0.557)
Player:
Opponent:		47.62% (G:7.49% B:0.10%)
52.38% (G:10.10% B:0.34%)
 66: 22/4 11/5 
Pip=119-52
 
1.xgXG Roller++22/10 11/5 8/2eq: -0.565
Player:
Opponent:		20.90% (G:0.83% B:0.02%)
79.10% (G:2.24% B:0.01%)
2.playedXG Roller++22/4 11/5eq: -0.571 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		20.61% (G:0.74% B:0.02%)
79.39% (G:1.94% B:0.01%)
3.XG Roller++22/16 11/5 10/4 8/2eq: -0.572 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		20.86% (G:0.74% B:0.02%)
79.14% (G:2.63% B:0.01%)
4.XG Roller++22/4 8/2eq: -0.572 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		20.80% (G:0.78% B:0.02%)
79.20% (G:2.64% B:0.01%)
5.XG Roller++22/4 10/4eq: -0.592 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		19.65% (G:0.69% B:0.02%)
80.35% (G:2.23% B:0.01%)
 54: 8/4 8/3*  
Pip=95-52
 
1.played4-ply8/4 8/3* eq: +0.410
Player:
Opponent:		71.78% (G:2.86% B:0.01%)
28.22% (G:1.10% B:0.04%)
2.4-ply8/3* 5/1eq: +0.200 (-0.210)
Player:
Opponent:		63.61% (G:2.16% B:0.00%)
36.39% (G:6.34% B:0.22%)
 54: Cannot Move 
Pip=98-43
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -0.826
Player:
Opponent:		10.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.26% (G:5.14% B:0.02%)
 65: 5/Off(2) 
Pip=98-43
 
1.played3-ply5/Off(2)eq: +0.039
Player:
Opponent:		54.41% (G:3.98% B:0.01%)
45.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 31: Bar/22* 4/3 
Pip=98-33
 
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/22* 4/3eq: +0.760
Player:
Opponent:		79.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
20.32% (G:2.61% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22* 10/9eq: +0.653 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:		76.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.53% (G:2.70% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/22* 8/7eq: +0.627 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:		75.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.29% (G:3.46% B:0.03%)
4.4-plyBar/22* 6/5eq: +0.589 (-0.171)
Player:
Opponent:		73.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
26.42% (G:3.04% B:0.02%)
5.4-plyBar/22* 5/4eq: +0.578 (-0.182)
Player:
Opponent:		73.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
26.97% (G:3.15% B:0.02%)
 66: Cannot Move 
Pip=94-55
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		12.05% (G:0.87% B:0.01%)
87.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 No double 
Pip=94-55
 
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 87.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 88.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 12.21% (G:0.80% B:0.01%) 11.44% (G:0.98% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.746 +1.538
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.900 (-0.100)±0.002 (+0.898..+0.902)
     Redouble/Take:+1.088 (+0.088)±0.008 (+1.080..+1.095)
xg Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 54 seconds

Τα holding game του 22 δημιουργούν λιγότερες βολές αλλά πολύ πιο νωρίς. Μετά από τις συνεχείς άτυχες ζαριές του αντιπάλου, η θέση μου έχει μετατραπεί από εξαιρετικά επικίνδυνη σε πρακτικά κερδισμένη.
Ήξερα ότι εδώ μπορεί να είχα cash, αλλά είναι εξαιρετικά δύσκολο να υπολογιστεί το take point του (το οποίο σίγουρα είναι πολύ χαμηλό) και αποφάσισα να μην ακουμπήσω όλο το ματς σ' αυτη την παρτίδα. Από τα λάθη που δεν με ενοχλούν.

 42: 22/20* 20/16 
Pip=94-55
 
1.playedXG Roller++22/20* 20/16eq: +0.989
Player:
Opponent:		95.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.88% (G:0.23% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++22/20* 8/4eq: +0.988 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		93.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
6.14% (G:0.27% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++22/20* 10/6eq: +0.987 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		95.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.71% (G:0.19% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++22/20* 6/2eq: +0.975 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		93.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
6.92% (G:1.33% B:0.02%)
5.XG Roller++22/20* 5/1eq: +0.973 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		92.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
7.11% (G:1.26% B:0.02%)
 54: Cannot Move 
Pip=88-75
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		3.48% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
96.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 Double/Pass 
Pip=88-75
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 96.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 96.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 3.36% (G:0.09% B:0.00%) 3.38% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.932 +1.923
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.998 (-0.002)
     Redouble/Take:+1.781 (+0.781)
played Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
 Wins 2pts. 
 

Game Summary:

mman  Category marcvd 
3(1)
-0.175(-1.72%)		 Move Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 2
-0.106(-1.19%)
1(1)
-0.100(-1.16%)		 Double Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0.000
0
+0.000		 Take Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0.000
0 Outplays 0
4(2)
-0.275(-2.89%)		 Total Error
Equity lost (cost)		 2
-0.106(-1.19%)
2
+0.909(+14.93%)		 Joker
Luck		 3
-0.909(-14.93%)
Advanced
7.64		 Level of Play
Performance Rating		 World Class
2.64
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on 30-Jul-19 4:09:49 PM